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Author Topic: PA Gubernatorial Race 2006  (Read 71451 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: December 07, 2004, 11:36:31 pm »
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We might as well start this thread now. Let's try to keep the conversation here.

So far the candidates are...

Governor Ed Rendell (D)
State Senator Jeff Piccola (R)
Former Lt. Governor Bill Scranton (R)
Mac McCawley (R)

Rumored candidates

Congressman Pat Toomey (R)
Congresswoman Melissa Hart (R)

Let the discussion begin (though it kind of already has...)
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2004, 11:48:14 pm »
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The NEW PA-13 Thread Tongue
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2004, 12:20:55 am »
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The NEW PA-13 Thread Tongue

In ways, yes, it will be like that. However, the PA 13 thread will really start up again around June-July '05 when candidates start hinting at a run. The PA 13 thread will never die...
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2004, 02:50:50 am »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

Pennsylvania's Governor cycle:

Two terms. Switch parties.

Repeat.


I think the Republicans will wait until 2010 to really spend money on the Governor's race.
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2004, 10:35:29 am »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2004, 12:12:54 pm »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2004, 01:01:25 pm »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.
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danwxman
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« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2004, 03:43:26 pm »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.

What controversy? That blew over pretty quick.

All I know is I'm glad we have a progressive governor, it's exactly what this state needs. To be honest, both parties in PA are run by old people who don't want to let go of their dynasty. Rendell broke that mold which is why he's made enemies in both parties, but he's also been able to work together and passed more legislation then just about every Governor...legislation that actually means something like economic stimulus, the gaming bill, the Pittsburgh financial fix-up and the clean energy bill. Even you have to admit, he HAS accomplished a helluva lot for a only one-term and with a Republican house and senate.
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2004, 04:09:22 pm »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.

What controversy? That blew over pretty quick.

All I know is I'm glad we have a progressive governor, it's exactly what this state needs. To be honest, both parties in PA are run by old people who don't want to let go of their dynasty. Rendell broke that mold which is why he's made enemies in both parties, but he's also been able to work together and passed more legislation then just about every Governor...legislation that actually means something like economic stimulus, the gaming bill, the Pittsburgh financial fix-up and the clean energy bill. Even you have to admit, he HAS accomplished a helluva lot for a only one-term and with a Republican house and senate.

Sure he's accomplished a lot...especially those tax hikes that he promised he would not propose. That's an accomplishment that I'm sure everyone is happy about. The gambling bill...well we have to wait and see to say whether or not that's an accomplishment. Personally, I'm not a big fan of the slots proposal. Then there's that medical malpractice problem that Rendell hasn't really addressed.

We'll just have to wait until the latest ratings come out to see who wins this argument. I expect his disapproval numbers to jump up maybe 2-4 points and his approval rating will probably drop to 49 or 50%.
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« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2004, 04:29:54 pm »
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Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.

What controversy? That blew over pretty quick.

All I know is I'm glad we have a progressive governor, it's exactly what this state needs. To be honest, both parties in PA are run by old people who don't want to let go of their dynasty. Rendell broke that mold which is why he's made enemies in both parties, but he's also been able to work together and passed more legislation then just about every Governor...legislation that actually means something like economic stimulus, the gaming bill, the Pittsburgh financial fix-up and the clean energy bill. Even you have to admit, he HAS accomplished a helluva lot for a only one-term and with a Republican house and senate.

Sure he's accomplished a lot...especially those tax hikes that he promised he would not propose. That's an accomplishment that I'm sure everyone is happy about. The gambling bill...well we have to wait and see to say whether or not that's an accomplishment. Personally, I'm not a big fan of the slots proposal. Then there's that medical malpractice problem that Rendell hasn't really addressed.

We'll just have to wait until the latest ratings come out to see who wins this argument. I expect his disapproval numbers to jump up maybe 2-4 points and his approval rating will probably drop to 49 or 50%.

"Nobody running for Governor who I think is a credible candidate can promise the people of Pennsylvania not to raise taxes," said Rendell. "There's a budget deficit that will approach $2 billion. It may go over $2 billion. Until we see what that deficit is, until we see how much money we can save, nobody can be honest and say, 'I'm not going to raise taxes, no matter what happens.'"

The gambling bill, while it had some flaws, was very tough. Pennsylvania will have the most regulated gambling industry in the country. BTW, Fisher was in favor of slot machines too...but he wanted to use the money for senior's prescription drugs. A noble cause, but I'd rather have it go towards education and property tax relief, wouldn't you? Besides, Pennsylvania's healthcare system is the envy of the country already, we are doing a pretty good job.

The medical malpractice issue was brought up in the legislature but it didn't have enough support from Democrats or Republicans.
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« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2004, 04:56:31 pm »
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Quote
"Nobody running for Governor who I think is a credible candidate can promise the people of Pennsylvania not to raise taxes," said Rendell. "There's a budget deficit that will approach $2 billion. It may go over $2 billion. Until we see what that deficit is, until we see how much money we can save, nobody can be honest and say, 'I'm not going to raise taxes, no matter what happens.'"

I'd like you to go to this website http://www.ontheissues.org/Ed_Rendell.htm and then tell me what it has listed under Rendell's position on the economy and taxes.

Quote
The gambling bill, while it had some flaws, was very tough. Pennsylvania will have the most regulated gambling industry in the country. BTW, Fisher was in favor of slot machines too...but he wanted to use the money for senior's prescription drugs. A noble cause, but I'd rather have it go towards education and property tax relief, wouldn't you? Besides, Pennsylvania's healthcare system is the envy of the country already, we are doing a pretty good job.

Sure the fact that the slots money is going towards education and property tax relief is a good thing. However, I'm not sure if it was the best idea. We'll have to wait and see if it works. I have a feeling it won't be the great idea that everyone thought it would be.

Quote
The medical malpractice issue was brought up in the legislature but it didn't have enough support from Democrats or Republicans.

Did Rendell push for it? I don't remember him addressing the issue that much and we had a situation last year when doctors were walking out. Some had to take their practice out of state. Now my State Representative, Denny O'Brien (R), is a really good guy. I'm glad he's my State Rep. He's also Judiciary Chair. For whatever reason, O'Brien is against caps. This, of course, hurts those who want med. mal. reform and it's one of the few issues that I am in disagreement with him.

My point: You brought up how this did not have enough support from Dems or Republicans. I brought up O'Brien to show that I am critizing him too and not just throwing the blame on Rendell on these issues. However, if Rendell could have pushed for med. mal. reform just as hard as he pushed for the slots, it would have helped our state and our doctors a great deal. Atleast show an effort to get this discussed. It's one of the major issues in PA.
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« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2004, 09:41:45 am »
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Gov. Swann? Lynn might make a run Ex-Steeler seeking backing now

By CHRIS BRENNAN brennac@phillynews.com

TAKE Pennsylvania politics, mix in pro football and that can only add up to Gov. Rendell. Right?

Think again.

Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver who got a taste of politics as part of President Bush's re-election campaign this year, yesterday confirmed that he is thinking about running for governor in 2006.

"While a decision is not imminent, he is discussing the issue with family, friends and political leaders," a spokeswoman for Swann said, reading from an e-mail he sent her in response to questions from the Daily News.

That could pit Swann against Rendell, who does a Philadelphia Eagles post-game television show for Comcast SportsNet.

It might also set up a Republican primary battle between Swann, former lieutenant governor Bill Scranton III and state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Bob Asher, a GOP National Committeeman from Montgomery County, said Swann called him Tuesday seeking support.

Swann will make his pitch to Republican leaders this weekend in New York City during the annual Pennsylvania Society event.

"I think if Lynn Swann stays in it, you'll see an interesting year as everybody moves around and builds support," said Asher, who has not decided on a candidate to back in 2006. "I think right now it's wide open."

Piccola yesterday said Swann called him Tuesday to say he was interested in making a run for governor. He praised that courtesy, calling Swann "a class guy."

Piccola, who will also be drumming up support at Pennsylvania Society, said he is "97 percent" sure he will run for governor.

"I'm way down the road," Piccola said. "I'm gearing up."

Scranton did not return phone calls yesterday.

Swann has also been making calls for support from Republican leaders in the General Assembly.

Rendell seems well-positioned to win re-election in 2006 after navigating through a Republican-controlled Legislature a package of campaign promises that includes legalizing slot machines to increase education spending and lower property taxes.

Democrats and Republicans have taken turns since 1971 controlling the governor's office for eight years.

Speaker of the House John Perzel yesterday said Swann could be a strong candidate in western Pennsylvania but weighs that against the eight-year supremacy of sitting governors and Rendell's ability to raise cash.

"Somebody is going to have to have the wherewithal to raise the money to run against a guy who can raise $50 million," said Perzel. "It's going to take an exceptional individual or something drastic for that to change."

Swann was co-chairman of the African-American steering committee for the Bush-Cheney campaign this year. Bush appointed him in 2002 as chairman of the President's Council of Physical Fitness and Sports. And Swann spoke at the Republican National Convention on Sept. 2.

In an interview with Fox News later that night, Swann was asked why he is a Republican.

"They provide platforms, and they don't give people crutches to walk on," he said. "They give them tools to build. "

Swann, contacted this week at his home in Sewickley Heights, near Pittsburgh, referred calls to his company, Swann Inc.

Fans can visit his company's Web site to view his career football statistics, book him as a paid speaker or purchase a $200 autographed football.

Swann was a first-round draft pick for the Steelers in 1974 after playing in two Rose Bowls for the University of Southern California. He helped the Steelers win four Super Bowls, ending his career after the 1982 season.

He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2001.

Swann reports on college football games for ABC Sports.


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« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2004, 03:31:22 pm »
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We all saw how well Paterno did, and that was in an overwhelmingly Republican district. Rendell would own him.
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« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2004, 05:02:49 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.
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« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2004, 05:46:43 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.
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« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2004, 05:51:50 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.
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« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2004, 05:57:56 pm »
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Gov. Swann.  I like that.
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« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2004, 05:58:42 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

BTW, Holden is moderate on social issues but liberal on economic issues. But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.
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« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2004, 05:59:45 pm »
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Gov. Swann.  I like that.

What were Ridge's accomplishments?
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« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2004, 06:08:17 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.



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« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2004, 06:19:35 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.





1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

2. I've already said before that yes Rendell has made quite a few enemies, even among Democrats. That's because both parties in PA are run by old farts trying to protect their territory, it's sad but true.
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« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2004, 06:21:12 pm »
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Another Candidate

According to http://www.grassrootspa.com ANOTHER conservative Republican from western PA is likely to jump into the race.

Who could it be? Hart? They're also saying that fundraising would not be a problem for this candidate...

Some bad news on Swann: He donated to Kerry and Specter Sad  

Some good news: He's Pro Life.
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« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2004, 06:23:21 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.





1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

Only confirms your thought that you think Rendell is unbeatable. The odds are NOT stacked against the GOP and the reason I brought up fundraising is because Swann himself can bring in the cash.


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danwxman
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« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2004, 06:24:59 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.





1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

Only confirms your thought that you think Rendell is unbeatable. The odds are NOT stacked against the GOP and the reason I brought up fundraising is because Swann himself can bring in the cash.




Incumbent advantage...every Governor has been re-elected...Rendell is still popular. These are commonly known facts, don't deny it. The Republicans just aren't going to spend a lot to take down Rendell, they are going to put it into saving Santorum.
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« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2004, 06:27:17 pm »
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The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

 But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.





1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

Only confirms your thought that you think Rendell is unbeatable. The odds are NOT stacked against the GOP and the reason I brought up fundraising is because Swann himself can bring in the cash.




Incumbent advantage...every Governor has been re-elected...Rendell is still popular. These are commonly known facts, don't deny it. The Republicans just aren't going to spend a lot to take down Rendell, they are going to put it into saving Santorum.

Every incumbent Governor gets re-elected in PA? Not true. The pattern shows that in recent elections that's true but not "every" incumbent. Also, I don't think incumbents had such low approval ratings. Rendell is no Casey. Rendell is no Ridge.
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