Canadian Election Atlas

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, what do you all think of an idea of a Canadian version of this site?

It would be nice to have a community of contributors to help out.

Here's what I have so far: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/

I'm currently working on a series of (micro) regional profiles of different communities in Ontario.

[mileslunn]

Well, what do you all think of an idea of a Canadian version of this site?

It would be nice to have a community of contributors to help out.

Here's what I have so far: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/

I'm currently working on a series of (micro) regional profiles of different communities in Ontario.

  Sounds great.  Once the poll by poll comes out, I will try to produce some municipal and county maps for Canada.  If any others want to contribute that would be great.  Also the poll by poll maps were great last time around.  It would be interesting to see those and see where the major changes happened.  I suspect outside Quebec and GTA, only the shade of the colours will change, not the actual colours, but in the GTA I suspect there will be a lot more orange and blue, while Quebec will have rather little tourquoise and a lot of orange.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, what do you all think of an idea of a Canadian version of this site?

It would be nice to have a community of contributors to help out.

Here's what I have so far: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/

I'm currently working on a series of (micro) regional profiles of different communities in Ontario.

  Sounds great.  Once the poll by poll comes out, I will try to produce some municipal and county maps for Canada.  If any others want to contribute that would be great.  Also the poll by poll maps were great last time around.  It would be interesting to see those and see where the major changes happened.  I suspect outside Quebec and GTA, only the shade of the colours will change, not the actual colours, but in the GTA I suspect there will be a lot more orange and blue, while Quebec will have rather little tourquoise and a lot of orange.

Excellent. I can either make you an admin, or I can just put your maps up and give you credit. Also, I can make maps if you can provide the #s like last time, and then thank you for it.

[mileslunn]

Either way works good for me.  Depending on when the polls come out, I may not start making the maps until August as I am on vacation in Europe in July, but certainly I will work on them once I get back.  I also plan to use the maps from 2008 and just change the colours which when done by municipality and county outside Quebec, I think most of the changes will be in shades not actual colour.  Quebec is off course a whole different story although much of the changes will simply changing the tourquoise to orange.

[Hatman 🍁]

Either way works good for me.  Depending on when the polls come out, I may not start making the maps until August as I am on vacation in Europe in July, but certainly I will work on them once I get back.  I also plan to use the maps from 2008 and just change the colours which when done by municipality and county outside Quebec, I think most of the changes will be in shades not actual colour.  Quebec is off course a whole different story although much of the changes will simply changing the tourquoise to orange.

Hmmm, I have a good idea to bide the time. I can make a 2008 Census Division map (with shades), perhaps we can start on 2006 as well? 2004?

Pundit's guide has poll maps for 2000, we can do them as well. (the results are somewhere on the elections Canada website)

[mileslunn]

I would say probably best to use the most recent election and then the most recent divisions.  I wouldn't mean though doing Montreal, Ottawa, Hamilton, and Toronto pre-amalgamation.  In the case of Montreal, I suspect the NDP will probably do better pre-amalgamation as the inclusion of the more affluent West Island areas will bring there's done.  Hamilton will be an NDP-Tory split being NDP in the old city of Hamilton and Tory in the amalgamated areas, while Ottawa is Tory is the amalgamated areas but I wonder if the NDP took the old city of Ottawa this time around?  Likewise in Toronto I suspect the NDP took the old city as well as York and East York, while the Tories probably only took North York although Etobicoke was a tight Tory-Liberal race and Scarborough was a three way split.  Interesting either way.  For starters, lets use the maps we used in 2008 and just adjust the colours.  That would be a good comparison to see how things changed.  Also poll by poll breakdown would be good since in Ontario, most of the changes were in the GTA which municipality by municipality wouldn't capture.  Outside the GTA, I really doubt that many municipalities or counties switched parties, only the margins changed.  Off course a second place map by party might be interesting too as I think the NDP overtook the Liberals for second place in much of Ontario outside the GTA. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I can assure you the NDP did not win the old city of Ottawa. They may have finished 2nd, however. By the looks of things the results were:

Lib: 70,000
NDP: 65,000
Tories: 65,000

[mileslunn]

I can assure you the NDP did not win the old city of Ottawa. They may have finished 2nd, however. By the looks of things the results were:

Lib: 70,000
NDP: 65,000
Tories: 65,000

Similiar to the 416 and Vancouver proper as they were both three way splits.  I believe half of John Baird's riding is in the old city so that is probably where the Tories got many of their votes and in Ottawa South the NDP as usual didn't do that well.  They did win Ottawa Centre by a large margin and the Tories came in second here.  Do you have any actual data or links to any or was this just what the riding association provided?

[Hatman 🍁]

I can assure you the NDP did not win the old city of Ottawa. They may have finished 2nd, however. By the looks of things the results were:

Lib: 70,000
NDP: 65,000
Tories: 65,000

Similiar to the 416 and Vancouver proper as they were both three way splits.  I believe half of John Baird's riding is in the old city so that is probably where the Tories got many of their votes and in Ottawa South the NDP as usual didn't do that well.  They did win Ottawa Centre by a large margin and the Tories came in second here.  Do you have any actual data or links to any or was this just what the riding association provided?

The only info I saw is what the candidate in Ottawa South showed me; he didn't give me the information, unfortunately. The NDP won 3 polls and tied 2 others.

By the way, I was just compiling the census division map, and I noticed you never did the NWT.

[mileslunn]

I can assure you the NDP did not win the old city of Ottawa. They may have finished 2nd, however. By the looks of things the results were:

Lib: 70,000
NDP: 65,000
Tories: 65,000

Similiar to the 416 and Vancouver proper as they were both three way splits.  I believe half of John Baird's riding is in the old city so that is probably where the Tories got many of their votes and in Ottawa South the NDP as usual didn't do that well.  They did win Ottawa Centre by a large margin and the Tories came in second here.  Do you have any actual data or links to any or was this just what the riding association provided?

The only info I saw is what the candidate in Ottawa South showed me; he didn't give me the information, unfortunately. The NDP won 3 polls and tied 2 others.

By the way, I was just compiling the census division map, and I noticed you never did the NWT.

  True I never did NWT.  Maybe this time we can try.  Last time around all the division maps I got were before it was split into Nunavut and NWT thus the reason I never did it.  In the case of Southern Ontario outside of Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa, I could certainly do a map using the 2000 census divisions although I suspect it will be all blue either way as the Tories got over 50% in much of Southern Ontario outside the cities so I am not sure it will make much difference, but I would certainly be willing to do one though.

[adma]

Re Ottawa, remember that the most likely "Tory-leaning" parts of Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South and Ottawa West-Nepean are (aside from Vanier proper) outside the old centre--and the reverse can be said for the NDP...

[adma]

Oh, and because I momentarily can't be bothered selecting a profile to respond on-site, may I offer one little clarification: in Beaches-East York, to use the "Woodbine Heights" neighbourhood catchall for the strongest Liberal zone is deceptive, because the outsize Grit support there is largely limited to the Crescent Town development (and outside the former East York, in the Sunrise/O'Connor/Vic Park apartments)--elsewhere in Woodbine Heights, the Liberals are actually not far from or even below par...

[Hatman 🍁]

I can assure you the NDP did not win the old city of Ottawa. They may have finished 2nd, however. By the looks of things the results were:

Lib: 70,000
NDP: 65,000
Tories: 65,000

Similiar to the 416 and Vancouver proper as they were both three way splits.  I believe half of John Baird's riding is in the old city so that is probably where the Tories got many of their votes and in Ottawa South the NDP as usual didn't do that well.  They did win Ottawa Centre by a large margin and the Tories came in second here.  Do you have any actual data or links to any or was this just what the riding association provided?

The only info I saw is what the candidate in Ottawa South showed me; he didn't give me the information, unfortunately. The NDP won 3 polls and tied 2 others.

By the way, I was just compiling the census division map, and I noticed you never did the NWT.

  True I never did NWT.  Maybe this time we can try.  Last time around all the division maps I got were before it was split into Nunavut and NWT thus the reason I never did it.  In the case of Southern Ontario outside of Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa, I could certainly do a map using the 2000 census divisions although I suspect it will be all blue either way as the Tories got over 50% in much of Southern Ontario outside the cities so I am not sure it will make much difference, but I would certainly be willing to do one though.

By 2000, I mean the 2000 election. I was referring to doing past elections. Not past census divisions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, and because I momentarily can't be bothered selecting a profile to respond on-site, may I offer one little clarification: in Beaches-East York, to use the "Woodbine Heights" neighbourhood catchall for the strongest Liberal zone is deceptive, because the outsize Grit support there is largely limited to the Crescent Town development (and outside the former East York, in the Sunrise/O'Connor/Vic Park apartments)--elsewhere in Woodbine Heights, the Liberals are actually not far from or even below par...

Ahh, thank you. I'm relying on MapArt maps, having little knowledge of Toronto neighbourhoods.

[Smid]

Great idea, mate! I'll be checking it out!

[Hash]

I have maps of 1917 and 1921 in Ontario, and the necessary maps to make 1925, 1926 and 1930 as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have maps of 1917 and 1921 in Ontario, and the necessary maps to make 1925, 1926 and 1930 as well.

Really? Let's see them! Where did you get a base map?

[Hatman 🍁]

CD map posted. I had a shaded one going, but it didn't save properly, so I made this one quick.

[Hatman 🍁]

Comments have been enabled for anonymous users.

[Smid]

Was just checking it out and it looks great! You've obviously invested a good deal of time and effort in it. Anyway, if you want to use any of my work, maps, etc, feel free and no need to credit me - I'm happy to see it as my contribution.

[Hatman 🍁]

Was just checking it out and it looks great! You've obviously invested a good deal of time and effort in it. Anyway, if you want to use any of my work, maps, etc, feel free and no need to credit me - I'm happy to see it as my contribution.

Excellent. I'm going to steal all your maps from the gallery then ;-)

[MaxQue]

Was just checking it out and it looks great! You've obviously invested a good deal of time and effort in it. Anyway, if you want to use any of my work, maps, etc, feel free and no need to credit me - I'm happy to see it as my contribution.

The same, as long you continue to be kind to us.

Us being The United Fraternity of the Good Posters and Mappers of the International Board. (UFGPMIB, ugly, I know.)

Continue the great work, please.

[mileslunn]

Like your 2008 election map.  These are not definitive but based on the results, my guess is outside Quebec we will see the following changes.

Tories pick up one of the two Labrador divisions

Cumberland County, Colchester County, Kings County, and Queens County flip to the Tories while possibly one or two of the Cape Breton counties go Tory

Madawaska County flips to the Tories

Numerous divisions flip to the NDP in Quebec and the Liberals win zero, while the Bloc Quebecois might win a few and the Conservatives will hold most although maybe not all in the Appalaches-Chaudieres and one in the Saguenay.  Also maybe one in the Ottawa Valley as the area adjacent to Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke tended to vote for Lawrence Cannon in much larger margins than the other parts of the riding.  I believe the Canadian Alliance even won a few polls here back in 2000.

In Ontario, York Regional Municipality, Peel Regional Municipality, and Nipissing District flip to the Tories.  Hamilton is still unknown since although I show the NDP slightly ahead, this excludes the polls in the Niagara West-Glanbrook portion which tend to favour the Tories.  Frontenac County is a tough call since although the Liberals won Kingston & The Islands, they got clobbered pretty badly in Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington.

In Manitoba, it will be interesting to see if the Liberals hold Division 23 or if it flips to the NDP.  Pretty small population so tough to tell, although I believe Tina Keeper was from this area this why it went Liberal last time around.

In Saskatchewan, the two northern divisions probably went NDP this time around as the Liberals got in the single digits in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River.

In BC, I can confirm the NDP won the Capital Regional District, but my guess is everything else stays the same. 

In Nunavut, considering the Tories won by a much larger margin this time around, they probably took all three divisions but tough to know until we see the polls.

[mileslunn]

Here are my preliminary predictions for Atlantic Canada.  Once the polls come out I will update with the actual results

[mileslunn]

Here are my preliminary predictions for Quebec and Ontario.  I will admit Quebec is tough to predict although I think the general picture will probably look close to this.  In Ontario Hamilton and Frontenac County are the only two I am unsure about.  The others I am pretty much positive on.