PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

Another Candidate


Who could it be? Hart?

Well forget that idea. She's not the latest likely candidate. Here's why:

This individual is both a solid social and fiscal conservative, with one GOP operative comparing his political philosophy to that of Ronald Reagan.

[Sibboleth]

Rendell's approval ratings aren't brilliant, but (last time I checked) they're not actually bad... Ernie Fletcher or Bob Riley would kill for them.

Besides, to beat Rendell the PA GOP needs a moderate (or at the very least someone who is moderate on some things).
Running the most right wing candidate that throws their hat into the ring doesn't strike me as a particulary intelligent idea in a state where the Democrats have a small (but very notable all the same) built-in advantage...

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell's approval ratings aren't brilliant, but (last time I checked) they're not actually bad... Ernie Fletcher or Bob Riley would kill for them.

Besides, to beat Rendell the PA GOP needs a moderate (or at the very least someone who is moderate on some things).
Running the most right wing candidate that throws their hat into the ring doesn't strike me as a particulary intelligent idea in a state where the Democrats have a small (but very notable all the same) built-in advantage...

Once again, Democrats might have a small advantage registration wise but many of those Democrats are conservative who aren't pleased with the Governor. Rendell has made some enemies within his party. And the PA GOP can run a conservative to win.

[danwxman]

There's 500,000 more Democrats in PA then Republicans. I would call that more then a "small" registration advantage.

[Keystone Phil]

There's 500,000 more Democrats in PA then Republicans. I would call that more then a "small" registration advantage.

It doesn't matter if it's "big" or "small." It's obviously not enough since the GOP controls the two Senate seats, the State House, the State Senate, the Attorney General post and a majority of seats in the Congressional delegation.

[Sam Spade]

PA is a very odd state politically.  It's the only state I know of that could elect three such dissimilar people as Ed Rendell, Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum to its main statewide offices.

Based through studying its various regions, my conclusions as to these oddities have come from the fact that eastern PA is filled with Philadelphia and a whole lot of liberal Republicans, western PA is filled with Pittsburgh and a whole lot of conservative Democrats (rivalling Indiana in that spectrum) and central PA is hardcore Republican.

The Dem registration advantage is a myth, IMO.  Exit polls in 2000 showed voters self-identified as 40% Rep, 40% Dem, 20% Ind and my gut would tell me that didn't change a lot in 2004.  I trust self-identification more than party registration in nearly every state where there is party registration.

Polls do tend to be fairly accurate in PA.  It is, in my mind at least, the quintessential swing state (much more so than Ohio) and tends to work well off of balance.  For example, one of the reasons why I think that Santorum will win barring a good candidate is because he is such a nice compliment to Arlen Specter in terms of Republican party thought.  This could quite as well help Ed Rendell as well, depending on who runs against him.

We'll see.

[bullmoose88]

Hmm. Barring a Schweiker surprise run...

I like the idea of Swann.

The GOP better be very careful...they run a conservative and they will lose the SE (and with it the state) to the Philly Governor. (Who by the way...I like...especially on Eagles Postgame)

[Keystone Phil]

Hmm. Barring a Schweiker surprise run...

I like the idea of Swann.

The GOP better be very careful...they run a conservative and they will lose the SE (and with it the state) to the Philly Governor. (Who by the way...I like...especially on Eagles Postgame)

We agreed on a lot on this post! Wow.

I doubt Toomey will be running now. I'm hoping for Hart. If neither of those two run, I want Schweiker or Swann.

The part where we disagree - the fact that you like the "Philly" Governor especially on Post Game Live. I'm not fan of that.

[Keystone Phil]

Dent for Governor?

http://rendellblog.blogspot.com/2004/12/charlie-dent-possible-gubernatorial.html

Very interesting. And apparently, Dent has been trying to find out who some of the State Senators support in the GOP primary.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

My Eddie is going NOWHERE!  He will be serving the state of Pennsylvania until 2010 and at that him either Chris Heinz or him will be replacing Sen. Specter.

[Keystone Phil]

My Eddie is going NOWHERE!  He will be serving the state of Pennsylvania until 2010 and at that him either Chris Heinz or him will be replacing Sen. Specter.

"My Eddie is going NOWEHERE!" The only thing you guys can say. It's like "No one can beat Ed Rendell because he likes the Eagles...he likes a good cheesesteak...Ed Rendell is AWESOME!" Give me a break. As for Chris Heinz, he's another person going no where. We learned that the while the name helps, it doesn't mean its a win. Example: PA 17.

[Keystone Phil]

We have our first drop out. Mac McCawley has ended his bid for the GOP nomination for Governor.

[12th Doctor]

Gov. Swann.  I like that.

What were Ridge's accomplishments?

Ummmm... there are many, but I fail to see how that relates to this.

As for your other comment, Santorum doesn't need to be saved.  He saved Specter.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=650

The latest Quinnipiac numbers are out for Governor Rendell.

Rendell enjoys a 52% approval rating (same as Santorum) but a lower disapproval rating (30%). Rendell looks good in this area (unfortunately) but wait a second. That's what the poll release says at the beginning. As you scroll down, the numbers show somethign different.

Rendell - 51% approve. 33% disapprove. That's a drop of one point in the approval rating area and a three point jump in disapproval.

Rendell vs. Piccola - 52% - Rendell and 28% - Piccola
Rendell vs. Scranton - 50% - Rendell and 35% - Scranton
Rendell vs. Swann - 50% - Rendell and 34% - Swann

Bad news for Rendell.

48% want to see Rendell re-elected while 38% do not want another four years.

So in the end it looks like this:

Rendell - 51% approve/33% disapprove
Specter - 55% approve/34% disapprove
Santorum - 52% approve/31% disapprove

Santorum has the lowest disapproval rating. 

[Jake]

I was about to post this.  Nice work Phil.

Looks like any GOP candidate looks to have a shot.  Only 50 percent at this stage of the game is bad news.

[Keystone Phil]

I was about to post this.  Nice work Phil.

Looks like any GOP candidate looks to have a shot.  Only 50 percent at this stage of the game is bad news.

Rendell would beat Piccola or Scranton. I'm hoping for Swann.

[nick]

If Casey runs for senate I think Rendell will win easily.  To much money, time and energy will be focused on keeping Santorums U.S. Senate seat and the GOP gubernatorial candidate will be left out in the cold.

[Keystone Phil]

If Casey runs for senate I think Rendell will win easily.  To much money, time and energy will be focused on keeping Santorums U.S. Senate seat and the GOP gubernatorial candidate will be left out in the cold.

It would probably be the opposite. Most big time Republicans might just give up on Santorum if he has to run against Casey.

[nick]

Actually, now that I think about it.  If Casey runs for U.S. senate he may take alot of money away from Rendells re-election bid and possibly cost him the election.  Man, I wish I lived in PA.  The 2006 campaigns and elections up there are gonna' be great.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.draftswann.com

Check out the second story on the site. Terry Modonna, who is supposed to be the best political analyst in the state, says that Piccola represents the conservative wing of the GOP in the primary. What a joke. I'm beginning to lose respect for Mr. Modonna.

[Keystone Phil]

 The 2006 campaigns and elections up there are gonna' be great.

Agreed 

While I am hoping for an easy Santorum win (meaning Hafer or someone like her as the Dem nominee) it will still be a great race. Also, Swann vs. Rendell will be a good one, too. I love PA politics.

[Keystone Phil]

Interesting article on Swann and the PA Gov. race.

http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1034700,00.html

[Keystone Phil]

Awww, Pennsylvania Democrats. Keep telling me how popular Eddie is.

From grassrootspa.com


SURVEY USA/WNEP POLL: CASEY 49% SANTORUM 42%, RENDELL 50%, SWANN 44%!!!



Hat tip Justin.

Times Leader:

A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum's 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
...
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.

The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

[danwxman]

Awww, Pennsylvania Democrats. Keep telling me how popular Eddie is.

From grassrootspa.com


SURVEY USA/WNEP POLL: CASEY 49% SANTORUM 42%, RENDELL 50%, SWANN 44%!!!



Hat tip Justin.

Times Leader:

A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum's 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
...
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.

The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Looks good for Rendell. I could see his challenger, possibly Swann, getting about 44%. Give almost all the undecideds to Rendell. 55-44 looks like a good outcome.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

danwxman, I agree.  How is some washed up Steelers WR giving Rendell a challenge?  I mean is that the best the GOP can do? 

We may have to pound the pavement on Santorum as well.  How is this jackass getting these good poll numbers?