Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[Brittain33]

http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/7423387-522/halvorson-to-challenge-jackson-in-2nd.html

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson said Friday she has filed a statement of candidacy with the the Federal Election Commission in the 2nd congressional district of Illinois, a seat held by fellow Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.

Did anyone else guess that krazen would be the one to post this news here?

[Brittain33]

To Mr. Jackson? Probably because he doesn't want to have any competition for his seat. His friend Bobby Rush was really upset when a guy named Barack Obama tried to primary him for his district.

There aren't really many congressmen who want to have primary challenges.

[Brittain33]

Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

But isn't that a mirror image of Obama's overperformance in Illinois--a personal opposition that exceeds the partisan line?

[Brittain33]

Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

But isn't that a mirror image of Obama's overperformance in Illinois--a personal opposition that exceeds the partisan line?

My point is that without the connection between Obama and his home state, IL-12 would have had even lower performance for the Dems. The PVI there would probably not be D+2, but something closer to D+0.

But if someone other than Obama were running, the PVI might have been D+2 for other reasons, just as Missouri might have voted Democratic given the economic conditions of the time.

[Brittain33]

Read elsewhere that Biggert and Foster are both about even in internals for both parties.

Do you have a link? That's intriguing, but I can't find it with Google.