2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Holmes]

Bye bye, Ontario Liberals. It probably pleases the Tories that the seats the NDP will pick up are all Liberal ones. Tentatively, anyway.

I wonder if any Liberal -> NDP voters from the federal election will remain so in October. I'm sure the Liberal -> Tory voters are more likely to stay loyal to the Conservatives, especially with McGuinty as leader. Also, if Rocco Rossi is elected, I will puke.

[Holmes]

Tim Hudak as Premier is an horrible thought. Harpo + Hudak.

Ontario seems to be going through quite some Conservative phase, no? Definitely doesn't help that most of Southern Ontario has aligned itself with the Tories indefinitely.

[Holmes]

disappointing, I'd hoped the NDP would be higher. 

I guess. But Ontario's Liberal party (although in bad shape) isn't in shambles compared to its federal counterpart. And there are quite a bit of people who won't be voting for the provincial NDP party after Rae's government, so it'll be a while until they're in the minority. Not to say the NDP can't improve on that 19%, but maybe the 26% it got in the federal election may be its provincial ceiling for the time being.

[Holmes]

Just got a call from the PC Party of Ontario. It was an old lady so I acted polite. But damn, they're already calling people? Especially in northern Ontario? They must want this. lol

[Holmes]

The BC Liberals must be afraid of the BC Conservatives. Why else would they take a page from the NDP playbook and raise the minimum wage, and promise to reduce the HST to 10% if voters keep it? With the possible emergence of the BC Conservatives, they seem to be pushing the NDP further to the left... will it work?

[Holmes]

NDP holds Welland federally as well... although, it'll probably swing away from the NDP and be close, just as it was in 2011. Hopefully they capture Windsor West - and Tecumseh!

[Holmes]

New Ipsos-Reid poll on Ontario.

PC - 40%
Liberals - 34%
NDP - 20%
Green - 6%

Link

Couldn't find it on Ipsos' site - not yet, anyway. mega lol @ Northern Ontario being McGuinty's strongest region, and Hudak being a close second. ok, ipsos.

[Holmes]

Not exactly. The Toronto Sun published an article the other week about how the PCs are taking the race for granted, and how that helps - "yikes!" - the NDP (in their words). Was probably stealth advice, though.

Not that it matters though. Who's really paying attention to the provincial race now, anyway? Might as well wait until the end of August until things start to get interesting.

[Holmes]

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/06/23/socialism-is-not-a-dirty-word-horwath

At least Fox News is a little discreet. Everything about this article screams "conservative hackness", from the title, to the screencap.

[Holmes]

Hatman, how would you have voted for the resolution at the NDP convention to remove the mention of socialism in the constitution's preamble? I probably would've leaned towards replacing it with social democracy, but of course I would've considered it more had I been there.

[Holmes]

Really!? I'm jealous! I knew you went to the Halifax convention, but I had no idea you were going to Vancouver. Hum, I wish I had the opportunity to go.

[Holmes]

If the Tories have a minority, the NDP propping up the Liberals, or forming a coalition with them, with McGuinty still as the leader of the Liberals would be suicide.

[Holmes]

Howard Hampton retiring.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1032630--former-ndp-leader-howard-hampton-quits

Hmm...

[Holmes]

If the Liberal-NDP numbers tighten up just a bit more, the NDP might be looking at opposition status.

[Holmes]

Should probably wait until mid-September to really take Ontario polling seriously.

[Holmes]

Having an NDP MPP in York West would probably make me cream myself. Assistant to Perruzza = endorsed. But I just can't see it happening. If these people re-elected Sgro of all people, why would they they not re-elect Sergio because he's old?

Ontario's election is in five weeks, are we going to have a separate thread for it eventually?

[Holmes]

Newfoundland, PEI and Saskatchewan will be a total snooze. Manitoba is turning into one as well. Ontario is turning into a real race. We need a BC election as well! That would be dirty. And Yukon can be very interesting as well. Or boring. Unpredictable.

[Holmes]

Manitoba poll has come out today showing a massive NDP lead.

Expect a projection to come out from me later in the week.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/breakingnews/manitoba-tories-hold-slight-lead-in-new-environics-opinion-poll-130576928.html

?

[Holmes]

NDP becoming the anti-Tory party... hopefully they can build on that for future elections and try to win the Premiership. Or translate that into federal support outside of St. John's.

[Holmes]

Why can't the NDP compete in rural NL?

[Holmes]

PC now leading in 7 ridings so far... looking forward to the maps. The Prince Edward Island NDP must be the least successful NDP party in the country right now.

[Holmes]

Montague - Kilmuir is only 45 votes - 44 votes for PC though, hardly anything to make conclusions with. (edit: Liberals retook the lead)

PC doing better than expected in the popular vote, but it's not like there were a lot of recent polls to go by anyway. 308 guy screws up on this one.

[Holmes]

NDP ahead in Kildonan.

yawn.

[Holmes]

Swan River will be fierce.

[Holmes]

Liberals in third in River Heights. Who thinks they'll hold on?