Kent by-election

[Hatman]

I bet you're putting this data into a spreadsheet, no? I bet you'll have a map ready in no time!

[Senator MaxQue]

31/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 2727 votes (61,5%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 1023 votes (23,1%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 682 votes (15,4%)

[Hatman]

Wow. Not bad. NDP did really well in one of the advance polls. Still no wins yet.

[Senator MaxQue]

Wow. Not bad. NDP did really well in one of the advance polls. Still no wins yet.

I know counting isn't finished, but that's a terrible result for the PC.

[Hatman]

Yes. Wasn't the prediction from the beginning that the NDP would place 2nd?

[Hatman]

Surprised that the Liberals are making gains from 2010. And, at the expense of just the Tories.

[Senator MaxQue]

41/43

Brian Gallant (Liberal) 3317 votes (58,3%)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 1570 votes (27,6%)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 799 votes (14,1%)

[Hatman]

One more poll to go.
Jimmy BOURQUE    PC   821
Brian GALLANT              L   3454
Susan LEVI-PETERS   NDP/NPD   1600

[Hatman]

Final:

Jimmy BOURQUE   M    PC   837
Brian GALLANT   M    L   3543
Susan LEVI-PETERS   F    NDP/NPD   1615

[Senator MaxQue]

FINAL
Brian Gallant (Liberal) 3543 votes (59,1%) (+3.4)
Susan Levi-Peters (NDP) 1615 votes (26,9%) (+11.6)
Jimmy Bourque (PC) 837 votes (14,0%) (-11.7)

[Senator MaxQue]

Those swings would give Liberal 38, PC 37, NDP 22 at provincial level. 

[Hatman]

Turnout was 69.5% WTF

[Senator MaxQue]

Turnout was 69.5% WTF

It was 77.5% in 2010.

[Benj]

Those swings would give Liberal 38, PC 37, NDP 22 at provincial level. 

Which is pretty much exactly where the polls are, incidentally.

[DL]

There have now been two byelections in New Brunswick since the 2010 election. Kent last night and Rothesay last June. The ridings are very very different from one another, but in both cases the pattern was for the Tory vote to crash, the Liberal vote to hold steady and for the NDP to go way up from low teens to high 20s...

I think at the very least it is fair to say that New Brunswick is becoming a party with a three party political system and one consequence of the NDP making such credible showings in these byelections is that between this and the latest polling numbers - the media is now starting to treat the NDP as one of the "big three" in a way they never did before. In the 2010 election the moment the writ dropped the media coverage made it out to be the traditional "Hatfields vs. the McCoys" Tory vs Grit run-off with the NDP treated as a fringe party along side the Greens and the so-called Peoples Alliance...that will not be the case in 2014.

[Hatman]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

[Vasall des Midas]

I love how small these ridings are.

[the506]

I love how small these ridings are.

Look at PEI.

[DL]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

An essential ingredient to winning seats in 2014 is for the NB NDP to be seen as a serious player by the local media...that rubicon has been crossed. It it is one factor that is necessary (though not sufficient) to win seats.

[Vasall des Midas]

I love how small these ridings are.

Look at PEI.

I tried, but their ridings are too small to see without a microscope!

[the506]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

And that's the problem. The NDP surge won't mean a thing if all it means is they finish a stronger 3rd in every riding instead of a weak 3rd. Gotta love FPTP.

[DL]

Maybe not, but the NDP still has no seats.

And that's the problem. The NDP surge won't mean a thing if all it means is they finish a stronger 3rd in every riding instead of a weak 3rd. Gotta love FPTP.

Rothesay and Kent are two of the least winnable and most inhospitable ridings in all of NB for the NDP. If they can make a strong high 20s showing in those ridings - it means that they ought to be very much in contention in ridings in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton where there is already an NDP base to build on and where there will be more three-way races.

[Smid]

DL, don't forget Bathurst.

[Senator MaxQue]

DL, don't forget Bathurst.

The NDP doesn't have really strenght there, it polled wellbecause the leader last time was Acadian. NDP federal numbers in that area didn't translate into results provincially (because that's a personal vote for Yvon Godin, through I suppose NDP got some roots, with the time).

Anyways, with ridings that small, swinging votes with a good candidate is easier and at 20+%, NDP is poised to win seats somewhere (I would guess in Saint John Harbour, first).

Anyways, they should win a seat as soon there is a by-election in a NDP-friendly seat, which Rothesay (suburbs of Saint John) and Kent (ruralish area) weren't.

Don't forget than there is redistricting, too, so seats won't be the same next time.

[adma]

In the 2010 election the moment the writ dropped the media coverage made it out to be the traditional "Hatfields vs. the McCoys" Tory vs Grit run-off with the NDP treated as a fringe party along side the Greens and the so-called Peoples Alliance...that will not be the case in 2014.

This being New Brunswick, tee-hee on the "Hatfields" ref.