Over the last century, the above states have differed in carriage or denial to presidents elected to [a minimum of] two terms: Woodrow Wilson [1912, 1916], Franklin Roosevelt [1932, 1936, 1940, 1944], Dwight Eisenhower [1952, 1956], Richard Nixon [1968, 1972], Ronald Reagan [1980, 1984], Bill Clinton [1992, 1996], and George W. Bush [2000, 2004].
In 1912 both New Mexico (No. 47 admitted into the union) and Arizona (No. 48) had their first presidential election. At that point the contiguous 48 states were established and Election 1960 saw Alaska (No. 49) and Hawaii (No. 50) participate for the first time. District of Columbia joined in with Election 1964.
Bellwether states have been noted on this site: Ohio [since 1896, except 1944 and 1960]; Missouri [since 1904, minus 1956 and 2008], Nevada and N.M. [since 1912, except 1976 for both and, in 2000, with the latter]; and Florida [since 1928, with exception of 1960 and 1992]. But I wanted to take into account not just those but all other states because some have a pretty damn good track record of backing the winner or at least giving a two-termer carriage
once.
The above maps color scheme represents a chilly (
blue) and a warm (
red) reception. (Louisiana gets a lighter-red shade because the Republicans saw three individuals elected during the 1920s. And La. never voted for Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover. But all other two-termers carried the state.) And the letters are initials see below Key for previous commanders in chief who had never carried a given state.
Part of this can spark the following questions: If it turns out President Obama wins a second term with Election 2012, which of those red-colored states not carried in his first election might he win in his second? (Given a strong enough shift.)
If Obama gets re-elected with an additional margin shift (in 2008 it was 7.26%), will it be even more interesting to see, say, Tennessee (which had voted with the winner in all these elections but three) deny carriage? (Or, even more compelling, West Virginia which likely wouldve been in Hillary Clintons column had she been the partys 08 nominee.)
KeyW | Wilson, Woodrow
F | Roosevelt, Franklin
E | Eisenhower, Dwight
N | Nixon, Richard
R | Reagan, Ronald
C | Clinton, Bill
B | Bush, George W.
