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Author Topic: The 2020 Republican Primary: #NeverTrump will #NeverDie  (Read 689 times)
nevertrumperCA
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« on: February 08, 2017, 11:32:44 pm »
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It's the middle of President Donald Trump's first term, and the President's election promise to "Make America Great Again" sounds more like a cheap advertising slogan than a rallying cry for the first businessman to be elected President. The fallout from the President's executive order limiting Muslim immigration is still being felt. The case regarding the order's constitutionality made its way to the Supreme Court in June 2017, where a 6-3 majority, led by Chief Justice Roberts, struck down the order as "unconstitutional and a clear violation of separation of powers." The President's supporters are outraged, especially focusing their ire at Roberts. Senator Ted Cruz begins an effort to impeach the Chief Justice, but fizzles out after a couple months. Republicans in Congress can't agree on a legislative solution to limit Middle East immigration, and the effort collapses with President Trump heavily criticizing Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker Paul Ryan for "abandoning the American people and making our country less safe," further straining his already dismal relations with Republicans in Congress.

On the health care front, the GOP's efforts to repeal Obamacare start out promising enough with the "Health Care Freedom and Patient Choice Act" passing the House on a mostly party line vote of 231-204, with several Republican representatives from swing districts voting no. However, the bill is held up in the Senate as Democrats form a unified front against the act and Senators Alexander, Collins, Murkowski, and Portman withhold their support because "this bill as written is unworkable and does not do enough to ensure patient coverage and affordable prices." Once again, conservatives are outraged that Obamacare repeal is dying due to the efforts of a few GOP senators. Senator Lee declares in support of the bill on the Senate floor, "It is a shameful moment when the party that the American people elected to repeal the disaster of Obamacare is now preventing repeal from taking place. I am embarrassed of my party tonight." Democrats, meanwhile, maintain a united front and basically let the Republicans take the heat from their own party.

Foreign policy wise, the conflict against ISIS remains in a stalemate. President Trump's first foreign visit is to Moscow in March 2017 to meet with President Vladimir Putin, whom he hails as "a great leader, a leader who has done incredible things to make his country great," adding, "things with Russia will be a lot different from now on, believe me." Unfortunately for the President, his words come back to haunt him when the Russian army crosses the border into Kazakhstan in August 2017. Russian state news declares, "There are widespread reports of anti-government rebels being trained and housed in Kazakhstan. Our military has stepped in to ensure that no threats come across the border to threaten our homeland." The UN General Assembly condemns the invasion but Russia and China veto an identical Security Council resolution. The occupation of northern Kazakhstan continues into 2018 amid reports of human rights abuses and civilian deaths, while President Trump is either silent or mildly supportive of Putin's actions. Polls show a large majority of Americans oppose both Putin's action and the President's reaction to it.

Finally, on the economic side, the US economy continues to exhibit an uneven recovery. What seems to be a promising year of economic growth in 2017 experiences a turnaround after the Kazakhstan invasion and the resulting spike in oil prices. The summer of 2018 soon becomes known as the "Summer of Pain" as gas prices shoot up to $5.00/gallon in most places, and even higher in urban areas. Unemployment steadily creeps up and reaches 6.9% in October 2017 amid fears of a recession on the horizon.

All of this combines to make the upcoming midterm elections a bad season for the governing party.

Generic Ballot: RCP Average (10/31/18)

Democrats 54%
Republicans 40%
Undecided 6%

On Election Day, November 6, 2018, the President's approval rating stands at a dismal 35%, the worst approval rating for a first-term President since Bill Clinton in 1994, while Congress has a 5% approval rating, a record low. Americans are clearly angry as they head to the polls on November 6th...
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 11:34:35 pm by dcush1992 »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2017, 11:34:41 pm »
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Nice!
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One pissed off likely voter
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« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2017, 06:19:44 pm »
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I can see a lot of this happening except for Kazahstan Putin would focus his attention west toward Belarus or Lithuania
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#woke O'Malley 2020
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2017, 09:05:55 pm »
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Putin has no need to access Kazakhstan. They're already economically aligned with Russia--same with the rest of Central Asia. Plus, can you imagine securing that territory? This ain't 1865.
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2017, 09:09:10 pm »
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Looking good so far!
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« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2017, 05:20:38 am »
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I appreciate all the feedback, I will be posting election night results soon.

As far as Kazakhstan, it may not be #1 in strategic importance for Putin but doesn't he seem like the type to just flex Russian military muscle for no other good reason than that?
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« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2017, 05:34:59 am »
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Great beginning! Curious to see how this goes. And yeah, Putin is cold-minded and calculating so I'd say he wouldn't mind Kazakhstan and concentrate on the western front, but it's your TL And it's still very interesting.
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nevertrumperCA
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2017, 05:31:59 pm »
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ELECTION NIGHT 2018: FINAL RESULTS!
As expected, the midterm elections were not kind to the GOP. While Democrats did not retake the House as many pundits had speculated, they did reduce the Republicans' 47-seat majority in the chamber to just 3 seats, leaving the final totals at 219 seats for the GOP and 216 for the Democrats. No Democratic seats changed hands, while Democrats picked up 23 GOP seats. In probably the most stunning result of the night, widely seen as emblematic of voter anger toward Republicans, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was defeated in his heavily Republican district by Karen Goh, Mayor of Bakersfield, who ran as an independent and defeated McCarthy 52-48%.



Dem Hold, Dem Pickup, GOP Hold, Ind Hold

On the Senate side, the Democrats had few realistic opportunities for pickups by virtue of their good performance in the 2012 elections. However, the strong national trend for the Democrats allowed them to knock off three Republican incumbents in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee, which allows them to retake the Senate majority, holding 51 seats (including their partnerships with Angus King and Bernie Sanders) to the Republicans’ 49 seats.

Here are a few of the notable races below:

AL: Appointed Sen. Luther Strange loses a closely fought primary battle with Rep. Mo Brooks, who goes on to easily win the general election.

AZ: Sen. Jeff Flake is defeated in the Republican primary by Kelli Ward, who goes on to lose the seat to former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, 53-44%

CA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein announces her retirement, and the general election becomes a contest between Democrats Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles, and Treasurer John Chiang, who was previously running for Governor the same year. The race remains close throughout the year, but Chiang prevails in the end 52-48%.

IN: Republicans heavily target freshman Sen. Joe Donnelly in what many believed was their best pickup opportunity of the 2018 cycle. The strong anti-GOP sentiment, however, allows Donnelly to win a narrow victory over State House Speaker Brian Bosma.

ME: No Democrat files to run in this race, setting up a match between independent Sen. Angus King and Republican Gov. Paul LePage. LePage’s campaign is beset by controversial statements, but he only narrowly loses to King by five points.

MO: Sen. Claire McCaskill continues her streak of winning competitive elections in Missouri, defeating Rep. Ann Wagner 53-47%.

NV: Sen. Dean Heller faced an uphill fight throughout 2018 against Rep. Dina Titus, who prevails against the incumbent 55-45%.

ND: Republicans also made Sen. Heidi Heitkamp’s seat a prime target after narrowly losing to her in 2012. The GOP puts up a strong challenge from Gov. Jack Dalrymple, but in the end Heitkamp manages to hang on by another narrow margin of 51-49%.

OH: This race is a rematch of 2012 between Sen. Sherrod Brown and Treasurer Josh Mandel, and this year results in an even bigger victory for Brown, who wins 58-42%.

TN: Sen. Bob Corker was expecting to coast easily to re-election, but the national Democratic trend and Corker’s strong affiliation with President Trump’s foreign policy strengthens Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper’s bid for the seat. Cooper ends up defeating Corker by three points to become Tennessee’s first Democratic Senator in more than two decades.

VA: Despite the GOP’s initial musings that they would made the seat of former VP candidate Sen. Tim Kaine competitive, many prominent GOP candidates end up passing on the race and Kaine’s opponent ends up being former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who loses to Kaine 56-44%.

Gubernatorial results and reactions coming next…
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2017, 06:17:21 am »
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Looking good so far!
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« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2017, 11:58:46 am »
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I seriously fail to see how the dems could not win the house in a year they are winning a senate seat in TN
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Captain Chaos
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2017, 05:09:23 pm »
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I seriously fail to see how the dems could not win the house in a year they are winning a senate seat in TN

Gerrymandering.

How did the governors races go?
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