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April 29, 2016, 06:40:06 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Apocrypha)
| | |-+  What leads to this being the 2016 Battleground Map?
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Author Topic: What leads to this being the 2016 Battleground Map?  (Read 256 times)
Southern Gothic
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« on: April 18, 2016, 08:53:36 am »
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DEM: 237 EVs
GOP: 234 EVs
Tossup: 67 EVs
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Harsh regressive policies that pointlessly target vulnerable groups? No way, not me! BTW have I told you my plan to 'reform entitlements'?
Hillary '16

Economics: -4.77
Social: -0.57
Foreign Policy: As Dovish as they come.
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2016, 01:56:18 pm »
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A Southern Democrat, presumably John W. Davis in his 2nd term, is in office during the 1929 Crash.  Then a New England Republican wins two landslides with a Western running mate and passes:

1. Some program that is amazingly effective at ending the Dust Bowl and eliminating farm poverty
2. Civil Rights Act of 1937 (with enough SCOTUS appointees to fully enforce it by 1940)
3. Anti-labor legislation

Republicans are as dominant as Democrats were during the Depression.  The Western VP is elected in 1940 and 1944 and wins WWII.  Republicans are largely credited for the good times of 1946-60 and become social liberals on essentially all issues by the 1960's, but organized labor deeply resents them.  Conservative Southern Democrats remain a major force in the party to the present day and Republicans dominate the black vote, even though they are easily outvoted in Deep South states.  Without the New Deal expansion of the bureaucracy, the D.C. suburbs never expand far into MD and VA, leaving those states still dominated by the rural culturally conservative block.  For some reason, mass migration to Florida also never happens, but Texas and California do grow as fast as in our world.
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Northeast Governor Kingpoleon
Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2016, 10:10:08 pm »
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Gore wins in 2000. Giuliani/McCain win in 2004, and then no recession occurs thanks to Treasury Secretary John Kasich helping alongside Federal Reserve Chairman Mitch Daniels. Giuliani defeats Dean by over five points in 2008. In 2012, Senator James Hood of Mississippi and Governor Ben Chandler of Kentucky defeat McCain/Kasich narrowly.

Gov. Linda McMahon/Sen. Brian Sandoval run against the incumbents with appeal to Hispanics, while the Democrats have an edge in African-Americans. Whites in the Rust Belt, NJ, and DE form the main swing vote. The educated white voters with a bachelor's degree or more are voting Republican by 5-10 points, while those with a High school degree or GED or less are voting Democratic by about 3-5. Young whites and those with one to three years of college are the swing of the swing white voters.
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"You are the people who pay the taxes and obey the law. You are the people who make America what it is! It is from your ranks I come, and on your side I stand!" - Gerald Ford

Economic: 1.38
Social: -2.36
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