2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Nichlemn]

Based on the most recent polling, all but PEI appear poised to go PC (or Sask Party, the de facto PC).

[Nichlemn]

NWT also has an election in October (same day as PEI)


Monday Oct 3rd - PEI/NWT (1st Mon/Oct)
Tuesday, Oct 4th - MAN (1st Tues/Oct)
Thur, Oct 6th (1st Thur/Oct)
Tuesday, Oct 11th - NFLD (2nd Tues/Oct)
Monday, Nov 7th - SASK (1st Mon/NOV)


In 2015, these provinces will have to compete with the next federal election on Oct 19, 2015 (3rd Monday in October). If another majoirity gov't the process will repeat in 2019.

It might be an idea to have a 4 year electon calendar like in USA.

Year 1 - Federal Election
Year 2 - Local Elections (some of the provinces)
Year 3 - Provincal Elections
Year 4 - Local Electionss (rest of the provinces)

The provincal and local elections do not have to be on same day.

The problem is that in the parliamentary system, legislatures can be dissolved early even with fixed election dates (as we've seen recently in federal elections).

There are a few ways to mitigate this. The first is to have US-style legislatures that cannot have early elections. If a government falls, a new one must be appointed.

The second is to have "by-elections", similar to how Utah has special gubernatorial elections. If a government falls and a new election is held, the new term only runs until the last one would have ended.

The third (and my preferred choice) is to have "equilibrium-seeking" elections. If a new election is held more than two years before the original fixed date, the new term runs until that date like a by-election. If a new election is held less than two years before the original fixed date, the new term runs until that date plus 4 years. This stops a fixed term from being shorter than 2 years or longer than 6 years.

[Nichlemn]

Interesting McFayden stepped down so easily.  While not the ideal outcome for the PCs, it would hardly call it unmitigated disaster.  This seemed more the case of Selinger improving his popularity thus being re-elected, not like here in Ontario where McGuinty has flatlined in popularity and only gone up due to Hudak's drop in popularity.  I wonder if Hudak will do the same, although lets see what the actual results are before speculating.  It does though look like all five provinces this fall will stick with the same party.  I do wonder if this has less to do with moving right or left and more during difficult times, people prefer to stick with what they know rather than try something different.

Seems odd given the conventional wisdom is that incumbents do badly in tough times.

[Nichlemn]

All these Ontario avatars confuse me

[Nichlemn]

What was the SP's strongest seat?

[Nichlemn]

Any (rough) guide to how the votes broke down by federal electorate? In particular, I'm interested in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, where apparently the Southern portion is often able to outvote the heavily Aboriginal northern portion.