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Author Topic: Illinois Congressional Jujitsu  (Read 13306 times)
muon2
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« Reply #100 on: October 04, 2011, 02:42:36 pm »
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It actually didn't get more Republican, but slightly more Democratic.

The current district is D+3 and the new district is D+2 using the 2004 and 2008 presidential results. Keep in mind that Obama overperformed in IL as the favorite son, including parts of IL-12. The equivalent index in another state would probably be a couple points more R.

The district had to add population and areas just north and east could have been added as more reliably Dem. However, since there was a strong incumbent in Costello the district was set at D+2, while those areas I mentioned were used to make the new IL-13 which comes up as D+1. The possibly of a dummymander now looms if they lack a strong candidate or 2012 proves to be another GOP-favoring election.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #101 on: October 04, 2011, 05:37:55 pm »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.
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muon2
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« Reply #102 on: October 04, 2011, 06:34:56 pm »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2011, 07:11:27 pm by muon2 »Logged


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« Reply #103 on: October 04, 2011, 06:58:10 pm »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2012.

The 2012 election happened already? Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #104 on: October 04, 2011, 07:11:02 pm »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 20122004.

The 2012 election happened already? Tongue

My bad. Tongue Thanks for the catch.
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« Reply #105 on: October 04, 2011, 09:47:10 pm »
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It voted for Kerry, and is probably more Democratic down-ballot, so the Dem nominee should at least be favored.
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« Reply #106 on: October 05, 2011, 02:26:02 pm »
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   Debbie Halvosen is set to announce tomorrow that she will indeed challenge Jesse Jackson Jr in the Democratic primary in Il-2.  This will get interesting--a real barn burner-- especially if Aanthony Beale (Chicago 6th ward alderaman) also jumps into the race as rumblings have been going on.  No wonder JJJ is nervous about the remap.
  This race will be over in March after the primary however as governor Quinn got over 71% of the vote here vs Bill Brady back in 2010.

Ill_Ind
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« Reply #107 on: October 05, 2011, 06:12:46 pm »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

But isn't that a mirror image of Obama's overperformance in Illinois--a personal opposition that exceeds the partisan line?
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muon2
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« Reply #108 on: October 06, 2011, 06:53:37 am »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

But isn't that a mirror image of Obama's overperformance in Illinois--a personal opposition that exceeds the partisan line?

My point is that without the connection between Obama and his home state, IL-12 would have had even lower performance for the Dems. The PVI there would probably not be D+2, but something closer to D+0.
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« Reply #109 on: October 06, 2011, 11:12:45 am »
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Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

But isn't that a mirror image of Obama's overperformance in Illinois--a personal opposition that exceeds the partisan line?

My point is that without the connection between Obama and his home state, IL-12 would have had even lower performance for the Dems. The PVI there would probably not be D+2, but something closer to D+0.

But if someone other than Obama were running, the PVI might have been D+2 for other reasons, just as Missouri might have voted Democratic given the economic conditions of the time.
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« Reply #110 on: October 06, 2011, 11:39:43 am »
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It voted for Kerry, and is probably more Democratic down-ballot, so the Dem nominee should at least be favored.

So did NY-9. This is probably another district in which the trend is not the friend of the Democratic party.
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« Reply #111 on: October 28, 2011, 09:12:14 am »
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Dold is running in the 10th.

His first potential opponent? A 25 year old community organizer.

http://glenview.patch.com/articles/waukegan-democrat-is-early-dold-challenger

The community organizer gets the endorsement(s).

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/1011/Progressive_trio_backs_Sheyman_.html



Hopefully the nutter can win the primary here.
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ill ind
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« Reply #112 on: October 28, 2011, 12:36:15 pm »
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  In other Illinois Congressional election news former State Rep Jay C. Hoffman who was going to run for the Democratic nomination in the new 13th district against Tim Johnsod decided to drop out and run for the Illinois 113th Assembly District instead.  113 was 52%-48% Dem in the last gubenetorial election, so he stands a much better chance of winning this race than he did the congressional one.

  Dist 2 JJJ --Ouch! He's in a heck of a pickle.

Ill_Ind
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #113 on: December 09, 2011, 08:11:43 am »
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Joe Walsh is running in IL-08. Good riddance to that trash.
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« Reply #114 on: December 15, 2011, 06:28:57 pm »
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Republican Congressional suit thrown out

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2011/12/judge_rule_against_illinois_go.html
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« Reply #115 on: December 15, 2011, 07:01:27 pm »
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Quote
The main plaintiffs in the case were all but one of the Illinois House Republicans.

Anyone know which one?
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« Reply #116 on: December 15, 2011, 09:38:30 pm »
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The main plaintiffs in the case were all but one of the Illinois House Republicans.

Anyone know which one?

Tim Johnson. In return, Republicans cut his district in their alternative map.
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muon2
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« Reply #117 on: December 23, 2011, 06:23:01 pm »
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Today was the first day for IL Congressional filing, delayed by a month by the court case. Tuesday is the only other day to file, but since signature collection has been underway for quite a while, most were ready to file today. Here's the lineup at the close of filing(bold for incumbents):

IL-1
D: Rush, Russell, Sims, Smith, Lodato, Bailey
R: Collins, Peloquin, Tillman

IL-2
D: Jackson, Halvorson
R: Taylor, Woodworth

IL-3
D: Lipinski, Baqai
R: Jones, Grabowski, Falvey

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt

IL-6
D: Coolidge, Petzel, Ritter, Yates
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Conway, Davis

IL-8
D: Krishnamoorthi, Duckworth
R: Canfield, Evans, Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky, Ribiero
R: Wolfe, Atanus

IL-10
D: Bavda, Schneider, Sheyman, Tree, Rutagwibira
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster, Hickey, Thomas
R: Biggert, Cunningham, Harris

IL-12
D: Harriman, Miller, Wiezer
R: Cook, Plummer, Kormos, Newman

IL-13
D: Gill, Goetten
R: Firsching, Johnson, Metzger

IL-14
D: Anderson, Farnick
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus

IL-16
R: Kinzinger, Manzullo

IL-17
D: Aguilar, Bustos, Gaulrapp
R: Schilling

IL-18
D: Waterworth, Woodmancy
R: Schock, Miller
« Last Edit: December 27, 2011, 06:25:56 pm by muon2 »Logged


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muon2
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« Reply #118 on: December 27, 2011, 06:27:01 pm »
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Filing for the congressional primary is now closed. I've updated the previous post to reflect additions.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #119 on: December 27, 2011, 06:51:20 pm »
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So, just Halvorson is running against JJJ? So much for that being interesting.
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« Reply #120 on: December 28, 2011, 11:42:14 am »
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Lol, lots of vultures around Bobby Rush. He ain't dead yet, folks, and Illinois has no runoff.
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« Reply #121 on: December 28, 2011, 12:31:35 pm »
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Read elsewhere that Biggert and Foster are both about even in internals for both parties.

Certainly the easiest hold of the 4 for the GOP.
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brittain33
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« Reply #122 on: December 28, 2011, 12:40:02 pm »
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Read elsewhere that Biggert and Foster are both about even in internals for both parties.

Do you have a link? That's intriguing, but I can't find it with Google.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #123 on: December 28, 2011, 12:43:35 pm »
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Read elsewhere that Biggert and Foster are both about even in internals for both parties.

Do you have a link? That's intriguing, but I can't find it with Google.

No direct link other than what I read on RRH, which came from 'sources'. Biggert is of course the strongest incumbent in the weakest district and has a reputation of being a 'moderate'. She was certainly attacked by Peter Roskam as such in 1998.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #124 on: January 12, 2012, 02:34:45 pm »
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http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2012/01/illinois_house_ten_poll_puts_s.html

In the north suburban Illinois Tenth House Democratic primary contest, a new poll taken by a group backing Ilya Sheyman shows Sheyman ahead by two points of Brad Schneider but in a statistical tie.






Spectacular. Sheyman is of course Manan Trivedi but without the respectable Iraq War Physician background.
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