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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #75 on: August 22, 2011, 10:46:11 pm »

TIME – An early glance at the 1980 Presidential Election
January 23rd, 1979

Last November, supporters sent a message to Gerald Ford over their displeasure with the stagnant economy. The mid-term elections saw Democrats net seven Senate seats and a dozen house seats, extending their supermajorities in both houses and further halting the Republican agenda. However, a post-election poll conducted in December saw the President’s approval ratings increase to a modest 48%, up from 44% in October. Still, Democrats seem favored to take the White House in 1980, by a narrow margin.

Earlier this week California Governor Ronald Reagan announced he was not going to seek the Presidency in 1980. “We fought the good fight in 1976, and although we didn’t win, at the time I felt we made a statement and got our point across. I’m not so sure about that in retrospect, though. Without any tax cuts, spending cuts, and a litany of blunders, I don’t think that conservative message was made clear. Maybe the idea of a truly conservative party is just a pipedream. My age forbids me from mounting yet another political campaign, and I shall be retiring from elected office.” The speech struck many as odd considering Reagan’s usual sunny optimism and cheery, leader-like demeanor. He came off as reticent and disillusioned.

Reagan’s announcement leaves Vice President Baker as the only official candidate, and an obvious favorite. Yet he has been sluggish to establish a campaign infrastructure, and former Texas Governor John Connally has shaken hands and made media appearances at every pass. He has yet to declare, but trails by only four points in a Republican field with high a high amount of undecided voters.

On the Democratic side, both Morris Udall and Henry “Scoop” Jackson have declared. Morris Udall seems to be an early favorite for the establishment, many liberals, and even mainstream Democrats who see shades of 1976 in Jackson. Udall has blasted the Republican Party frequently and is seen as a key figure in having defeated Kemp-Roth. Senator Jefferson Dent, an eccentric and conspicuous figure on the Senate floor, has declined to run, instead endorsing Morris Udall. Senator Scott Westman cancelled his exploratory committee upon Udall’s entrance, though many suspect he was running for Vice President.

December, 1978 - Presidential Approval Ratings

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« Reply #76 on: August 23, 2011, 11:13:45 am »
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Cool, I got mention Grin
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« Reply #77 on: August 23, 2011, 11:18:21 am »
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Cry poor Ronnie, poor Republican Party...

Anyway, I'm wondering what the field will comprise come 1980 for the Republicans. There's Vice-President Howard Baker, maybe from the Right enter Crane and Connally, from the Left are Weicker and Anderson, and I'm wondering about the possibility of a more Libertarian oriented candidate...
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #78 on: August 23, 2011, 11:34:58 am »

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS

Key:

Safe Republican: >10%

Slight Republican: 5-9%

Tossup: 4% difference

Slight Democratic: 5-9%

Safe Democratic: >10%

Baker vs Udall



Baker vs Jackson



Connally vs Udall



Connally vs Jackson

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« Reply #79 on: August 23, 2011, 08:18:43 pm »
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Hehehe, Vice President Scott Westman Grin

That would be interesting.  He would be like the anti-Spiro Agnew: y'know "f*** the annoying Northeastern GOP WASP establishment AND the Dixiecrats!!!!"

That's like the ultimate win-win for western libertarians and rust belt populists Wink
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« Reply #80 on: August 23, 2011, 08:31:38 pm »
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Hehehe, Vice President Scott Westman Grin

That would be interesting.  He would be like the anti-Spiro Agnew: y'know "f*** the annoying Northeastern GOP WASP establishment AND the Dixiecrats!!!!"

That's like the ultimate win-win for western libertarians and rust belt populists Wink

I find it hard for rust belt populists like Mattingly to vote for an abhorrent libertine radical such as Scott Westman.
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« Reply #81 on: August 23, 2011, 08:38:14 pm »
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Hehehe, Vice President Scott Westman Grin

That would be interesting.  He would be like the anti-Spiro Agnew: y'know "f*** the annoying Northeastern GOP WASP establishment AND the Dixiecrats!!!!"

That's like the ultimate win-win for western libertarians and rust belt populists Wink

I find it hard for rust belt populists like Mattingly to vote for an abhorrent libertine radical such as Scott Westman.

Well, it would be the ultimate win-win until they found out about that!
Then, yeah.....he'd probably piss off everybody except westerners and maybe people from New Hampshire.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #82 on: August 23, 2011, 09:16:01 pm »

Revisited: 1979

Following his scare in his ancestral home, Thad was left with no choice but to return to Hank Stevenson. Hank welcomed his sojourn with open arms, and urged him to take his time. Within weeks, Thad managed to sell the residence in Eastport, hearing no complaints of it since. By April of ’79, nepotism had shuttled Thad into a managerial slot, “earning” a considerably higher wage than he had before, and he was able to purchase a small house in South Portland, not too far from the brewery. Still, he was with Hank frequently, and on some nights it was as if he’d never moved out.

On one night, Hank had presented Thad with the most pivotal piece of paper he would receive in his life: an invitation to the 1980 Republican National Convention in Los Angeles, California. The two had been drinking, and while Thad was ecstatic, Hank seemed noticeably less so. “My friend, what troubles you so? We will be attending the Convention, of all places,” said Thad. “Yeah, the coronation of a dang loser. What in the hell’s the point of seeing which snowball gets thrown into hell? Between Reagan’s departure, your Senate loss, and Flaker, I don’t have much to hope for. Democrats will take over everything and this will look like the Soviet Union before you know it,” replied Hank.

”I think you are wrong,” said Thad, with a clever smirk, despite his obvious inebriation. “Such things are cyclical. I remember the great wave of ’64, yet the election turned out to be the last of its kind for a long time. If you feel you can make a difference, run. Otherwise, sit back and watch.” Hank merely nodded and stared down into his drink, before looking to Thad with redoubled optimism. “All right, gosh darn it, I’ll run for State Rep next year.”

Little did Thad know how consequential the next few years would be.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2012, 09:55:16 am by Dallasfan65 »Logged

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« Reply #83 on: August 24, 2011, 04:08:52 pm »
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Taking it slower then...Going to the State House, gonna eat alot of peaches...Wink
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #84 on: August 24, 2011, 07:12:51 pm »

Taking it slower then...Going to the State House, gonna eat alot of peaches...Wink

Hank is running for State House. Not Thad. Smiley

Anyone have any polling match-up requests?
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« Reply #85 on: August 26, 2011, 09:59:45 pm »

TIME – John Connally declares for President of the United States!
January 28th, 1979

Two days ago in a brisk, yet sunny morning in Houston, Texas, John Connally announced in front of a large conference that he would be declaring for President of the United States. The former Secretary explained his delay as caused by waiting to see if former Governor Reagan would declare, and a desire “not to split the conservative movement.” Many pundits and spin masters have chalked it up to his lack of confidence that he could beat the former actor, but the Secretary made no mention of that.

Declared:
Vice President Howard Baker (R-TN)
Former Secretary (and Governor) John Connally (R-TX)

Possible:
Former Congressman George H. Bush (R-TX)
Senator John Chafee (R-RI)
Congressman John B. Anderson (R-IL)
Congressman Phil Crane (R-IL)
Senator Lawrence I. Coventry (R-VT)
Senator Mark Hatfield (R-OR)

Declined:
Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)

Polling:


Howard Baker: 31%
John Connally: 27%
George Bush: 8%
Others: 10%
Undecided: 24%
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« Reply #86 on: August 26, 2011, 10:30:54 pm »
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How are fiscal conservatives reacting to Connallys rather questionable record as Treasury Secretary? Also, will Jerry Brown try to bring back the era of limits in 1980?
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« Reply #87 on: August 26, 2011, 10:34:53 pm »

How are fiscal conservatives reacting to Connallys rather questionable record as Treasury Secretary? Also, will Jerry Brown try to bring back the era of limits in 1980?

So far they haven't really reacted yet - only the diehard news junkies. Lots of undecideds as the race has yet to really take form, so you shall see. Smiley

As for Jerry, I'll be doing the Democrats tomorrow.
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« Reply #88 on: August 27, 2011, 01:36:30 am »

In the mean time, upon request:

Hatfield vs Jackson

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« Reply #89 on: August 31, 2011, 12:25:04 pm »

TIME – Tight race in the Democratic Primary
February 5th, 1979

Congressman Morris Udall of Arizona is still narrowly favored to win the Democratic Primary, as indicated by early polling. However, the entrance of former Senator Fred Harris, a ‘retread’ from 1976, has reduced his already meager lead. Early polling is akin to judging a baseball game in the first inning, but it’s easy to see how a ‘splinter’ amongst the left wing of the Democratic Party will hurt Udall’s prospects. Jackson’s selling point is his superior polling as opposed to Congressman Udall, who may be eerily reminiscent of Senator George McGovern.

Declared:
Representative Morris Udall (D-AZ)
Senator “Scoop” Jackson (D-WA)
Former Senator Fred Harris (D-OK)

Possible:
Governor George Wallace (D-AL)
Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA)
Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN)
Senator Bruce King (D-NM)
Governor Ella T. Grasso (D-CT)

Declined:
Senator Jefferson Dent (D-AL)
Senator Scott Westman (D-MT)
Governor James E. Carter (D-GA)
Former Governor Thomas Salmon (D-VT)

Polling:

Morris Udall: 34%
Scoop Jackson: 29%
Fred Harris: 18%
George Wallace: 6%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 8%
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #90 on: September 04, 2011, 09:18:24 pm »

Alabama:
Howell Heflin (D)
Jefferson Dent (D)


Alaska:
Ted Stevens (R)
Mike Gravel (D)

Arizona:
Barry Goldwater (R)
Dennis DeConcini (D)

Arkansas:
David Pryor (D)
Dale Bumpers (D)


California:
Alan Cranston (D)
S. I. Hayakawa (R)

Colorado:
Gary Hart (D)
Bill Armstrong (R)

Connecticut:
Lowell Weicker (R)
Abraham Ribicoff (D)

Delaware:
Joe Biden (D)
William Roth (R)

Florida:
Lawton Chiles (D)
Richard Stone (D)


Georgia:
Sam Nunn (D)
Herman Talmadge (D)


Hawaii:
Daniel Inouye (D)
Spark Matsunaga (D)


Idaho:
James McClure (R)
Frank Church (D)

Illinois:
Alex Seith (D)
Adlai Stevenson III (D)


Indiana:
Birch Bayh (D)
Richard Lugar (R)

Iowa:
John Culver (D)
Dick Clark (D)


Kansas:
Bob Dole (R)
Joan Finney (D)

Kentucky:
Walter Huddleston (D)
Wendell Ford (D)


Louisiana:
Bennett Johnston Jr. (D)
Russell B. Long (D)


Maine:
William Hathaway (D)
Edmund Muskie (D)


Maryland:
Paul Sarbanes (D)
Charles Mathias (R)

Massachusetts:
Ted Kennedy (D)
Paul Tsongas (D)


Michigan:
Donald Riegle (D)
Carl Levin (D)


Minnesota:
Walter Mondale (D)
David Durenburger (R)

Mississippi:
John Stennis (D)
Patton Wyde (D)


Missouri:
Thomas Eagleton (D)
John Danforth (R)

Montana:
Scott Westman (D)
Max Baucus (D)


Nebraska:
James Exon (D)
Edward Zorinsky (D)

Nevada:
Paul Laxalt (R)
Howard Cannon (D)

New Hampshire:
Thomas McIntyre (D)
John A. Durkin (D)


New Jersey:
Harrison Williams (D)
Clifford Case (R)

New Mexico:
Bruce King (D)
Harrison Schmidt (R)

New York:
Jacob Javits (R)
Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D)

North Carolina:
Robert Burren Morgan (D)
John Ingram (D)


North Dakota:
Quentin Burdick (D)
Milton Young (R)

Ohio:
John Glenn (D)
Howard Metzenbaum (D)


Oklahoma:
David Boren (D)
Henry Bellmon (R)

Oregon:
Mark Hatfield (R)
Bob Packwood (R)


Pennsylvania:
John Heinz (R)
Richard Schweicker (R)


Rhode Island:
Claiborne Pell (D)
John Chafee (R)

South Carolina:
Strom Thurmond (R)
Ernest Hollings (D)

South Dakota:
George McGovern (D)
Larry Pressler (R)

Tennessee:
Marilyn Lloyd (D)
Jim Sasser (D)


Texas:
Bob Krueger (D)
Lloyd Bentsen (D)


Utah:
Jake Garn (R)
Orrin Hatch (R)


Vermont:
Lawrence I. Coventry (R)
Patrick Leahy (D)

Virginia:
Andrew Miller (D)
Harry Byrd (I/D)


Washington:
Warren G. Magnuson (D)
Henry M. Jackson (D)


West Virginia:
Jennings Randolph (D)
Robert Byrd (D)


Wisconsin:
William Proxmire (D)
Gaylord Nelson (D)

Wyoming:
Malcolm Wallop (R)
Alan Simpson (R)
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« Reply #91 on: September 04, 2011, 09:37:28 pm »

Senate Composition:

D: 69 R: 31

President Pro Tempore: Warren Magnuson (D-WA)
Majority Leader: Robert Byrd (D-WV)
Majority Whip: Jefferson Dent (D-AL)

Minority Leader: Ted Stevens (R-AK)
Minority Whip: Lawrence I. Coventry (R-VT)

House Composition:

D: 304 R: 131

Speaker of the House: Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
Majority Leader: Jim Wright (D-TX)
Majority Whip: John Brademas (D-IN)

Minority Leader: Bob Michel (R-IL)
Minority Whip: Ericson L. Snell (R-NY)
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« Reply #92 on: September 04, 2011, 10:30:38 pm »
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How ate the incumbents looking for re-election? Goldwater? Gravel? Church? McGovern? Laxalt?
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« Reply #93 on: September 04, 2011, 10:55:34 pm »

How ate the incumbents looking for re-election? Goldwater? Gravel? Church? McGovern? Laxalt?

I'm trying to find the video, but there was one where Goldwater talked of having a debilitating injury OTL that had prevented him for campaigning for quite some time. Of course, in this timeline, with a much worse climate for Republicans, Goldwater will be retiring.

The normally popular Laxalt is looking shaky for re-election and is currently trying to mend relations with At-Large Representative Areus Hok'ee, who holds a lot of sway and may not support him. However, he is only considered to be in "real trouble" if Governor Callaghan runs (elected four years later than in our timeline.)

McGovern has no prominent challengers at this time and many speculate he will rise or fall with the national party in 1980.

Gravel's only concerns are winning his own primary, and Church is a lock.
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« Reply #94 on: September 07, 2011, 11:19:12 pm »

TIME – Handicapping the Primary Thus Far
September 21st, 1979

Initially, Vice President Howard Baker was seen as the presumptive nominee and the safest bet to take on the Democrats in November. He continuously enjoyed a narrow lead in early polling. Since the race started, little has looked up for him, however. Baker has run a lackadaisical campaign, responding, “It is bad form to campaign so early while serving the nation as Vice President. Not all of us have the luxury Mr. Connally does.”

This righteous stance has done little to help, and Connally has been frequently on the campaign trail, receiving the highly-prized endorsement of Governor Ronald Reagan, who nearly clipped the incumbent President in the 1976 Republican primary, and even several members of the GOP establishment have lost confidence and hedged their bet with Connally as the safer nominee to lock-up the South, worth 118 Electoral Votes. Connally leads the Vice President in national polling by an average of 8 points.

On the Democratic side, Senator Scoop Jackson seems to have gained the upper hand and narrowly leads national polling. Morris Udall, a die-hard liberal and initial favorite has been slipping, his candidacy faltering in response to allegations of “unelectability” (compounded with weak general-election polling.) He also has a splinter candidate, former Senator Fred Harris, who has begun to gain traction.

Liberals have been looking for a new candidate to turn-to, but with Ted Kennedy’s unwillingness to run against his close friend, Scoop Jackson, and Frank Church choosing to run for re-election, they are left with little choice. Scoop has continued to tack on his civil rights record and his reliability on social spending, and may become a “consensus” candidate, much to the chagrin of the New Left. Their last hope, a “Hail Mary”; Senator Jefferson Dent, already declined, though last week he dropped a subtle hint that he was reconsidering.

Polling:

Connally: 41%
Baker: 36%
Chafee: 7%
Undecided: 16%

Jackson: 38%
Udall: 27%
Harris: 22%
Undecided: 13%


Blue: Baker
Green: Connally
Yellow: Chafee


Red: Jackson
Yellow: Udall
Green: Harris



September, 1979 - Presidential Approval Ratings


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« Reply #95 on: September 08, 2011, 05:33:08 am »
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I can see why someone as liberal as Udall would be losing in Utah, but isn't Udall a Mormon? If so, how's that affected his polling in the West?
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« Reply #96 on: September 08, 2011, 08:31:28 am »

I can see why someone as liberal as Udall would be losing in Utah, but isn't Udall a Mormon? If so, how's that affected his polling in the West?

Most Mormons are Republicans.

I probably should've taken it into account and made the state gray, though - dittos with GE polls.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #97 on: September 15, 2011, 10:26:20 pm »

TIME – The belated “Surprise”, this time in November
December 16th, 1979

Since our last article, things looked as if they were going to continue on their trends. However, a major shake-up on November 6th, 1979 effectively threw everybody’s pre-conceived notions on this election out the window, and it was a new betting environment.

On November 6th, in response to the United State’s admission of the Shah, a large mob of students encompassed the United States Embassy in Tehran, Iran. After initial provocation, one guard misfired and a firefight broke out, with over fifteen student casualties, before the throng physically trampled the guards and entered the beleaguered embassy. Over two dozen embassy staff members have been reported ‘missing’ during the height of conflict, and several black and female staffers have been repatriated.

CIA operatives and members of the State Department rushed to contact President Ford. However, the President had been under anesthesia for a minor operation, and having invoked the 25th amendment, Acting-President Baker was the man in charge. He would address a frightened and worried nation that morning, many of whom were waking up to the news. With a calm and cool demeanor, Baker had assuaged the nation’s fears, for the time being.

This was a major game-changer in the Republican presidential primary. Until November 6th, Vice President Baker’s campaign, surviving only on its own inertia and volunteer workers, seemed like a lost cause. Governor Connally was above 40% in most polls, and purportedly the Vice President was even mulling over dropping out. He was seen as too moderate and too tied to an unpopular administration. However, with the events of November 6th, the Vice President saw his numbers bump to 46%, knocking down Governor Connally to 31%, in concurrence with President Ford seeing his approvals soar to 62%, an all-time high.

On the Democratic side, each of the contenders saw their numbers against the Republicans take a hit. However, Senator “Scoop” Jackson has been the benefactor of these events, as the public wants a candidate “tough” on the Iranians. In response to faltering poll numbers, Representative Morris Udall has ended his presidential campaign, instead drafting the “Big Four” to run regional candidacies.

In the South, Senator Dent, who previously had declined to run, announced his bid. In the plains and Rockies, freshman Senator Scott Westman is campaigning. On the Pacific coast, and in white affluent areas, Governor Jerry Brown is running. In New England, political veteran and former Vermont Governor Philip H. Hoff has announced a symbolic return to politics. The “Big Four” announced at a joint-press conference and affirmed they would be cooperating, in hopes of bringing the primary to the convention.
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« Reply #98 on: September 15, 2011, 10:27:12 pm »

I'll do polls/maps for this entry tomorrow. This is the last one before the Iowa caucuses, and I'll try to do the primary cycle at a more brisk pace than I have so far.

EDIT: Oh, massive credit to Kal for helping me come up with the regional candidacies.
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« Reply #99 on: September 16, 2011, 06:40:24 am »
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I have to admit the regional candidacies idea is pretty genius.  It perfectly showcases the opposition progressive and libertarian leaning Democrats have with a war hawk like Scoop Jackson.  Gods praise Morris Udall's Coalition to Defeat the Warmonger!

I lol'd at "the Big Four".  Kind of sounds like a basketball tournament or something.  Which of course would make sense given Mo Udall's past as a basketball player.
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