Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[ill ind]

  The district voted 53-47 in favor of Bill Brady over Pat Quinn 2 years ago--if anything it's a swing district.  GOP candidate Jason Plummer has a boatload of cash and very good name recognition having been the GOP's Lite-Gov candidate in 2010.  Harriman was hardly the clear favorite.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  My 'gut' is that the Dems knew they were in a crapload of trouble in this race, and found a 'legal' way to get Harriman out and a stronger candidate in.

Ill_ind

[Invisible Obama]

I sort of doubt Democrats were afraid of this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lICjD0aw9M

Plummer is not a great candidate, but I suppose that's a matter of opinion for some.

[Torie]

I sort of doubt Democrats were afraid of this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lICjD0aw9M

Plummer is not a great candidate, but I suppose that's a matter of opinion for some.

How can someone this dumb get so far? 

[MilesC56]

Shilling is up 16 over Bustos in an internal.

[muon2]

Yesterday was the deadline for parties to fill vacancies in their primary ballot, aka "slating". Independents and new parties filed by June 25. This is the updated list (bold for incumbents, italics for slated).

IL-1
D: Rush
R: Peloquin

IL-2
D: Jackson
R: Woodworth
I: Lewis

IL-3
D: Lipinski
R: Grabowski

IL-4
D: Gutierrez
R: Concepcion

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt
G: Wade

IL-6
D: Coolidge
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Davis
R: Zak
I: Monaghan

IL-8
D: Duckworth
R: Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky
R: Wolfe
I: Shioura

IL-10
D: Schneider
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster
R: Biggert

IL-12
D: Enyart
R: Plummer
C: Stufflebeam
G: Bradshaw

IL-13
D: Gill
R: Davis
I: Hartman

IL-14
D: Anderson
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus
C: Pearcy

IL-16
D: Rohl
R: Kinzinger

IL-17
D: Bustos
R: Schilling
I: Reyes

IL-18
D: Waterworth
R: Schock

[ill ind]

  When the Dems get their act together and name a candidate in CD-12, there will be 2 major party candidates in all 18 CDs.
  The sad part is that the number of actual 'races' is quite low:

8,10,11,17 will be the closest probably
13 could be mildly interesting.

The Dems really dropped the ball downstate with 12 along with the fact that they won't even claim their own candidate Michael in 15

The rest are pretty humdrum as a result of the gerrymandering of Illinois CDs.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  The Democrats named retired National Guard General Bill Enyart as their candidate facing Jason Plummer in Il-12.

  Today is also the closing date for filing as an independent or 3rd party candidate.  Several have filed so far, but how many stand after all the objections have been heard remains to be seen.

Ill_Ind

[asexual trans victimologist]

What does IL-12 look like with a Democratic candidate who appears to have a decent, even downright impressive, resume? Still lean/likely R without Costello? Is that even what would have been Costello's district anymore?

[Mr.Phips]

What does IL-12 look like with a Democratic candidate who appears to have a decent, even downright impressive, resume? Still lean/likely R without Costello? Is that even what would have been Costello's district anymore?

IL-12 is at worst a tossup for Democrats.  Even John Kerry won this district. 

[krazen1211]

http://capitolfax.com/2012/06/25/dems-go-with-enyart-but-did-they-do-themselves-any-favors/

Enyart has never run for anything. Plummer has raised a bunch of money, the US Chamber is pumping cash into his effort, and he has a ground game. Enyart has nothing. Plummer will win more votes than a usual Republican would in Madison County because he’s from there and his father is very bigtime. And the Democrats really needed somebody who could appeal to the more “southern” counties outside the Metro East. I don’t think they did that here. Enyart is an unknown, untested candidate up against a battle-tested, well-funded opponent.




The GOP is well prepared to break down the gerrymander and retain a majority of Illinois House seats.

[asexual trans victimologist]

The thing is that 'retired General' is itself appealing to some people, including I would imagine some of the people Enyart needs to win. Plummer is obviously a tried-if-not-necessarily-true-yet candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

http://capitolfax.com/2012/06/25/dems-go-with-enyart-but-did-they-do-themselves-any-favors/

Enyart has never run for anything. Plummer has raised a bunch of money, the US Chamber is pumping cash into his effort, and he has a ground game. Enyart has nothing. Plummer will win more votes than a usual Republican would in Madison County because he’s from there and his father is very bigtime. And the Democrats really needed somebody who could appeal to the more “southern” counties outside the Metro East. I don’t think they did that here. Enyart is an unknown, untested candidate up against a battle-tested, well-funded opponent.




The GOP is well prepared to break down the gerrymander and retain a majority of Illinois House seats.

No way.  Walsh is absolute toast and Dold likely is as well.  Schilling's district got much more Democratic as did Biggert's.  Even if Plummer wins, Democrats will likely come out with a majority in the delegation. 

[ill ind]

  To say that Walsh.Dold, Biggert and Schilling are all toast is ludicrous.

The percentages from the 2010 election for Governor show this.  The Dems won that election by the way.

           Dem percent       GOP percent

1            76.42%                23.58%
2            76.99%                23.01%
3            51.87%                38.13%
4            74.50%                25.50%
5            60.40%                39.60%
6            37.44%                62.56%
7            84.16%                15.84%
8            47.57%                52.43%
9            60.06%                39.94%
10          50.37%                49.63%
11          49.09%                50.91%
12          46.93%                53.07%
13          40.02%                59.98%
14          36.73%                63.27%
15          28.37%                71.63%
16          35.38%                64.72%
17          42.43%                57.57%
18          27.88%                72.12%

 To me it looks like there will be quite a few close elections.  I believe that using Obama vs McCain figures is inacurate because Obama is running for reelection and doesn't appear to have the coat tails---even in Illinois--he once had.  Obama on top of the ticket may actually hurt more than it helps in District 12.

  Keep in mind also that Madison County isn't all in District 12 either.  The portion that is in 12 went Democratic in 2010 52.85% to 47.15% and represented 32% of the county's vote.  Of the remaining vote 22% is in District 15 and went Republican 69.2% to 31.8% and 42% is in District 13 and voted Republican 60.31% to 39.69%.  How much pull Plummer's 'big wig' father has in Western Madison County  remains to be seen as he lives in Edwardsville which is in districts 13 and 15.

  What is disconcerting for Dems is that even though he was favorite son--Obama in 2008 got a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore in 2000 in 7 of the 12 counties in District 12.

  Walsh,Dold, Biggert and Schilling are hardly toast.  Those will be very close elections, but to write them off is a big mistake.

Ill Ind

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can see Dold, Biggert and Schilling putting up somewhat decent fights in their seats.

Walsh is a horse of a completely different color. If this were someone like Kirk Dillard, I would concede him too, but the guy is male version of Michelle Bachmann in a seat that gave Obama what, 56, 58% of the vote?

Plus I wouldn't use the 2010 Gubernatorial race as an adequate comparison for several reasons. The North versus South component is only the most obvious concern, not to mention the differential in turnout and the big no no of translating Gubernatorial results onto federal races.

[muon2]

I've updated my earlier post with independents, Greens, and Constitution candidates.

[Vasall des Midas]

I can see Dold, Biggert and Schilling putting up somewhat decent fights in their seats.

Walsh is a horse of a completely different color. If this were someone like Kirk Dillard, I would concede him too, but the guy is male version of Michelle Bachmann in a seat that gave Obama what, 56, 58% of the vote?

61.5. Which sorta translates to 56-8 in a normal place.

[Torie]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

[Mr.Phips]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

[Torie]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

Yes, true.

[muon2]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

Yes, true.

But I don't picture Bartlett putting up the same fight that Walsh will.

[Mr.Phips]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

Yes, true.

But I don't picture Bartlett putting up the same fight that Walsh will.

Walsh will probably lose by close to 20 points.  Barlett will probably lose by about 10.  He'll got about 58% in the half of the district that he represented, but will likely struggle to get a third of the vote in the half of the district that is new to him and very Democratic.