What states switch hands in 2006?

[Smash255]

New York will change

[they don't love you like i love you]

There will be no serious candidate against Jeffords. I can guarantee that. The Democrats don't run anyone serious against Bernie. Jeffords is the exact opposite of a DINO: he's a Democrat In All But Name. There is no reason for the Democrats to not simply stick with Jeffords.

[Erc]

[Smash255]

Post Reserved.

What do you think the chances of New York staying in GOP hands??  With & without Pataki running.  Its pretty much a safe bet for Spitzer iMO.  He is VERY popular state wide (approval in the 60's disapproval around 20), Pataki's popularity is floundering (approval has bee in th4e 40's for awhile now).  Pataki will easily lose to Spitzer.  More than likley guliani is not going to run, Powell said he won't run.  After those 3 what other Republicans have a chance of winning a statewide office, and those 3 are 2 that most likley won't run and one guy who is going to get crushed if he runs again for gov or decides to go run against Hillary.

[A18]

Err... I think you misunderstood his post, heh.

[Erc]

I've never had that great of an opinion of Pataki's political prospects--I'm surprised he's still in office, personally.  You never know with Pataki...he just might pull it off...but against Spitzer, I doubt it.

So I think the only chance for the Republicans here is with Guiliani...if he isn't running for the Senate seat.

Although I do think there is a chance that Pataki might beat Hillary for the Senate seat (not a large one, but a chance nonetheless...and one that would put Pataki in a good position to run for President further down the line (2012, if the Democrats win)).  So potentially, running Rudy for Guvnor and Pataki for Senate might work.  Or it could backfire and fail miserably.

[Erc]

Is there any hope that in the event the Dems decide to run somebody against Jeffords that the vote splits so much that a Republican squeaks into the spot?

[Erc]

And now for a third consecutive post:

In regards Vorlon's rankings:

I agree on most of them...

Hillary can be unseated by Rudy easily, by Pataki maybe.

Is there any shot at taking Corzine's seat (considering he's running for Governor)?

Is Herb Kohl really that safe?  (Even if he doesn't retire)

I've heard a lot of talk from the Dems about Bill Frist's seat (as he is definitely retiring, as promised, after his second term)--no chance of Harold Ford or somebody else pulling it off?

[A18]

Jim Douglas (R-VT) was swept back into office with 59% of the vote. He'd make an excellent Senate candidate against Jeffords, especially if the Dems field a candidate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Frist is retiring
Warner could beat Allen
Jeffords will easily win if he runs, in any case Vermont isn't electing a Republican Senator.
Dorgan isn't really vulnerable, either.

[A18]

If Warner runs against Allen, he is a definite underdog.

Jeffords WAS a REPUBLICAN!

[they don't love you like i love you]

If Warner runs against Allen, he is a definite underdog.

Jeffords WAS a REPUBLICAN!

Jeffords was also the biggest RINO in the Senate and probably the last progressive Republican. He voted against most of Reagan's agenda in the 80's. Plus he was initially elected back when Vermont was a more Republican friendly state and kept surviving by incumbancy.

Douglas didn't have a serious opponent last year and we all know governor's races are the ones people are least partisan in. Besides, why would he give up a safe governorship for a long shot Senate race?

The Democrats will not put up a serious candidate against Jeffords. They never do against Sanders, and why would they against either? Jeffords votes exactly like a Democrat anyway.

[Moooooo]

If Warner runs against Allen, he is a definite underdog.

I agree.  Warners approval ratings seem pretty good, but from what I hear Allen is pretty popular in that state.  Unless something big breaks durring the campaign I cant see Allen getting less than 52-53% of the vote.  But who knows?  Mark Warner came pretty close to unseating the other Warner in that state in 1996.

SEN. WARNER (R) 53%   1,221,508   
WARNER (D)         47%   1,098,440

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Warner runs against Allen, he is a definite underdog.

I agree.  Warners approval ratings seem pretty good, but from what I hear Allen is pretty popular in that state.  Unless something big breaks durring the campaign I cant see Allen getting less than 52-53% of the vote.  But who knows?  Mark Warner came pretty close to unseating the other Warner in that state in 1996.

SEN. WARNER (R) 53%   1,221,508   
WARNER (D)         47%   1,098,440

Allen is pretty right-wing. I think Senator Warner isn't so right-wing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm a little surprised Vorlon is ranking Ensign as vulnerable.  I'm not really sure who the Dems have to run against him.  Oscar Goodman?  But mayors NEVER win Senate elections.

I also think Jeffords is pretty safe.
Bingaman would be safe, but I hear he is likely to retire.

[Smash255]

I've never had that great of an opinion of Pataki's political prospects--I'm surprised he's still in office, personally.  You never know with Pataki...he just might pull it off...but against Spitzer, I doubt it.

So I think the only chance for the Republicans here is with Guiliani...if he isn't running for the Senate seat.

Although I do think there is a chance that Pataki might beat Hillary for the Senate seat (not a large one, but a chance nonetheless...and one that would put Pataki in a good position to run for President further down the line (2012, if the Democrats win)).  So potentially, running Rudy for Guvnor and Pataki for Senate might work.  Or it could backfire and fail miserably.

Actually if you look at the polls Pataki's chances against Hillary is worse than his chances against Spitzer.  Against Spitzer he trailed by somewhere between 12-16 points, against Hillary fot the Senate seat it was more than 20 points he trailed.  Both Spitzer & Hillary (and Schumer also) have approval ratings in the 60's, Pataki's approval is in the 40's.

Pataki would never get anywhere in the primaries for President, same reason as Rudy too socially liberal for the National GOP

[Smash255]

And now for a third consecutive post:

In regards Vorlon's rankings:

I agree on most of them...

Hillary can be unseated by Rudy easily, by Pataki maybe.

Is there any shot at taking Corzine's seat (considering he's running for Governor)?

Is Herb Kohl really that safe?  (Even if he doesn't retire)

I've heard a lot of talk from the Dems about Bill Frist's seat (as he is definitely retiring, as promised, after his second term)--no chance of Harold Ford or somebody else pulling it off?

Your comments that say Hillary would get beat easily by giuliani and maybe by Pataki.   umm have you seen the polls......

Giuliani is leading Hillary, but barley 45-43

hillary is DEMOLISHING Pataki 58-36

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And now for a third consecutive post:

In regards Vorlon's rankings:

I agree on most of them...

Hillary can be unseated by Rudy easily, by Pataki maybe.

Is there any shot at taking Corzine's seat (considering he's running for Governor)?

Is Herb Kohl really that safe?  (Even if he doesn't retire)

I've heard a lot of talk from the Dems about Bill Frist's seat (as he is definitely retiring, as promised, after his second term)--no chance of Harold Ford or somebody else pulling it off?

Your comments that say Hillary would get beat easily by giuliani and maybe by Pataki.   umm have you seen the polls......

Giuliani is leading Hillary, but barley 45-43

hillary is DEMOLISHING Pataki 58-36

I think if Guilani runs against Spitzer or Hillary, it'll get a lot of media attention, and be close, but he'll lose.  He's about the only Republican who has a chance in a statewide NY election.

[Smash255]

And now for a third consecutive post:

In regards Vorlon's rankings:

I agree on most of them...

Hillary can be unseated by Rudy easily, by Pataki maybe.

Is there any shot at taking Corzine's seat (considering he's running for Governor)?

Is Herb Kohl really that safe?  (Even if he doesn't retire)

I've heard a lot of talk from the Dems about Bill Frist's seat (as he is definitely retiring, as promised, after his second term)--no chance of Harold Ford or somebody else pulling it off?

Your comments that say Hillary would get beat easily by giuliani and maybe by Pataki.   umm have you seen the polls......

Giuliani is leading Hillary, but barley 45-43

hillary is DEMOLISHING Pataki 58-36

I think if Guilani runs against Spitzer or Hillary, it'll get a lot of media attention, and be close, but he'll lose.  He's about the only Republican who has a chance in a statewide NY election.

I think Giuliani may very well lose if he does run.  He has by far the best chance of winning of anything out of the GOP in the state (Powell would have a good shot, but he already ruled out running for anything), but one thing that could really backfire on Rudy is his close association with Bush since the campaign in a state where Bush's approval is in the 30's.   if he does run for Govenor or Senate it will be a close race & he has a decent chance of winning, but the love-affair he has with Bush could cost him

[they don't love you like i love you]

Kohl got over 60% last time. He's safe.

[nclib]

Map of Governor's Races

Dark Red--Dem. incumbent
Light Red--Open (Dem)
Light Blue--Open (Rep)
Dark Blue--Rep. incumbent
Gray--no race

[nini2287]

Arizona should be red not blue.

[YRABNNRM]

California should also be blue I believe...

[nclib]

Thanks. I fixed it.