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Author Topic: Illinois Congressional Jujitsu  (Read 13425 times)
Meeker
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« on: May 28, 2011, 11:49:46 pm »
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We're already starting to see the effects of Friday's map reveal...

- Bill Foster is back for a run in the new 62% Obama 11th CD. Jason Atkinson, who up until this point had been challenging Dan Lipinski in the 3rd CD but whose home was moved into this district, may also run.

- The current occupant of the 11th CD, Adam Kinzinger, is now in Jesse Jackson Jr's 2nd CD which he obviously is not going to run in. Kinzinger is now signaling that he plans to challenge longtime GOP Rep. Don Manzullo in the 16th CD. Fun!

http://www.pantagraph.com/news/state-and-regional/illinois/article_0737a8b2-897d-11e0-b9cc-001cc4c002e0.html
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2011, 07:47:51 am »
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I'd like to see Foster back in Congress. Always liked him.

Any word on what Shimkus is going to do? He'd possibly win his new district....but it was rather cleverly drawn to go after him.
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2011, 11:38:00 am »
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Darn, I was hoping Kinzinger would stay around a little longer.

What a disgusting, partisan map, if I may add.
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2011, 11:45:30 am »
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Darn, I was hoping Kinzinger would stay around a little longer.

I pointed out elsewhere that Manzullo might be in trouble; the majority of the new IL-16 consists of territory from other districts (including about 200k people from IL-11). Kinzinger might have a shot at beating him in a primary.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2011, 01:12:43 pm »
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Here is an excellent analysis of the new Illinois map.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/514/red-racing-horsess-analysis-of-llinoiss-congressional-redistricting-map-written-by-a-chicagoan

IL-16: Don Manzullo (R-Eagan). Rep Manzullo will be 68 by the time this rural/exburban Chicago vote sink holds its next election in 2012. Adam Kinzinger (R-Manteo) would not live in this seat, however, he may run here, as it contains some of his current territory. Manzullo has never been known as a great fundrasier/campaigner, and will feel pressure from the Republican Party to step aside for the young, exciting, and charismatic freshman Congressman from Manteo. Kinzinger gives great speeches, and is a naturally gifted campaigner, and he may also scare Manzullo, who hasn't had to campaign tirelessly for years. If a primary between the two materializes, look for it to be a battle of conservatives trying to push to the right. Kinzinger will have more Tea Party support, but it'll be an uphill battle to knock off Manzullo. If the GOP in Illinois has its way, Manzullo will retire, and Kinzinger will have a long, prosperous political career in this 50.1% Obama, R+4 or R+5 Safe R district (again, those seats do not fall in Illinois).
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Meeker
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2011, 01:19:36 pm »
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I too would not be surprised if Manzullo retired.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2011, 02:25:54 pm »
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Any word on what Shimkus is going to do? He'd possibly win his new district....but it was rather cleverly drawn to go after him.
Wait... Shimkus? I thought they made that even safer?
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Meeker
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2011, 02:32:17 pm »
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Any word on what Shimkus is going to do? He'd possibly win his new district....but it was rather cleverly drawn to go after him.
Wait... Shimkus? I thought they made that even safer?

He'll probably have to fight Tim Johnson for it... unless Johnson decides to run in the swing 13th CD. Or retire.
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2011, 02:33:46 pm »
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Shimkus lives in the St. Louis area actually, in Collinsville, an area that seems like it would be in Costello's district. The new map has the 13th with a tendril reaching down to Collinsville, in a new seat that includes Champaign-Urbana and the Dem parts of Springfield and Bloomington. So he's now in a seat that he's not likely to get elected in and bares little resemblance to the old district. The closest seat to his old one is the 15th, which also resembles Tim Johnson's current seat. It's worth noting though that Johnson lives in Urbana, so he is also outside the current 17th and in the same district as Shimkus. But it's the most logical seat for Johnson to run in and he'll obviously "move" there, Shimkus has to choose between the Dem-leaning 13th, moving to the 17th for a primary battle, or maybe even moving to the 12th and taking on Costello (obviously not happening, but if Costello retired it might be seen as a viable option.)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2011, 02:36:00 pm »
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Ya, I guess I took it for granted that the 17th was the Shimkus District.
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2011, 02:38:07 pm »
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The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2011, 02:40:40 pm »
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Darn, I was hoping Kinzinger would stay around a little longer.

What a disgusting, partisan map, if I may add.

After the last set of redistricting (nationwide really) I'm sure the generic response is...Payback is a bitch.

I'd like to see every state drawing districts to have a non-partisan commission, but find me people who are actually going to be non-partisan...even the best people have feelings that can be swayed by current events.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2011, 02:47:07 pm »
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Darn, I was hoping Kinzinger would stay around a little longer.

What a disgusting, partisan map, if I may add.

After the last set of redistricting (nationwide really) I'm sure the generic response is...Payback is a bitch.

I'd like to see every state drawing districts to have a non-partisan commission, but find me people who are actually going to be non-partisan...even the best people have feelings that can be swayed by current events.
Some kind of bipartisan commission with public input is always, always, ALWAYS going to be preferable to legislative redistricting even if it's hardly unpolitical/independent/nonpartisan. Look at Washington, look at Arizona.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Meeker
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2011, 02:53:41 pm »
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Most of those systems just turn into incumbent protection plans. I guess that's preferable to legislative gerrymanders but it's still not ideal.
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2011, 04:46:52 pm »
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The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.


Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2011, 05:06:08 pm »
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The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.


Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.

What makes Johnson a moderate?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2011, 05:27:17 pm »
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The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.


Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.

What makes Johnson a moderate?

He shares the same name with a Democratic senator.
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« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2011, 05:29:18 pm »
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The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.


Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.

What makes Johnson a moderate?

Off the top of my head, his opposition to the Afghanistan troop surge and his oil drilling opposition.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2011, 05:59:30 pm »
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although the Illinois maps are heavily partisan and something that they normally wouldn't do, its something that they MUST do due to the fact that republicans will try to guarantee themselves a majority for the next 10 years so the democrats have to level the playing field.
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« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2011, 06:17:40 pm »
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although the Illinois maps are heavily partisan and something that they normally wouldn't do, its something that they MUST do due to the fact that republicans will try to guarantee themselves a majority for the next 10 years so the democrats have to level the playing field.

...why would a heavily partisan map be something Illinois wouldn't do? The only reason why the last couple Illinois maps weren't gerrymanders is because Illinois had a pretty long string of GOP governors (19772003).
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« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2011, 06:22:27 pm »
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This would have been a more interesting redistricting battle if Brady had edged out Quiinn instead of the other way that actually occurred.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2011, 06:27:30 pm »
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although the Illinois maps are heavily partisan and something that they normally wouldn't do, its something that they MUST do due to the fact that republicans will try to guarantee themselves a majority for the next 10 years so the democrats have to level the playing field.

...why would a heavily partisan map be something Illinois wouldn't do? The only reason why the last couple Illinois maps weren't gerrymanders is because Illinois had a pretty long string of GOP governors (19772003).

And everyone always forgets this, but the Illinois Senate was controlled by Republicans during the last remap (they lost control in 2004).
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« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2011, 07:39:47 pm »
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Timothy Johnson is not moderate, just a mainstream conservative. I've heard he may run in the vote sink, it certainly would be more feasible than running in a D+1.
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JacobNC
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« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2011, 07:21:24 am »
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What a disgusting, partisan map, if I may add.

The districts outside of the Chicago area will look a lot prettier (shape-wise) than they have the past 10 years.
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Franzl
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« Reply #24 on: May 30, 2011, 07:25:14 am »
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What a disgusting, partisan map, if I may add.

Of course it's a partisan map. Most states draw partisan maps though, and Republicans have a lot more opportunities to do it this year....so it only seems natural that Democrats would work with what they have in Illinois.
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