Here's my theory:
Cuomo/Hickenlooper 50.4%/ 295 EV
Huckabee/Thune 48.8%/ 243 EV
Also, notice what happens if IA and PA flip...
remember Cuomo is socially very liberal/fiscally moderate to conservative and Huckabee is socially very conservative/fiscally moderate to liberal):
Southeast:
VA: 52/47 Cuomo, Huckabee drives up rural turnout to the extreme, but by 2016 the guy with a master's degree in Loudoun or Henrico decides the election in VA, and Huckabee scares him.
NC: 50/48 Cuomo, See VA. The Research Triangle, Asheville and Charlotte alone should carry the state if Cuomo comes close to breaking even in the high income suburbs. The rural areas would go like 80/20 for Huckabee, though, but with another couple hundred thousand people having freshly arrived from the northeast, I just don't think that would be enough.
FL: 51/48 Huckabee, the NY connection and fiscal restraint help Cuomo, but retired people just aren't going for gay marriage.
Midwest/Rust Belt:
PA: 48.9/48.2 Cuomo, Philadelphia and its suburbs just barely manage to outvote the rest of the state. Cuomo would lose Scranton and barely hold Pittsburgh, but win decisively in Delaware, Berks, Montgomery, etc.
OH: 53/47 Huckabee, Way too populist for Cuomo to seriously contest.
IN: 56/42 Huckabee, Not a contest here I suspect.
MI: 48.5/48.1 Huckabee, Populist unionized voters defect en masse to Huckabee and turn out is quite low with no big libertarian suburbs to make up the losses.
IL: 55/43 Cuomo, Big Republican gains downstate, but big Democratic gains in the Chicago suburbs.
WI: 51/48 Cuomo, There is a sufficiently large progressive base here to work the turnout machine, and WI may have an LGBT senator by this time. Relative gains in the suburbs offset losses in unionized areas for Cuomo.
MN: 52/47 Cuomo, See Wisconsin. Huckabee would win big in the farming areas and could tie in Duluth, but Cuomo would romp in Minneapolis/St. Paul and its suburbs, and win Rochester.
IA: 49.1/48.9 Cuomo, I'm really unsure here. I just picked how I think IA would vote on a gay marriage repeal referendum in 2016 (barely against).
MO: 61/38 Huckabee, Huckabee takes MO completely off the table.
West:
CO: 60/38 Cuomo, Gov. Hickenlooper on the ticket + 200,000 new ex-Californians + libertarians = massive Cuomo win
NM: 52/46 Cuomo, There would be major populist defections to Huckabee here, but not enough given the state's lean.
AZ: 50/47 Cuomo, And here's where the fiscal restraint/social libertarianism really pays off.
NV: 58/41 Cuomo, Big social libertarian boost.
UT: 62/37 Huckabee, Unsure what would happen with the Mormon vote here, but with Cuomo advocating gay marriage, it wouldn't be enough to make it interesting.
CA: 60/40 Cuomo, Huckabee makes gains in SoCal, but the Bay Area and LA basically block vote for Cuomo.
MT: 49/47 Huckabee, MT libertarians will give Cuomo a second look, but won't break for an NYC Democrat.
New England States where gay marriage is currently legal: all go to Cuomo >60%
MA: 63/35 Cuomo, Obviously strong Dem, socially liberal
VT: 64/34 Cuomo, See MA
CT: 62/37 Cuomo, Any lost Cuomo support in the industrial CT Valley is made up for by romping in the NY suburbs.
NH: 61/38 Cuomo, Huckabee is absolutely toxic to libertarian independents and Cuomo is almost a perfect fit.
New England, gay marriage not currently legal:
RI: 52/46 Cuomo, Historically low Democratic support, a very populist and religious voting base.
ME: 52/47 Cuomo, Portland carries the day, but it's close.
