Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

The top 2 have already decided not to run.  Bilingualism aside, I would definitely rank Kennedy higher than LeBland. Reasons: experience, name ID, has a spine and personality.

Also, I'd put Trudeau down at B+ because he lacks the requisite experience. LeBland gets downgraded a notch, but for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

More on LeBland:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/989874--hepburn-liberals-look-to-trudeau-and-leblanc

[RogueBeaver]

Why hasn't Elections Canada called in the debt yet?

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/339016/course-a-la-chefferie-en-2006-encore-des-dettes-chez-les-liberaux

Also, LOL at Dad as the keynoter.

[RogueBeaver]

No. Just no.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201112/25/01-4480871-direction-du-plc-marc-garneau-ne-dit-pas-non.php

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy, how does Garneau rate?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Poorly

[RogueBeaver]

On that we agree. Does anyone know much about LeBland other than what's in that Bob Hepburn op-ed I posted? Total unknown.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've met him. He's an idiot.

Wrzesneysky is someone I hope runs.

[RogueBeaver]

I get Dion vibes from LeBland. Weak, indecisive, smart in a nonpolitical sense (the man is an HLS alumnus after all) no personality but even less of a spine. Plus being a total Chretien tool. Back in May, I read in the Globe that he'd been aggressively courting the Martin crowd to sand down his own uber-Chretienite image. Those people need to be ejected, not courted. Which is precisely Wrzesneysky's message.

However, I don't think Wrzesneysky can win. Too mavericky and unknown. Linguistic difficulties aside, I still see Kennedy as the best option.

[RogueBeaver]

Garneau sounds awfully like a candidate. Who else occasionally gets a sinking feeling that once Tequila Sheila becomes president and repeals that leadership contest rule, Rae will jump in?

http://blogs.canada.com/2011/12/28/garneau-considers-stepping-into-the-ring/

[RogueBeaver]

Rae doesn't rule out a run. I'm now changing my mind: he will run if the rules change. Who runs against him is another question. LeBlanc certainly not, BW probably, dunno about Kennedy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rae-wont-rule-out-bid-for-permanent-liberal-leadership/article2287550/

[Χahar]

A Rae run seems inevitable at this point.

[RogueBeaver]

If Tequila Sheila wins the presidency then yep, Rae's running. So we'll know in 13 days from now. He has to convince delegates that his numbers won't tank once Harper's Permanent Campaign machine starts its Blitzkrieg. If he does, then the permanent leadership is his to lose.

[You kip if you want to...]

Could any of them realistically drag them back to second or even... government?

[RogueBeaver]

Could any of them realistically drag them back to second or even... government?

I think Rae, Kennedy or LeBlanc, with the right assistance from outside circumstances, certainly could regain OO. Government- not happening.

[RogueBeaver]

Guys, if Rae runs, what happens to endorsements? Everyone knows that Rae likely wins if he runs, but on the other hand, there are personal obligations to other candidates...

[RogueBeaver]

Copps gets a bunch of voices from the past- Axworthy, Campagnolo, Fox. Self-parodic, but maybe not so much given that the man she wants to replace had his national debut as a Turner co-chair in '84.

MacDonald thinks Rae is the best caucus member for permanent.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/look%2Binto%2Bcrystal%2Bball%2BLiberal%2Bleadership%2Braces/5942990/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Both leading presidential candidates would allow Rae to run, so moving him into the "Likely Yes" category.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/copps-and-crawley-take-the-lead-in-race-for-liberal-presidency/article2291944/

[RogueBeaver]

Did anyone else hear about LeBland not running? Not that I expected him to run if Rae did...

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/2012+about+ideas+unless/5954506/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully Crawley wins, but I suspect Tequila Sheila will.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/2012/01/09/crawley-could-%E2%80%98fundamentally-modernize%E2%80%99-liberal-party-copps-seen-as-%E2%80%98storm/29197?page_requested=1

[lilTommy]

Harper on the Liberal "lemmings"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberal-lemmings-headed-off-cliff-with-rae-tories-charge/article2295840/

we saw how bad any coronation talk turns out for the Liberals... and the NDP seems to be having issues with that idea of a "coronation" in reference to Topp (who i wont vote for). I give Rae some props for defending his 90s government.

[RogueBeaver]

The thing is, of those who are likely running Rae is second only to Kennedy. The other candidates lack skill and/or spine.

Rae's government: So toxic that people actively cited it as a reason not to vote NDP federally 16 years after Rae left Queen's Park. He should focus on a redemption narrative rather than defending the electorally indefensible.

Otherwise, I think a Rae-Kennedy-BW contest would be a vigorous and healthy one for the party.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?

[Sibboleth]

Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?

No, that would be how people tend to view the Harris government.

[lilTommy]

Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?

No, that would be how people tend to view the Harris government.

Depends what side of the coin your on i suppose... Rae is despised by the right for obvious reasons, even if his government walked on water he would still be hated by neo-cons.
Rae is pitied by many in the NDP and moderates; the media and corporations were out to get him from the start, the perfect storm happened while in government (recession, NAFTA) many just believe the lies that Rae was the devil when he was just trying to get through it.
Rae is hated by some in the NDP (the Kromos NDPers)... mainly cause hes backed down, broke promises and went against unions, the base. 2011 was seen as the first real time the party had shed the Rae era stigma so the ONDP was/has been hurt by Rae even thought he long ago ran to the Liberals.
(thats how i see it here)

Rae is stuck with this, my gut says that the LPC will lose seats in Ontario if Rae runs, not many but some... Cause i think some segment of Ontario would have the same hate on him as those in North England have for Thatcher.

[RogueBeaver]

Recent polls show that the Grits are actually in second place in Ontario, usually in the low 30s. Whether that holds once Dippers pick a new leader and our own Permanent Campaign emerges from its current hibernatory state is debatable. Hence why Kennedy is their best choice.

The question is, who runs if Rae does? BW certainly does, Kennedy probably. I'm all but certain that LeBland, Garneau and (David) McGuinty wouldn't run.

Also quite sure that both of those I'd classify as "leaning no"- Brison and Coderre- won't run either. One because he's indispensable in his current role, the other because he's a useless loudmouth.