Gay Marriage Referendum Coming to Minnesota

[realisticidealist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

[So the Heroes Fall]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

So by that you mean overwhelmingly white liberals?

[bgwah]

Gay marriage might win if only because opinion on the subject is rapidly changing. It wouldn't really be fair to compare it to a state that voted on it in 2004 after looking at how much the pro-gay marriage side has increased in nationwide polls since then. MN would have banned it 7 years ago, but in 2012? I could see it winning.

[realisticidealist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

So by that you mean overwhelmingly white liberals?

Maybe in the Twin Cities, but I can't see Iron Range or Red River Valley Democrats supporting gay marriage.

[So the Heroes Fall]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

So by that you mean overwhelmingly white liberals?

Maybe in the Twin Cities, but I can't see Iron Range or Red River Valley Democrats supporting gay marriage.

There is not a single major elected official in the Iron Range who doesn't support gay marriage. Duluth is one of three cities in Minnesota (You can probably guess the other two) to recognize domestic partnerships for unmarried couples living together, including homosexuals.

The Democrats in the Red River Valley are mostly the liberals and college kids in Moorhead. Sure there are olds and all in the rural counties, but they don't make up a very large percentage of the state.

[realisticidealist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

So by that you mean overwhelmingly white liberals?

Maybe in the Twin Cities, but I can't see Iron Range or Red River Valley Democrats supporting gay marriage.

There is not a single major elected official in the Iron Range who doesn't support gay marriage. Duluth is one of three cities in Minnesota (You can probably guess the other two) to recognize domestic partnerships for unmarried couples living together, including homosexuals.

The Democrats in the Red River Valley are mostly the liberals and college kids in Moorhead. Sure there are olds and all in the rural counties, but they don't make up a very large percentage of the state.

Duluth will almost certainly vote for gay marriage. I could see St. Louis County going either way, though it will probably end up going as Duluth goes, but that isn't enough.

Regardless, I think we've seen in a number of states that the percentage of elected officials who support gay marriage at the state level tends to be higher than the percentage that gay marriage recieves in referenda locally.

Having the election in 2012 may allow it to ride Obama's coattails, but I'm still pessimistic about its chances.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I'm wondering how the black neighborhoods in north Minneapolis will vote. It wouldn't surprise me if they vote against because the DFL will be distributing tons of "sample ballots" saying to vote no on it. Still there's no question that some precinct in north Minneapolis will have the largest gap between Obama's numbers and the "no" vote.

I wonder how my precinct will vote?

89% Obama

56.5% White
20.1% Black
13.5% Hispanic
5.1% Asian
2.2% Native
2.6% Other

So if the whites are 80-20 against, the blacks are like 60-40 in favor (see what I said above), everyone else is about 50-50, and the whites and blacks disproportionately turn out, then about 70% against?

(Not sure if I'll live here on election day 2012, but it's not likely I'll be living somewhere much different even if I'm not.)

[So the Heroes Fall]

County map prediction. Thoughts?



I should note that those two counties to the east of St. Louis are more like latte liberal havens than working class Dems.

[Ebowed]

I should note that those two counties to the east of St. Louis are more like latte liberal havens than working class Dems.

Cook has undergone a fairly recent transition (at least in terms of voting patterns), Lake appears to have a very strong DFL tradition.  Is Carlton better described as 'working class', and was Lake previously covered by this as well?

[Senator X]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

Arizona already defeated a ban in 2006.

[Holmes]

Get ready, Minnesota. "If homosexual marriage comes to your state, teachers will be telling your children that they can get married to another boy or girl, just like they did our son... but he's in second grade! *disgusted look*"

Every commercial break.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Does it ban civil unions too or just marriage?

Get ready, Minnesota. "If homosexual marriage comes to your state, teachers will be telling your children that they can get married to another boy or girl, just like they did our son... but he's in second grade! *disgusted look*"

Every commercial break.

And the Mormons have somewhere to send their money other than Romney now.

[Meeker]

For what it's worth, this Star Tribune poll has the ban going down 55 to 39. It loses amongst every demographic but self-identified Republicans, those making more than $75,000 a year and those with no college education (though the last two are within the margin of error).

It even loses 51 to 44 amongst those aged 65 or older.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/121725399.html

[So the Heroes Fall]

Does it ban civil unions too or just marriage?

It bans either civil unions or marriage being ordered by a court, but doesn't prohibit the legislature from passing a civil unions law.

I should note that those two counties to the east of St. Louis are more like latte liberal havens than working class Dems.

Cook has undergone a fairly recent transition (at least in terms of voting patterns), Lake appears to have a very strong DFL tradition.  Is Carlton better described as 'working class', and was Lake previously covered by this as well?

Lake still is pretty working class, but otherwise it's mostly people who like owning lakeside homes and all that stuff. Carlton is mostly just suburban Duluth. The southern half is pretty working class, but nowhere is all that socially conservative.

[realisticidealist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

Arizona already defeated a ban in 2006.

That was a special circumstance. The Arizona bill banned civil unions too and was in general worded poorly. Arizona banned gay marriage in 2008 anyway.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Here's another interesting question: Where will the no vote run the furthest behind Obama? And where it will be closest?

I say:

Furthest behind: Kittson. It's possible it'll be >60% Obama and >60% Yes.
Closest: Nicollet, very polarized.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The vote breakdown from the House. Kind of interesting:

REPUBLICANS VOTING YES:

 Abeler (Anoka); Anderson, B. (Buffalo Twp); Anderson, D. (Eagan); Anderson, P. (Starbuck); Anderson, S. (Plymouth); Banaian (St. Cloud); Barrett (Shafer); Beard (Shakopee); Benson, M. (Rochester); Bills (Rosemount); Buesgens (Jordan); Cornish (Good Thunder); Crawford (Mora); Daudt (Crown); Davids (Preston); Dean (Dellwood); Dettmer (Forest Lake); Doepke (Orono); Downey (Edina); Drazkowski (Mazeppa); Erickson (Princeton); Fabian (Roseau); Franson (Alexandria); Garofalo (Farmington); Gottwalt (St. Cloud); Gruenhagen (Glencoe); Gunther (Fairmont); Hackbarth (Cedar); Hamilton (Mountain Lake); Hancock (Bemidji); Holberg (Lakeville); Hoppe (Chaska); Howes (Walker); Kieffer (Woodbury); Kiel (Crookston); Kiffmeyer (Big Lake); Lanning (Moorhead); Leidiger (Mayer); LeMieur (Little Falls); Lohmer (Lake Elmo); Loon (Eden Prairie); Mack (Apple Valley); Mazorol (Bloomington); McDonald (Delano); McElfatrick (Grand Rapids); McFarlane (White Bear Lake); McNamara (Hastings); Murdock (Ottertail); Myhra (Burnsville); Nornes (Fergus Falls); O'Driscoll (Sartell); Peppin (Rogers); Petersen, B. (Andover); Quam (Byron); Runbeck (Circle Pines); Sanders (Blaine); Schomacker (Luverne); Scott (Andover); Shimanski (Silver Lake); Stensrud (Eden Prairie); Swedzinski (Ghent); Torkelson (Nelson Twp); Urdahl (Grove City); Vogel (Willmar); Wardlow (Eagan); Westrom (Elbow Lake); Woodard (Belle Plaine); Zellers (Maple Grove)

 REPUBLICANS VOTING NO:

 Kelly (Red Wing); Kriesel (Cottage Grove); Murray (Albert Lea); Smith (Mound)

 DEMOCRATS VOTING YES:

 Dittrich (Champlin); Koenen (Clara City)

 DEMOCRATS VOTING NO:

 Anzelc (Balsam Twp); Atkins (Inver Grove Heights); Benson, J. (Minnetonka); Brynaert (Mankato); Carlson (Crystal); Clark (Minneapolis); Davnie (Minneapolis); Eken (Twin Valley); Falk (Murdock); Fritz (Faribault); Gauthier (Duluth); Greene (Minneapolis); Greiling (Roseville); Hansen (South St. Paul); Hausman (St. Paul); Hayden (Minneapolis); Hilstrom (Brooklyn Center); Hilty (Finlayson); Hornstein (Minneapolis); Hortman (Brooklyn Park); Hosch (St. Joseph); Huntley (Duluth); Johnson (St. Paul); Kahn (Minneapolis); Kath (Owatonna); Knuth (New Brighton); Laine (Columbia Heights); Lenczewski (Bloomington); Lesch (St. Paul); Liebling (Rochester); Lillie (North St. Paul); Loeffler (Minneapolis); Mahoney (St. Paul); Mariani (St. Paul); Marquart (Dilworth); Melin (Hibbing); Moran (St. Paul); Morrow (St. Peter); Mullery (Minneapolis); Murphy, E. (St. Paul); Murphy, M. (Hermantown); Nelson (Brooklyn Park); Norton (Rochester); Paymar (St. Paul); Pelowski (Winona); Persell (Bemidji); Peterson, S. (New Hope); Poppe (Austin); Rukavina (Virginia); Scalze (Little Canada); Simon (St. Louis Park); Slawik (Maplewood); Slocum (Richfield); Thissen (Minneapolis); Tillberry (Fridley); Wagenius (Minneapolis); Ward (Brainerd); Winkler (Golden Valley)

 DEMOCRATS NOT VOTING:

 Champion (Minneapolis); Dill (Crane Lake)

The two Democrats voting yes are from a very conservative seat in northern Hennepin County and a Dem-leaning but not overwhelmingly rural district in western Minnesota. Unsurprisingly both were barely re-elected.

As for the Republicans voting no, Kelly is from a swing district in southeast Minnesota, that voted 52% for Obama (same year he barely won) but was won by Emmer by 4 points and he won in a landslide. It seems like he's aware not every year will be 2010 and is hedging his bets. Kriesel is from a very Dem inner-suburban district and barely won, his district voted for Obama by over 15 points and was even won by Franken by almost 5 points, about the same margin Dayton won it by in 2010. Kriesel barely won the open seat, so it's obvious what he's doing. Murray is from a heavily Dem seat in southern Minnesota, it was won by Obama by 18 points with McCain not even breaking 40, and by Franken by 6. In 2010 it was still won by Dayton by almost 10 points while he barely won by less than half a point, (the reason he won is pretty obvious, the DFL incumbent was from the wrong part of the district and due to that even didn't win by much in 2006 when it was an open seat.) Smith is the biggest surprise, he is from a very right wing (McCain by over 10 points, Emmer by almost 30!) district in the exurbs.

The two bolded Republicans are notable as barely winning in Dem-leaning districts. Both have universities and basically only won due to the college kids not coming out in 2010. Both seats voted for Franken and for Obama by double digits in one and 9 points in another.

[Holmes]

Kriesel's speech:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc4CTsws24o&feature=player_embedded

[Verily]

Smith is the biggest surprise, he is from a very right wing (McCain by over 10 points, Emmer by almost 30!) district in the exurbs.

I'm guessing Smith has a close relative who is gay (either sibling or child, or grandchild if he's old).

[So the Heroes Fall]

Possibly. He's 61 and has only one kid according to bio info.

Kriesel's speech was great. I still hope he loses in 2012 but this puts him at the bottom of the list of vulnerable Republicans I hope lose, like Chafee in 2006.

[Meeker]

I'm confused - the vote was 70-62. In Minnesota do you not need a supermajority in the Legislature to amend the state constitution? Does it only require a majority vote?

[So the Heroes Fall]

Nothing in Minnesota requires a supermajority in the legislature (besides overriding a veto obviously.)

[Meeker]

Interesting.

[Rowan]

I think it passes.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Kelly's speech on it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8-QQ2YN8Qk