2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It is difficult to predict what will happen. Previously we've had a 1.5 horse race, with the Tories and a small Liberal party.

With Wildrose taking votes from the PC Party, and with a stronger NDP and a Liberal party that's not vanishing, it could be a mess in places like Edmonton, with a good chance that most ridings in the city will be won on less than 40% if not 35% of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

not just hockey

Or football. C'mon, it's Grey Cup night! (though neither Alberta teams are in it)

[MaxQue]

Here it is.
Sorry Smid, I borrowed your key without asking you, but I wanted to do the map while I had time to do it, i.e. before exam weeks which are coming soon.

[Smid]

Sorry Smid, I borrowed your key without asking you, but I wanted to do the map while I had time to do it, i.e. before exam weeks which are coming soon.

Great work!

My key? Nah - I don't know how to make one of them (probably could figure it out playing in Paint, or whatever, but haven't done that yet). I made the key by going through the different maps posted in the gallery and saving the colour scheme/keys from them. I have a little file of them I keep in my Elections Folder, which has 12 different colour schemes that I've found, although one of the dark red/maroon ones only has seven shades/boxes. Don't apologise for borrowing from me what I've previously borrowed from others...

[MaxQue]

Thanks Smid.

It is quite ironic than the town where René Lévesque grew voted at 78% for Liberals. Well, it is a majority Anglophone-town, which explains some things. (New Carlisle)

PQ won 5 vote sections.
One in the former town of Saint-Omer (just west of Carleton).
One is in Paspébiac.
The three others are the former town of Gascons, which is very Francophone and is not very like the rest of the riding.

Government went through a series of mergers there at the beginning of the 00's. Carleton and Saint-Omer became Carleton--Saint-Omer, then Carleton-sur-Mer. Gascons and Port-Daniel became Port-Daniel--Gascons.

Doubles tirets are long tirets, in fact. Like in federal ridings names.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent. Merci, Max!

[Smid]

Do we have a thread for Canadian demographic maps? BC has a handy spreadsheet of provincial ridings and various demographic details and I was thinking of translating some into maps. I uploaded a % renting into the gallery today and was wondering if we had a thread in which to park it and any others I do in the meantime?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, I think we've just tended to shoehorn any such maps into elections threads. But it would be a good idea.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry to bump, but my Yukon analysis has been posted: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/12/yukon-election-2011-results-analysis.html

[lilTommy]

Sorry to bump, but my Yukon analysis has been posted: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/12/yukon-election-2011-results-analysis.html

Good review, I just want to give the NDP another big congrats; although it looks like a gain of 3 since 2006, the NDP, as you noted lost, a seat when Edzerza became and Indie, but also Steve Cardiff died in a car accident leaving only Hanson as the long dipper in the assembly... so the NDP "picked-up" 5 seats this election.

[DL]

There seems to be an incredible amount of party switching in the Yukon legislature. It seems like almost every seat has someone running who ran before for another party etc...any explanation for that?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Yukon is much more about candidates and personality (especially in rural areas) than about party label.

[Hatman 🍁]

Finally, my last post for provincial elections of the year,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/12/saskatchewan-2011-election-results.html

But I have to post about the BC municipal elections and the Bonaventure by-election still.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Earl, can you provide a frontpage link to 506's polling thing website? I keep clicking on your website by accident in my bookmarks while looking for his.

[Smid]

Another thorough analysis!

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, can you provide a frontpage link to 506's polling thing website? I keep clicking on your website by accident in my bookmarks while looking for his.

There's a link to it on my blog, on the right, but it's here: http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

[Hatman 🍁]

Not sure where to post this, but a new poll from BC is very interesting:

http://www.straight.com/article-574381/vancouver/christy-clark-faces-bigger-risk-bc-voters-if-adrian-dix-stays-front-polls

NDP: 34
Lib: 23
Cons: 23

This is a provincial poll by the way.

[bgwah]

Haven't the Conservatives polled well before and not seen it materialize?

[Hatman 🍁]

Haven't the Conservatives polled well before and not seen it materialize?

I dont think I've seen them poll this well before. Certainly not tied with with the governing party. But perhaps this shows worse for the BC Liberals than anything else.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Over at Blunt Objects http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/ the Blog I participate at *cough cough* we've examined this and another poll showing the following:

36% BC NDP
32% BC Liberal
19% BC Conservative
13% "Other"

The reality, it seems, is the BC-Cons are actually going to be a threat for a few seats next election.

[Хahar 🤔]

They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

[RogueBeaver]

They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

Of course they are. In due time the Tories might surpass or exceed the Liberals.

[You kip if you want to...]

How's Christie Clark doing anyway?

[Hatman 🍁]

Over at Blunt Objects http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/ the Blog I participate at *cough cough*

No offence, but that guy is a Liberal.... waste of space.

[RogueBeaver]

How's Christie Clark doing anyway?

Horribly in the polls. That's why she's delaying the inevitable till next May.