NH-CNN/WMUR/UNH: Romney 33% Paul 9% Gingrich 7% Giuliani 6% Pawlenty 6% Palin 5%

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/WMUR/UNH poll of NH.  Daniels got 4% in the poll, but his voters were reallocated based on second choices after he dropped out, which gives this result:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/05/23/topnh1.pdf

Romney 33%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 7%
Giuliani 6%
Pawlenty 6%
Palin 5%
Bachmann 4%
Cain 4%
Huntsman 4%
Santorum 2%

[King]

I expect the winner of Iowa (assuming it isn't Romney) to a ride a bounce into 2nd place.  Romney pretty much has this primary won.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney pretty much has this primary won.

Romney has NH in the bag.

[Nhoj]

Romney pretty much has this primary won.

Romney has NH in the bag.

Yeah, Romney is basically polling at what he got in 2008 in NH

[King]

Romney pretty much has this primary won.

Romney has NH in the bag.

McCain and Giuliani were both polling around or above 20% throughout 2007.  Romney never had a 24 point lead.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney pretty much has this primary won.

Romney has NH in the bag.

McCain and Giuliani were both polling around or above 20% throughout 2007.  Romney never had a 24 point lead.

Rasmussen had him at a 19 point lead just six weeks before the primary:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=33200711290

which he ended up losing by 5 points.  Surely, 7 months+ is enough time for him to lose a 24 point lead.  I'm not predicting it will happen.  He's certainly the frontrunner in NH.  But there is ample time for him to lose his lead there.

[A-Bob]

I doubt we see a change in this polling until the last 2 or 3 months at most before the primary.

[Tender Branson]

The poll also shows that Obama has his best ratings so far when it comes to a possible Democratic primary (289 likely Democratic voters):

New Hampshire Democrats are solidly behind President Obama as their 2012 candidate. When asked if they would vote for President Obama or another Democratic candidate, 73% of likely Democratic primary voters said they will vote for Obama, only 6% said they would vote for another Democrat, and 21% are unsure.

The percentage of Democrats who say they will vote for Obama is at its highest point, and indication that there is little support for a Democratic challenge.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/primary2012_primary052311.pdf

[豚FLY]

Romney pretty much has this primary won.

Romney has NH in the bag.

McCain and Giuliani were both polling around or above 20% throughout 2007.  Romney never had a 24 point lead.

Rasmussen had him at a 19 point lead just six weeks before the primary:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=33200711290

which he ended up losing by 5 points.  Surely, 7 months+ is enough time for him to lose a 24 point lead.  I'm not predicting it will happen.  He's certainly the frontrunner in NH.  But there is ample time for him to lose his lead there.

But who is going to take those votes?
Cain, Gingrich, and Bachmann?

[Korwinist]

Romney pretty much has this primary won.

Romney has NH in the bag.

McCain and Giuliani were both polling around or above 20% throughout 2007.  Romney never had a 24 point lead.

Rasmussen had him at a 19 point lead just six weeks before the primary:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=33200711290

which he ended up losing by 5 points.  Surely, 7 months+ is enough time for him to lose a 24 point lead.  I'm not predicting it will happen.  He's certainly the frontrunner in NH.  But there is ample time for him to lose his lead there.

But who is going to take those votes?
Cain, Gingrich, and Bachmann?

Going by favourability, Paul would (I think it was polled at something like 53-26 a while ago, a little bit behind Romney and light years ahead of most of the other Republicans). I don't think Romney is quite so secure as you guys think; most New Hampshirites won't vote for someone who promoted an individual mandate yet many cross over to support Romney, which leads me to believe a lot simply don't know yet. New Hampshire could very well become competitive if anti-Romney forces mobilized (the Free State Project could probably cause him some pain).

[King]

I'd love to see someone like Paul narrowly beat Romney in NH, but I'm just not that optimistic.

[Korwinist]

I'd love to see someone like Paul narrowly beat Romney in NH, but I'm just not that optimistic.

It would, at the very least, be pretty funny to see what mister "Ron Paul doesn't know nuttin'" would have to say.

[defe07]

I'd love to see someone like Paul narrowly beat Romney in NH, but I'm just not that optimistic.

It would, at the very least, be pretty funny to see what mister "Ron Paul doesn't know nuttin'" would have to say.

You never know! I think the chance stands if things go his way! We're not in 2007 Dorothy dear!

[Liberté]

I'd love to see someone like Paul narrowly beat Romney in NH, but I'm just not that optimistic.

Like I said in the other thread, New Hampshire has a history of swinging towards the underdog in the primaries: Eugene McCarthy, Pat Buchanan and Hillary Clinton had all lost Iowa and were thought down for the count when they won it.

(Well, McCarthy didn't win it, but his showing was respectable enough to put him ahead of Johnson in most of the later states before he dropped out.)

[The Mikado]

There's a pretty hard ceiling for Paul's support.  He certainly won't be going below 6 or 7% ever, but neither do I see him going above 15-18% in New Hampshire even if all the stars align (and 18% would be an "all the stars aligning" situation).