Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[Landslide Lyndon]

  And on the same day, the Chicago Sun Times breaks the story that Walsh owes $117,000 in back child support.  (Good old 'family values' strikes again) 

Family Values AND Fiscal Responsibility.
Now if only he comes out as gay, he could very well become a lock for the Republican of the Year Award.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Grundy County Board member Chris Balkema is considering running for IL-11 on the Republican side. State Sen. Chris Lauzen (whom we may remember as the only person ever to lose an election to Jim Oberweis) was considering it but decided to run for Kane County Board Chair instead.

I'm not sure why Balkema is considering running in the 11th, since Grundy County isn't even in that district, it's in the 16th.

[BigSkyBob]

Grundy County Board member Chris Balkema is considering running for IL-11 on the Republican side. State Sen. Chris Lauzen (whom we may remember as the only person ever to lose an election to Jim Oberweis) was considering it but decided to run for Kane County Board Chair instead.

I'm not sure why Balkema is considering running in the 11th,

Duh!

1) He is eligible to run.


2) He believes either he can win, or he can "win" by losing.


3) He believes 2) is more likely in this district than any other district.

since Grundy County isn't even in that district, it's in the 16th.

Where, exactly,did Rahm Emanuel live before running for mayor of Chicago? Where does Tammy Duckworth live and work?

[krazen1211]

http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/7423387-522/halvorson-to-challenge-jackson-in-2nd.html

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson said Friday she has filed a statement of candidacy with the the Federal Election Commission in the 2nd congressional district of Illinois, a seat held by fellow Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hultgren is running in the 14th, no surprise there.

[Gravis Marketing]

http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/7423387-522/halvorson-to-challenge-jackson-in-2nd.html

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson said Friday she has filed a statement of candidacy with the the Federal Election Commission in the 2nd congressional district of Illinois, a seat held by fellow Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.

Did anyone else guess that krazen would be the one to post this news here?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Walsh is going to run against Hultgren in IL-14, and Kinzinger will run against Manzullo in IL-16 (note: the article claims Manzullo will run in IL-11, but that is false).

[krazen1211]

http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/7423387-522/halvorson-to-challenge-jackson-in-2nd.html

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson said Friday she has filed a statement of candidacy with the the Federal Election Commission in the 2nd congressional district of Illinois, a seat held by fellow Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_33/-208926-1.html?pos=opolh

Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr., Bobby Rush and Danny Davis have concerns about whether the new map adheres to the Voting Rights Act. The trio is also hesitant to help Democrats defend the map in court against a GOP lawsuit.

Some Illinois Democrats speculated Jackson’s frustration over the new map could be a product of his own political predicament. His new Congressional district on Chicago’s South Side includes new urban and exurban territory.

Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D), who served one term and was defeated in 2010, expressed interest recently in challenging Jackson. Halvorson and Jackson have a long history of being at odds with each other, and their relationship is notoriously acrimonious.


Hahahaha!

[Torie]

Are the Black CD's not 50% black VAP?

[Senator Sbane]

If Jackson can't win there, maybe he just isn't a very good congressman. Maybe he should just resign.

[Talleyrand]

If Jackson can't win there, maybe he just isn't a very good congressman. Maybe he should just resign.

[krazen1211]

If Jackson can't win there, maybe he just isn't a very good congressman. Maybe he should just resign.

Perhaps he is afraid of another black person entering the race allowing the district to be captured by a white.

[Senator Sbane]

Maybe it'll be captured by an eskimo? Why does it even matter?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Are the Black CD's not 50% black VAP?

They are all majority-black in VAP. Jackson is just being a baby.

[Torie]

Are the Black CD's not 50% black VAP?

They are all majority-black in VAP. Jackson is just being a baby.

Quite. And if the gravamen of the GOP lawsuit is that it didn't create another 45% Hispanic CD, that is close to, if not actually in, the LOL category. I wonder if Muon2 feels comfortable opining on the merits of that GOP lawsuit. Come on Muon2, be a man, and just do it! Do it now.

[krazen1211]

Maybe it'll be captured by an eskimo? Why does it even matter?

To Mr. Jackson? Probably because he doesn't want to have any competition for his seat. His friend Bobby Rush was really upset when a guy named Barack Obama tried to primary him for his district.

[Gravis Marketing]

To Mr. Jackson? Probably because he doesn't want to have any competition for his seat. His friend Bobby Rush was really upset when a guy named Barack Obama tried to primary him for his district.

There aren't really many congressmen who want to have primary challenges.

[krazen1211]

To Mr. Jackson? Probably because he doesn't want to have any competition for his seat. His friend Bobby Rush was really upset when a guy named Barack Obama tried to primary him for his district.

There aren't really many congressmen who want to have primary challenges.

Precisely, yes. And the best way to avoid that is to change the map; Joe Pitts is attempting to do exactly that in PA.

[Vasall des Midas]

How can they be in this together? Certainly, stronger Black districts means one of them has got to go? Or do they think Lipinski's hometurf is at least in Chicago and ought to have been given to them? In that case, they're basically right, but good luck in court.

[muon2]

How can they be in this together? Certainly, stronger Black districts means one of them has got to go? Or do they think Lipinski's hometurf is at least in Chicago and ought to have been given to them? In that case, they're basically right, but good luck in court.

It could be divided between them and a new southwest side Latino seat.

Luck on minority rights suits in court in the 7th circuit (which includes Chicago) is often predicated on having significant minority groups or leaders on one's side. Their reluctance to go in on the defense is a huge boost to the plaintiffs.

[Verily]

How can they be in this together? Certainly, stronger Black districts means one of them has got to go? Or do they think Lipinski's hometurf is at least in Chicago and ought to have been given to them? In that case, they're basically right, but good luck in court.

It could be divided between them and a new southwest side Latino seat.

Luck on minority rights suits in court in the 7th circuit (which includes Chicago) is often predicated on having significant minority groups or leaders on one's side. Their reluctance to go in on the defense is a huge boost to the plaintiffs.

Except there's not union among minorities because Gutierrez would oppose the creation of a SW Chicago Hispanic seat.

[ill ind]

  I'm guessing that Jackson's comments hinge on 2 things--1 much more prevelant than the other:

1.) Fear of the prospective challenge from Debbie Halvorsen.  Jackson's district is 54% AA which is the highest percentage of the three incidentally.  However his reputation has been pretty tarnished by his involvement with former Governor Blagojevich in the appointment of a replacement Senator for Obama.  AA voters doesn't necessarily add up the votes for an AA candidate either.  Rahm Emanuel's strongest performance in the last Chicago mayoral election came in the AA wards versus Carol Mosely Braun who was backed by alot of the establishment AA leadership and wound up with a miserable vote total.

2.) And I think the one that carries the most weight---The upcoming huge fight over the Chicago Ward remap.  The AA population in Chicago declined by 17% in the last 10 years.  However, AA establishment political leaders are saying that if they lose more than 1 AA majority ward (Chicago has 50 wards) then they will pursue leagal action.  JJJ's wife is the 7th ward aldeman and could easily be remapped into a ward with another incumbent.
  The Latino and Asian populations were the only ones to increase. 
  There was a very contentious court fight after the 1990 remap in which AA leaders wanted one more majority ward drawn.  They didn't get their ward, and the whole court battle only changed a few precincts on the map--and the AA candidate won the ward that wasn't majority AA that establishment leaders wanted anyways.
  In my opinion this is the opening salvo in a game of high stakes poker over the Chicago ward remap.  Jackson, Rush, and Davis could care less about the Congressional remap which pretty much perpetuates their place at the public trough for as long as they choose.



  Ill-Ind

[krazen1211]

Longtime Congressman Jerry Costello (D-Illinois) will not seek re-election in 2012.



Hmm. Interesting. Kirk and Brady of course got about 50% here.

[ill ind]

  Costello's seat will be interesting to watch.  He probably would have been reelected, but a D successor faces the challenge of the fact that in the recent remap Jefferson (McCain by 11%) and the remainder of Williamson (McCain by 15%) were added to the district making it more Republican.  Bet the people who drew the map weren't anticipating this!!

Ill_Ind

[Invisible Obama]

It actually didn't get more Republican, but slightly more Democratic.