Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[Torie]

Are the Black CD's not 50% black VAP?

[Torie]

Are the Black CD's not 50% black VAP?

They are all majority-black in VAP. Jackson is just being a baby.

Quite. And if the gravamen of the GOP lawsuit is that it didn't create another 45% Hispanic CD, that is close to, if not actually in, the LOL category. I wonder if Muon2 feels comfortable opining on the merits of that GOP lawsuit. Come on Muon2, be a man, and just do it! Do it now.

[Torie]

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

What do you think the PVI baseline is in Illinois, Muon2?  55.7% two party Obama vote downstate, and 58.7% in Chicagoland (outside heavily black/Hispanic CD's not in play)?

[Torie]

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

What do you think the PVI baseline is in Illinois, Muon2?  55.7% two party Obama vote downstate, and 58.7% in Chicagoland (outside heavily black/Hispanic CD's not in play)?

It's hard to say. As you note downstate is certainly different than Chicagoland, but IL-13 is a string of university towns and that might give it a more suburban feel for its PVI base.

I'm thinking maybe 6% for Chicagoland Muon2, and 3% for the balance of the state (IL-13 maybe in-between). What do you think?

[Torie]

I sort of doubt Democrats were afraid of this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lICjD0aw9M

Plummer is not a great candidate, but I suppose that's a matter of opinion for some.

How can someone this dumb get so far? 

[Torie]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

[Torie]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

Yes, true.