2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

I still say, Hudak, "who dat"? They picked the least well known of the leadership candidates.

Anyways, he has been getting lots of press lately actually. Unfortunately, the NDP hasn't (provincially), but it's too early to look into this too much.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, we're going to have fun that week...

[Hatman 🍁]

I plan on starting up my blog for the provincial election

First post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/05/ontario-election-2011.html

If anyone else would like to contribute, maybe turn it into a Canadian version of this site, by all means!

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos has come out with their first poll since the federal election for Ontario:

*PC 41% (-3 since March)
*Lib 34% (-1)
*NDP 19% (+3)
*Grn 5% (+1)


disappointing, I'd hoped the NDP would be higher. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the issue with the NDP during the Harris years had more to do with the damage done by the incompetence of the Rae government (which, as you all know, managed to piss off it's own natural supporters about as much as right-wingers) than a desire to rally round the largest opposition party.

I disagree. The 1995 election wasn't that bad for the NDP, after all... it got 21% of the vote, which is pretty good for the party.

I lived through the Harris years, and it's why I was a big provincial Liberal supporter right up until 2003. Harris had a polarizing effect on people, and it had to do with why the NDP didn't do well in 1999 and 2003.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now compare to federal results

1968: 21%
1972: 22%
1974: 19%
1979: 21%
1980: 22%
1984: 21%
1988: 20%
1993: 6%
1997: 11%
2000: 8%
2004: 18%
2006: 19%
2008: 18% (this was the best showing ever in terms of seats at the time... strange, eh?)
2011: 26%

So, compared to the national party, the 1995 showing wasn't too bad. Especially since the party was in single digits federally at the time.  Nowadays, the federal party is actually doing better than the provincial party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mayoral elections are officially non partisan, but that's besides the point.

ALSO, one should note that until the 1980s, the Liberals in Ontario were to the right of the Big Blue machine. Their base was in rural southwestern Ontario, an area that is pretty socially conservative and where the federal Liberals are now a non factor. It was not too long ago that right wing nut job, radio host Lowell Green ran for the provincial Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the collapse of the Liberal right wing helped to destroy the Liberals. Who is left on that front? Many of those infamous right wing Scarborough MPs either retired or were defeated.  With the election of Bob Rae as interim leader, they can say  goodbye to their right wing. I'm disappointed that Rae agreed not to run for leader, agreeing to serve only the interim. Not because I like him - far from it - but because it would further destroy the Liberals, continuing in the footsteps of Dion and Ignatieff. But I suppose tradition dictates they go French this time, so we will see either Trudeau or LeBlanc be leader. Or maybe even Garneau.

Trudeau might help the Liberals in the GTA, but that's about it. And that's their best hope.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the collapse of the Liberal right wing helped to destroy the Liberals. Who is left on that front? Many of those infamous right wing Scarborough MPs either retired or were defeated.  With the election of Bob Rae as interim leader, they can say  goodbye to their right wing. I'm disappointed that Rae agreed not to run for leader, agreeing to serve only the interim. Not because I like him - far from it - but because it would further destroy the Liberals, continuing in the footsteps of Dion and Ignatieff. But I suppose tradition dictates they go French this time, so we will see either Trudeau or LeBlanc be leader. Or maybe even Garneau.

Trudeau might help the Liberals in the GTA, but that's about it. And that's their best hope.

Trudeau would kill the Liberal Party in Quebec for another generation, too.

He would also hurt them in the West and with the West's growing population it is a lot harder to write off the West than it was 30 years ago.  He might regain the immigrant vote which would at least re-establish the GTA as a Liberal stronghold and also pick up a few more Montreal area ridings and parts of the Lower Mainland.  I would argue Dominic Leblanc though comes from the right area.  From a rural riding in New Brunswick which was their worst Atlantic province and in fact their vote in that province wasn't that far off the national average as well as it is the most Conservative province east of the Ottawa River and perhaps even outside the Prairies.  He is also young enough that he could go through multiple elections so it wouldn't be about winning, but rather gaining seats each election and maybe after three or four rounds finally winning.  He also seems quite articulate which is in contrast with the last two or even three leaders.  For all the rot in the leaders, one of the problems the Liberals had is none of their last three leaders connected with the average voter.  By contrast I think Chretien was someone who connected quite well and had a very good political antennae thus why he won three majorities.

I feel like picking a leader from the Maritimes risks the Liberals looking too much like the latter-day PCs and becoming further marginalized to just that region.

Not necessarily. But these days, it is clear to win a majority a party must win 2 of either QC, ON and the West.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, does the big news yesterday mean a landslide for whoever the incumbent party is in Manitoba?

The PCs were leading in the polls before hand, so this will probably boost the NDP a bit. However, I do remember the Tories promising to bring the Jets back in the last election. Turns out the NDP did it (well, not really, they only helped subsidize the stadium, not the team... but I guess it could be argued they allowed the economics of the city to get better allowing for a team to be financially viable)

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor West will probably be an NDP pick up. Welland will probably go NDP as well... I see it as a marginal NDP seat, not a "Peter Kormos" seat like one may have thought 10 years ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Essex is not within the NDP's grasp, unfortunately, unless they were to win the election. The Liberals could finish 3rd there, however.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Ipsos-Reid poll on Ontario.

PC - 40%
Liberals - 34%
NDP - 20%
Green - 6%

Link

Couldn't find it on Ipsos' site - not yet, anyway. mega lol @ Northern Ontario being McGuinty's strongest region, and Hudak being a close second. ok, ipsos.

I just saw that too. I wonder what their definition of "Northern Ontario" is.

Anyways, the "lamestream" media is ignoring Horwath. Today's Sun had a pull out profile of Hudak vs. McGuinty, totally ignoring her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not exactly. The Toronto Sun published an article the other week about how the PCs are taking the race for granted, and how that helps - "yikes!" - the NDP (in their words). Was probably stealth advice, though.

Not that it matters though. Who's really paying attention to the provincial race now, anyway? Might as well wait until the end of August until things start to get interesting.

True, no one's paying attention.  The provincial NDP may getting in the news in the GTA, but I havent seen much of them here.

[Hatman 🍁]

The provincial Tories must have $$$. Lots of ads during game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  Ads must have cost a fortune.

[Hatman 🍁]

The provincial Tories must have $$$. Lots of ads during game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  Ads must have cost a fortune.

Thank God I hate Don Cherry too much to live through CBC hockey coverage so that I didn't have to puke at Hudak in addition to the vulgar retard. God bless American television, saving us from the failmedia of this stupid country.

wut

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/06/23/socialism-is-not-a-dirty-word-horwath

At least Fox News is a little discreet. Everything about this article screams "conservative hackness", from the title, to the screencap.

Ugh... the comments section disgusts me.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, how would you have voted for the resolution at the NDP convention to remove the mention of socialism in the constitution's preamble? I probably would've leaned towards replacing it with social democracy, but of course I would've considered it more had I been there.

I would have, but it wouldn't have passed. I did vote for deferral however (in case you didn't know, I was there )

[Hatman 🍁]

Really!? I'm jealous! I knew you went to the Halifax convention, but I had no idea you were going to Vancouver. Hum, I wish I had the opportunity to go.

You should have! I met a couple of posters from here actually.

I really had to max out the old credit card for the trip, but I had a lot of fun. If my Vancouver friends weren't such heavy drinkers, I could have been a bit cheaper, but I had free accommodations, so I cant complain.

The best part was when the actor that played Tommy Douglas in the Prairie Giant movie spoke in character in the 50th anniversary showcase. They even dressed up the stage to make it look like it was the 1st "New Party" convention.

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

Looks like those Hudak ads have helped them... and the NDP to a degree.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos-Reid for Ontario (change from May)

Tories: 42 (+2)
Liberals: 31 (-3)
NDP: 22 (+2)
Greens: 5  (-1)

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont think so... the Tories win a majority with those numbers methinks.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Ontario PCs won the most seats but fell just short of a majority - it would be interesting to see what would happen. McGuinty as the incumbent Premier would be well within his rights to put forth a throne speech and try to get it passed with NDP support - then again he might also do what Paul Martin did on election night '06 and resign on the spot - in which case we would have a delicious repeat of what happened federally after 2006 where the Liberal official opposition propped up a Tory minority government in exchange for nothing while an emboldened and strengthened NDP got to be the "opposition in all but name".

Except, minority governments will be harder to come by in Ontario due to the lack of the Bloc. The NDP has to do really well, and the Liberals have to hold their own a bit too, which is an unlikely scenario. Either the NDP does well and the Liberals tank or the Liberals hold their own and the NDP only makes marginal gains. In other words, a perfect balance would have to occur for there to be a Tory minority.

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont think so... the Tories win a majority with those numbers methinks.

My ElectoMatic (which was proven the best in the last federal election) was designed to do what I instructed people to do with the UBC forecaster above, so I trust the numbers; the "problem" is that a single point change in the polls can mean a dozen seats change hands.

Hmm. I think I'll have to create a swing-o-metre for Ontario to make things easier...

[Hatman 🍁]

Except, minority governments will be harder to come by in Ontario due to the lack of the Bloc. The NDP has to do really well, and the Liberals have to hold their own a bit too, which is an unlikely scenario. Either the NDP does well and the Liberals tank or the Liberals hold their own and the NDP only makes marginal gains. In other words, a perfect balance would have to occur for there to be a Tory minority.

I don't think it would take that much of a "freak result". What if the gap narrowed to just a 5 or 6 point Tory lead (very possible) and we ended up with something like PC - 39%, Libs - 34%, NDP - 22% (or for that matter let's say the NDP gets a more 'low end" 20% and the Tories get 40 and the Liberals 35) - if that happened, we would probably be looking at something like the seat split in Ontario federally in 2008 (C - 52, Libs 38, NDP 17). In 1985 we had a 51-49-25 seat split. I think its extremely likely that the ONDP gets in the high-teens seat-wise - and then all it takes for a minority government is for the Tories to be kept to a low to mid single digit lead over the Liberals.

1985 was a rare event indeed. Of course, it could happen again this time, but it work require the perfect storm.