Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

When will everyone start declaring? The Board will reveal the exact date no earlier than 5 months in advance- which means we might not know for another full year. Surely the campaign will begin this fall?

[RogueBeaver]

Pelciquistes on the upswing. NDP 29, BQ 22, PLQ 19.  What does this look like in your models?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489073-le-plc-profite-dune-baisse-du-npd.php

Double whammy for Duceppe.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489087-gilles-duceppe-de-nouveau-eclabousse.php

[RogueBeaver]

LOL. Tremblay is running and therefore a lock for his fourth term here in Montreal. No way in hell would Coderre run against Rae.

http://www.canada.com/news/Coderre%2Bstill%2Bconsidering%2Brunning%2BLiberal%2Bleadership%2Bmayor%2BMontreal/6050769/story.html

[Senator MaxQue]

Tremblay? A lock for his 4th term?
Considering he was elected because the opposition vote splitted almost perfectly, I doubt it.

[RogueBeaver]

His opponents are a Peq and a hard-left Truther. 'Nuff said. While we might agree to disagree on the mayoralty, we can agree that Coderre probably isn't running for leader.

[RogueBeaver]

What's with this Carney hype I see in the G&M every now and then? Has he ever indicated a poiltical interest, or even indicated an affiliation?

[RogueBeaver]

Raemania continues. Ironically, some Grits and Dippers quoted think that Rae is like PET- always a Liberal (Dipper) at heart. I'm hoping that Kennedy gets in soon, otherwise this will be a real coronation.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/the-liberals-need-a-new-leader-what-about-bob/article2318206/singlepage/#articlecontent

[Peter the Lefty]

How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

[RogueBeaver]

How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

'Tis Blue Liberals returning home. For that the credit should go to Brison.

[lilTommy]

How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

'Tis Blue Liberals returning home. For that the credit should go to Brison.

Agreed, many blue liberals bolted to the tories... i still think they are just parking back in their old spots till they see who the liberal leader is.
The NDP vote hasn't changed much in ON... as a ONDPer, Rae is disliked for a lot more than social contract but that was part of it

[RogueBeaver]

My view is not as rosy as Arnold's.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/dan-arnold-ok-if-its-not-bob-rae-then-who-else/

Rae: No disagreements.

LeBland: A wimp and Chretien/Establishment tool.

Trudeau: Not running this time.

Dalton: ROFL.

David: LOL.

Garneau: Age, insufficiently political.

Brison: Won't run because he can't win. A pity.

Coderre: LOL. A thuggish, insubordinate blowhard. ROFL at organizational abilities: events of the past 3 years have thoroughly debunked that.

Cauchon: Who? Plus he got curbstomped by Mulcair last year.

Kennedy: Best choice, but can't beat Rae.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2012/01/update-on-all-people-not-running-for_31.html
I could back Amanda Lang.

[lilTommy]

That sounds a lot like a wish list too... just like it was thought Doer or Miller would run in the NDP race.
Certain people are (i'd bet money) not going to run:
Robertson (is a NDPer!) Nenshi (too novice, just won last year or so), Copps, McKenna and Goodale (too old and too Chretien era). Ghiz just won again... but maybe if there is a big push

A couple i'm not even sure are Liberals but that dosen't stop anyone really right... Lang, any relation to Andrew Lang (TorontoDanforth candidate previously?) Coyne (not sure its in their best interest to run, they are both pretty comfy now and i don't see them wanting to spend at least 2 terms revamping the Liberals)

Some interesting candidates who are young and should probably be looked at as likely or maybe even courted: Holland, Reagan, Bains could be long-haulers for sure.

Stronach... really?, billionaress and tory-liberal-tory-liberal opportunist... probably not a good choice.

Hmm interesting, Provincial Liberals from PQ or ON might start looking around too... esp if they think they might be beaten in PQ by CAQ.

[adma]

A couple i'm not even sure are Liberals but that dosen't stop anyone really right... Lang, any relation to Andrew Lang (TorontoDanforth candidate previously?)

Brother.  And the father's Trudeau-era cabinet minister Otto Lang.

[RogueBeaver]

There's no one on the provincial scene worth looking at- and need I remind you that provincial transfers have a record of 7 losses, no wins?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Diefenbaker?

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't use that example.

Anyhoo, of those who've expressed an interest, which of them do you think would actually challenge Rae apart from Kennedy and BW? I say none. Certainly not McGuinty, Garneau or LeBland.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What they were doing before they became leader, and then, PM by winning at least one election.
* if they only won a minority.

Harper - Leading the pro-business NCC
Martin - being Finance minister*
Chretien - Working in business, at The Brick (no really)
Mulroney - Big-time businessman.
Trudeau - being in Cabinet
Pearson - Saving the world* (according to the Nobel Peace people), also in Cabinet
Diefenbaker - Lawyer, MP, and repeated political loser
St. Laurent - In Cabinet
King - Labour Negotiator, Lecturer (on circuit), Industrial Researcher
Borden - Businessman
Laurier - In Cabinet, MP
Mackenzie - MP, Media mogul
Macdonald - Premier of Canada, and before that, MP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Lang seems to be the only one (a businessperson) who fits the recent bill of success.

[RogueBeaver]

No one's aiming for anything higher than Stornoway in '15 unless they're consuming something illegal.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Stornoway '15 could well turn into Sussex '16 if the minority is small enough.

[Hatman]

Andrew Coyne cannot possibly be a Liberal. He's too all over the place. Oh wait a minute...

Amanda Lang would be interesting. Let's hope it doesn't make Kevin O'Leary jump into politics. If he ever became PM, I would leave the country in disgust.

And, Liberals: stop trying to poach Robertson. Why would someone with NDP credentials want to become leader of a third party... that isn't the NDP? Usually dippers join the Liberals because they're opportunistic.  And Nenshi? Again, is he even a Liberal? Where would he even run?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

O'Leary is one of the few Conservatives that I could see myself voting for if he was leader.

[RogueBeaver]

At least Rae is saving you guys from your very own Ed Miliband- LeBland.

[Hatman]

O'Leary is one of the few Conservatives that I could see myself voting for if he was leader.

I have lost all respect for you as a human being.