Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

I figured this might have an official thread. If the National Board's constitutional amendment passes next month, the convention will take place between November 1, 2012 and February 28, 2013. In the highly unlikely event said amendment fails, the convention will be held October 28-29 of this year. The date will be announced no sooner than 5 months in advance.

...

That said, let's take a look at potential candidates.

 
Scott Brison


 
MP since: 1997
Riding: Kings-Hants, NS
*Critic: Finance
Cabinet: Public Works (2004-6)
Age: 44
Party wing: Centre-right
 
Pros: policy wonk, excellent Commons performer, charismatic, cabinet experience, organizational skill.
 
Cons: PC past, poor 2006 showing.



Denis Coderre


MP since: 1997
Riding: Bourassa, QC
Frontbench: N/A
Cabinet: Immigration and Citizenship (2002-3), President of the Privy Council (2003-4), La Francophonie (2003-4)
Age: 47
Party wing: Centrist

Pros: Cabinet experience, organizational experience.
Cons: abrasive, temperamental, insubordinate, a failure as Quebec lieutenant.



 
Dominic LeBlanc
 
MP since: 2000
Riding: Beausejour, NB
Critic: Defence
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 44
Party wing: Centrist
 
Pros: excellent Commons performer, personable, experienced non-Quebec Francophone.
 
Cons: near-zero name recognition outside the Hillverse or NB.
 
 
David McGuinty
 
MP since: 2004
Riding: Ottawa South
Frontbench: House Leader
Cabinet: N/A   
Age: 51
Party wing: Centre-left
 
Pros: Experienced, high name recognition, bilingual.
 
Cons: An Ed Balls-type figure, plus he happens to be his brother’s brother.

For Quebec lieutenant (Rae all but confirmed Garneau will remain in that role despite his utter failure in it)...


Denis Coderre: as described.




Marc Garneau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Westmount-Ville-Marie, QC
Frontbench: Quebec lieutenant, Industry
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 63
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: Highly respected, bilingual, high name recognition.
Cons: has been a failure as Quebec lieutenant, failing to save seats that have been Liberal for generations, plus nearly losing his own seat. Age.



Justin Trudeau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Papineau, QC
Frontbench: Immigration, Youth
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 39
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: universal name recognition, telegenic, charismatic, prodigious fundraiser.
Cons: Insufficient policy depth.


* The Liberal frontbench for this Parliament has yet to be announced, and there are by my count 17 slots to fill, merge or abolish due to vacancies.

In alphabetical order:

Brison: The ideal candidate. His ideas on EI reform and European-style healthcare have been floating around for a decade, and only now are the pundits saying the Liberals should latch onto entitlement reform as a vision thing. Speaking as a Tory activist, I can say that he would be the most formidable. Knows how to connect with rural voters, might persuade them to stop demonizing hunters and drop support for the gun registry. Comfortable in his own skin, which is more than can be said for Harper.

Coderre: I doubt he would make a serious run for leader. The man is quite simply a thug and an incompetent one at that. Look no farther than the intraparty brawl over star candidates 2 years ago that nearly got him expelled from caucus for insubordination. Brings nothing to the table that I can think of.

LeBlanc: He is running and he wants it badly. Already there have been reports of his assembling a team assembled from ex-Martin operatives. His major problem is that he has no personality and no one knows who he is despite having been an MP for over a decade and serving in senior Shadow Cabinet positions. Outside the Hillverse and NB, a complete nonentity- I'd be surprised if non-junkies could pick him out of a lineup. Apparently he's a good Commons performer. Hardly anything on his YouTube channel or CPAC, so nothing to verify that with. Were he elected leader, he would be completely overshadowed by his two top lieutenants: Brison and Trudeau, who both have more charisma in their fingertips than he does in his entire body. Look at any picture of them together to see what I mean.

McGuinty: he's also a brawler, and happens to be his brother's brother. Almost as radioactive in Ontario as Rae is. High name ID, but that's all he has going for him IMO.


Quebec lieutenant:

Coderre: he's already failed at the job.

Garneau: ditto, and nearly lost his seat in the process.

Trudeau: give him the job. His current lack of policy depth (though on many issues his instincts are good IMO) is mostly irrelevant in what is a primarily organizational job. No one else has the star power to compete with Tom Mulcair, plus he has a good constituency organization going in Papineau that should serve as a model for how to work a riding properly- try applying that on the macro level. Needless to say that he can get them "fired up, ready to go" like no other Liberal in the country, plus get the donors to open their wallets. They could do a lot worse IMO.  In the next leadership cycle or 2 he'll be seasoned enough to grab the brass ring.

[Hatman]

I would put McGuinty as a centrist (I mean, he was a Martinite, after all, and his brother is a mixed bag of fun...), and Trudeau as centre-left (I mean, hello!).

[Senator MaxQue]

Justin Trudeau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Papineau, QC
Frontbench: Immigration, Youth
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 39
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: universal name recognition, telegenic, charismatic, prodigious fundraiser.
Cons: Insufficient policy depth.

Trudeau family is hated in Quebec, must I remember you?

[Hatman]

Sounds like Brison doesn't want to run, as he plans on starting a family

One of only 34 Grits elected to the new Parliament, Mr. Brison said he and husband Maxime St. Pierre are thinking of starting a family. “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces,” he said when asked if he is considering another leadership race. “If you’re going to make that commitment, I not only want to be a parent, I want to be a good parent and that’s something we both feel strongly about.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/scott-brison-puts-family-ahead-of-liberal-leadership-ambition/article2009666/?from=sec368

[RogueBeaver]

If anyone knows anything about LeBlanc beyond what I've mentioned, please let us know.

McGuinty: Forgot that he was more fiscally responsible than his brother.

Trudeau: I'm basing this on economic, not social issues. Obviously everyone on that list is a social progressive, including the uber-Martinite Scott Brison. His comments on the sands were pleasantly surprising. Hatred: so were Chretien and Dion, and they won more seats than what the Liberals currently have. Even in the event of a public repentance for torpeoding Meech, which is as likely as Harper streaking down Rideau Avenue in broad daylight, there would still be an underlying issue with most Francophones. Better someone who's hated but has the organizational and fundraising skills than someone who's hated slightly less but has conclusively proven their incompetence.

*I define economic centrism as what Chretien did in the '90s, just so that's clear.


Brison: now there are reports he's mulling it over. There has to be someone opposing LeBlanc who is not radioactive in Ontario. Another coronation would be hammering the final nail into their own coffin.

[mileslunn]

I would agree that McGuinty is centrist, while Trudeau is centre-left.  I don't know about his son, but his father was very much a supporter of bigger government.

I would add a few who are not MPs

Gerard Kennedy

Position: Centre-left

Pros: Originally from the West and a strong supporter of greater grassroots support.

Cons: A weak performer in the last parliamentary session and couldn't hold his own seat

Martha Hall-Findlay

Position: Centrist

Pros: a woman, not part of the old boys club who has long dominated the Liberal Party and has a positive vision to make people want to support the Liberals instead of running on fear of the opponents.

Cons: largely unknown and lost her own seat


Ken Dryden

Position: Centre-left

Pros: a hockey great which is Canada's national sport and also the architect behind Canada's failed childcare program.

Cons: Almost invisible in opposition and couldn't win his own seat

John McCallum

Position: Centrist to centre-right

Pros: bilingual and has a strong financial background so could help the Liberals regain their strength on the economic front which they have surrendered to the Tories.

Cons: Comes across as rather arrogant and not rather appealing, in many ways a big turn off.

John Manley

Position: Centre-right

Pros: Has much experience and very strong credentials, particularly on the economic front.

Cons: His centre-right positions might cause some left leaning Liberals to migrate to the NDP.  Also considering the amount of money he makes in the private sector, I don't see any advantage in returning to recisitate and third party

Frank McKenna

Position : Centre-right

Pros: A very successful premier who won every single seat in New Brunswick which was a province that went largely Conservative.  Also has lots of experience and knows how to win.

Cons: Been out of politics too long and may have trouble appealing to the left wing of the Liberal Party due to his strong Bay Street connections.  Also he makes way more money in the private sector than he ever would as Liberal leader thus monetarily little incentive to run for the position.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone who lost their seat can be safely eliminated. Especially since none of those races were particularly close. Kennedy and Dryden both lost previously safe seats by 15 points, while Hall Findlay is an unknown with no accomplishments in her brief tenure as an MP.

McKenna, Manley and McCallum are too old and have never been interested. Everyone realizes it has to be one of the 40-somethings, either Brison or LeBlanc.

[Hatman]

If anyone knows anything about LeBlanc beyond what I've mentioned, please let us know.

McGuinty: Forgot that he was more fiscally responsible than his brother.

Trudeau: I'm basing this on economic, not social issues. Obviously everyone on that list is a social progressive, including the uber-Martinite Scott Brison. His comments on the sands were pleasantly surprising. Hatred: so were Chretien and Dion, and they won more seats than what the Liberals currently have. Even in the event of a public repentance for torpeoding Meech, which is as likely as Harper streaking down Rideau Avenue in broad daylight, there would still be an underlying issue with most Francophones. Better someone who's hated but has the organizational and fundraising skills than someone who's hated slightly less but has conclusively proven their incompetence.

*I define economic centrism as what Chretien did in the '90s, just so that's clear.


Brison: now there are reports he's mulling it over. There has to be someone opposing LeBlanc who is not radioactive in Ontario. Another coronation would be hammering the final nail into their own coffin.

What the heck is Rideau Avenue? Do you mean Rideau Street? (that's the famous one, anyways)

Howabout Carolyn Bennett as a possible candidate? Sheila Copps? Anne McLellan?

[mileslunn]

I guess you could add Carolyn Bennett, the only problem is I don't think she speaks very much French.  Sheila Copps seems too much from the past, so unlikely if you ask me.  Anne McLellan would be an interesting choice although considering the Liberals are pretty much non-existent in Alberta, I am not sure how keen they would be on choosing someone from that province especially considering that she would face an uphill battle winning her own seat.  Heck from 1993 right through 2004 she never won her seat by very much and that was when the Liberals were much stronger.  As with Carolyn Bennett, the one plus she has is that she is a doctor and considering how important health care will be as an issue in future elections, that could help I guess.  Any others of the 34 MPs we covered who are bilingual?  Pretty much anyone who is not bilingual we can exclude.

[Senator MaxQue]

Any others of the 34 MPs we covered who are bilingual?  Pretty much anyone who is not bilingual we can exclude.

The whole Quebec Liberal caucus is bilingual, I think.

While we obviously exclude Stéphane Dion, there is Francis Scarpaleggia (voted against gay marriage, a big Dion supporter, 53, unknown in Quebec, unlikely), Massimo Pacetti (Italian (!), 48, totally unknown in Quebec, unlikely) and Irwin Cotler (a world-class lawyer on human rights, former Justice minister, but aged 71 and he doesn't seem to be interested by power.)

[Hatman]

Hedy Fry is another one. Cons: batsh*t crazy

[RogueBeaver]

Carolyn Bennett's bilingualism status is unknown (Hell, there are conflicting reports about Brison, but since he has a Francophone spouse I'm assuming he at least speaks conversational French) and she's never indicated an interest. Also too old. Solid in any senior portfolio though.

Quebec: not unless Coderre drinks enough of his own bathwater (far from impossible) and runs.

Can anyone think of a potential downside for LeBlanc besides being a complete unknown? How would he be portrayed in the media? Harper is the soulless, wonky robot and Layton the glad-handing everyman.

[DL]

I don't find Leblanc to be at all "personable". He comes across as a bit of a wet blanket and not charismatic at all. I don't think he is much a retail politician. He may be the best of a mediocre lot - but if he's "personable" - Stephen Harper is the "life of the party"!

[RogueBeaver]

DL: Out of curiosity, are you from NB and/or have you met LeBlanc?

Here are a couple of the few clips I can find. Makes Harper look dynamic in comparison.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dL-qYPUCSU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR6yPJS8WUY

[RogueBeaver]

Were I a senior Liberal, I'd be starting a "Draft Brison" movement about now. Not a huge fan of a primary or dropping fees, but capital gains and effective use of youth are excellent ideas. Drop the gun-grabbing and adopt his old EI/healthcare ideas, and you've got a solid foundation. A Liberal leader who can challenge Harper on his own economic turf is not someone that should not be lightly discarded again.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/30/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved/

[DL]

DL: Out of curiosity, are you from NB and/or have you met LeBlanc?

I'm from Ontario. never met Leblanc - just seen him on TV and find him very blah.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?

[Hatman]

Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?

[Senator MaxQue]

Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?

Considering the current corruption scandals in Québec, that would be an amalgam than most people would do. (For those not aware, there is big scandals about collusion between unions and big building businesses, between businesses and cities and towns for the attribution of contracts, between unions, and organised crime so unions can scare rival unions, businesses and organised crime so rival businesses don't apply for the contracts, between businesses, so cities pay inflated prices for contracts, between businesses and the provincial Liberal Party, between the businesses and local politicians in the style of "I pay all your campaign, but you give me all the contracts" and, finally, between local politicians and provincial politicians in the style of "I pay you and help you, but you try to convince the province to help me and the businesses who pay me". Many of the bosses' of the businesses have Italian names and one MNA named Tony Tomassi was expelled from the Liberal caucus and of his Minister of Family office. The mayors of Laval, St-Jérome, Terrebonne and Mascouche, among others, are suspected, too.)

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

[DL]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

[Senator MaxQue]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

[Smid]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

Would a similar comparison also be Vaughan, which may have seen the Liberal vote fall, but the voters swung to the Conservatives, rather than the NDP? If it's not similar, disregard, but if it is, perhaps low expectations for the Tories may allow the Liberals to hang onto the vote rather than seeing it go NDP?

[Senator MaxQue]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

Would a similar comparison also be Vaughan, which may have seen the Liberal vote fall, but the voters swung to the Conservatives, rather than the NDP? If it's not similar, disregard, but if it is, perhaps low expectations for the Tories may allow the Liberals to hang onto the vote rather than seeing it go NDP?

No. Liberal won over NDP 41-32. Conservatives were 4th, at 8%.

Medium income in Bourassa is also around 2/3 of the medium income (and the half of medium earnings) in Vaughan.
And while Bourassa is heavily Italian, but more than 50% of the population has French has first language (sure, many Haitians are included in that).

So, very different. It also includes a part of the poor and black Montreal-Nord.

EDIT: Never mind, I was reading the number of people having income.

EDIT 2, with a "chart"

              Earnings      Income (for a person)    Income (for an household)
Bourassa  20,106$      19,054$                        33,523$
Vaughan   34,885$      30,053$                       86,915$

Well, the last column is clear.

[mileslunn]

While it is true the Conservatives did well amongst the Italians in Ontario, that doesn't necessarily transfer over to the Quebec.  Pretty much amongst any ethnic group, they will do better in Ontario than in Quebec.  Still I think the NDP could potentially gain Bourassa if it is an open seat.  By-elections take on their own personalities so really tough to say.

As for another leader, how about David Orchard.  He loves to be a tourist in parties that were once strong but a former shell of themselves.  And unlike the NDP who promise to renegotiate NAFTA, he promises to rip it up.  And he is from the West.  Now to be serious I don't think he would win, but considering how many loyal followers he has who will follow him to any party he might play kingmaker much like he did in the PCs.

[Sibboleth]

It simply has to be Hedy.