Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[Hatman]

I was hoping he wouldn't run, because it will make for a boring race.

[RogueBeaver]

Garneau and McGuinty are also apparently running. Their interim leader needs to be bilingual, which leaves... LeBland. Is Brison's French good enough? He's the only possible alternative interim to LeBland (who himself might not take it).

But yeah, this is a cakewalk for Rae.

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy, (David) McGuinty, Garneau, MHF, LeBlanc, Coderre?

http://www.canada.com/news/least%2BLiberals%2Btesting%2Bwaters%2Bfederal%2Bleadership/6549450/story.html

[Hatman]

I really want Dalton and David to run. It was fun when two brothers ran against eachother in Britain.

[DL]

The NDP must be thrilled at what a weak field of leadership candidates the Liberals seem to have.

[RogueBeaver]

Crawley said months ago Rae shouldn't be barred, so this is just a formality.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/05/01/liberal-party-to-clarify-rules-for-a-rae-leadership-bid/

[adma]

The NDP must be thrilled at what a weak field of leadership candidates the Liberals seem to have.

At this point, they might as well bite the bullet and promote Justin Trudeau, whether he or anybody else within or without feels he's "fit" or not.

An alternate notion came to mind: what if Bob Rae retired and his provincial counterpart, Glen Murray, moved up to take his place, and...

[RogueBeaver]

He will not run if the Liberals remain in third party status and has said as much publicly. Plus the other reason is his family and said exactly that on TMP 2 months ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Adma has a media crystal ball.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/04/justin-trudeau-should-be-the-next-leader-of-the-liberal-party-no-seriously/

[RogueBeaver]

Believe that when I see it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1173339--hebert-is-justin-trudeau-the-liberals-salvation

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy and Martha Hall Findlay are considering a run.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/05/07/kennedy-hall-findlay-still-mulling-run-for-federal-liberal-leadership/30676?page_requested=1

[RogueBeaver]

So is Joyce Murray, apparently.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison usually gets these sort of scoops early, which is what makes it intriguing. Will only believe that when I see it, of course.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/04/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-can-dominate-attract-the-spotlight-but-can-he-lead-a-team/

[mileslunn]

So is Joyce Murray, apparently.

That would be an interesting pick.  She is from the West where the Liberals only have four seats, quite strong on the environment yet was a member of the BC Liberals who are centre-right as opposed to centre-left.  Certainly I am sure the NDP will bring up her support of Gordon Campbell in the hopes of wooing left leaning Liberals away as many of those vote NDP provincially, although outside BC most don't have too strong an opinion either way on Campbell and in BC the Liberals federally are pretty much dead outside Vancouver and a few suburban ridings meaning most are already in the Conservative or NDP camp.

[RogueBeaver]

Eh, put her in for western lieutenant or whatever you guys call that. Your take on Ivison's Trudeau scoop?

[DL]

Joyce Murray would be a joke of a candidate she was an Eco-terrorist as Environment Minister in the EXTREME rightwing Campbell government...I don't think she speaks any French either.

[mileslunn]

Joyce Murray would be a joke of a candidate she was an Eco-terrorist as Environment Minister in the EXTREME rightwing Campbell government...I don't think she speaks any French either.

  I wouldn't call Gordon Campbell extreme right, but certainly not a Liberal, at least not in the North American sense (In Europe he would be as liberal there means for as little government as possible otherwise right wing economically, left wing on moral issues).  On the environment who was pretty lousy in his first term when she was minister, but quite a different story in the second term, after all that is when BC became the first province to introduce a carbon tax.  The reality is the BC Liberals have always been a coalition of blue Liberals and Tories so in his first term he needed to convince conservatives he wasn't really a Liberal as many were uncomfortable supporting a party with a liberal moniker whereas by the end of his first term many Liberals felt he was just a conservative in liberal clothing so he had to in his second term convince them he hadn't totally abandoned them.

Anyways Murray seems like maybe someone who could be a good cabinet minister, but not leadership material never mind she cannot speak French.  Realistically the Liberals need to chose a Francophone Quebecer if they want to return to opposition and then government the following election.  Quebec is the only province where a party can go from single digits to almost 50% in a single election, i.e. PCs in 1984 and NDP in 2012.  No other province can you get such a large swing in one election, at least not upwards, maybe downwards though.

[adma]

Quebec is the only province where a party can go from single digits to almost 50% in a single election, i.e. PCs in 1984 and NDP in 2012.  No other province can you get such a large swing in one election, at least not upwards, maybe downwards though.

How about the Reform Party in 1993?

[RogueBeaver]

Wasn't the national executive supposed to meet this week?

[RogueBeaver]

The conference call will be next Wednesday. Rae will announce his candidacy once the summer recess starts in 2 weeks.

http://www.globalnews.ca/rae+to+decide+soon+on+liberal+leadership+bid/6442655937/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Rae is released and will announce his candidacy in a couple of weeks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/07/pol-liberal-leadership-bob-rae.html

[lilTommy]

Rae is released and will announce his candidacy in a couple of weeks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/07/pol-liberal-leadership-bob-rae.html

As an outsider, this to me leaves a very bad taste... he promises not to run, then this new executive changes the rules, now hes going to run (even though he promised not to?) giving him a huge advantage since hes been interim leader for what a year now?... just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should.
This looks like another coronation attempt, and the media (should) pick this up... and so will the NDP & Tories.

There has to be better candidates out there?

[RogueBeaver]

Who else is there from caucus (as Topp taught us )? Everyone knew that Rae would find some way to run. Caucus badly wants him, membership is probably less enthusiastic.

Brison: Doesn't want it and wouldn't be elected if he did. Could be interim.

Coderre: No explanation required.

Garneau: Not really leadership material, plus age.

LeBland: Younger, perfectly bilingual Stephane Dion. Not leadership material.

McGuinty: Last name.

Trudeau: Probably doesn't want it this time despite Ivison's story. Too inexperienced at any rate.

[Sibboleth]

Kind of hilarious to see the Liberal Party of Canada reduced to picking a leader on the 'who's left?' principle.

[RogueBeaver]

Rae is still, despite his Ontarian flaws, the best electable (which excludes Brison) candidate. A third party needs a heavyweight leader with media presence if they don't want to die by media asphyxiation.* Take Kennedy: great guy, but few people outside Ontario know who he is and doesn't have the personality or political weight to constantly insert himself in the news. Rae does, in spades. That's partially how Jack Layton kept the NDP floating way above its poll numbers for most of his leadership.


*Which coincidentially, is what's happening to the BQ in our French media- even Le Devoir doesn't say a word about them.