Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, I hope Justin at least gets a haircut.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau @ presser: "Any decision to reconsider my decision will be discussed quietly with my family... decision won't be made in front of you."

Since Rae by all accounts had everything ready to go before suddenly aborting, I'm still unsure about whether Trudeau will actually take the plunge. Could go either way.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/13/pol-liberal-conference-call-wednesday-rae.html

[Holmes]

Harper and Mulcair would wipe the floor with Trudeau, debate and policy-wise. At least go for someone who is experienced and committed; name recognition in 2012 won't help very much for an election in 2015.

If the Liberals think their problem is the face of the party, and electing a celebrity would reverse their fortunes, then stick a fork in them - they deserve their current situation.

[Hatman]

Wow. Big shocker for sure. This will make for an interesting race (especially if Trudeau stays out).

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If Trudeau stays out, I'm calling it for McGuinty.

[RogueBeaver]

If Trudeau stays out, I'm calling it for McGuinty.

Probably, but he also has Ontario baggage. And unlike his brother's provincial opponents both Harper and Mulcair know how to use such material effectively.

[Holmes]

Ontarians won't vote for McGuinties federally and provincially (and soon, not even provincially).

[HagridOfTheDeep]

You're right. But electability has never mattered in Liberal leadership races. I'm telling you: The Liberals will chose another flop.

[Holmes]

It doesn't take a psychic to predict that.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau has an exploratory committee in place, but Ivison reminds us that Rae did too before he aborted. As he reported last week, we won't know the decision till fall. So in the meantime we'll hear from others.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/13/john-ivison-rae-makes-a-graceful-exit-after-reading-the-writing-on-the-wall/

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210978--walkom-with-rae-gone-liberal-leadership-is-trudeau-s-to-lose

[Senator MaxQue]

You're right. But electability has never mattered in Liberal leadership races. I'm telling you: The Liberals will chose another flop.

Well, as all the prospective candidates are probably flops, it isn't a very risky statement.

[RogueBeaver]

Susan Delacourt says that strong dissent within the party was the strongest factor, while Bob Hepburn says Rae didn't think he could stay in for the long haul.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1211051--analysis-lethal-mix-of-attack-ads-fractious-party-culture-helped-bring-down-bob-rae

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1211074--bob-rae-the-real-reason-he-won-t-run-for-the-liberal-leadership?bn=1

[RogueBeaver]

Sometime next April.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/13/pol-liberal-party-leadership-vote.html

[adma]

Rae's allusion t/w possibly not running for reelection made me wonder whether even Glen Murray might be a possibility...

[RogueBeaver]

Rae will be 67 in 2015 and by that point have been in public life for 37 years, a record exceeded only by Chretien among contemporary politicians. He's definitely earned retirement if he wants it.

[RogueBeaver]

The rundown...

Coderre: Interested in Montreal's mayoralty, but hopefully he doesn't get it.

Garneau: Wants a draft, ready-made organization, $$$, etc. LOL.

Hall Findlay: See Kennedy.

Kennedy: Interested but waiting on Trudeau.

LeBlanc: See above.


http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/352429/trudeau-songe-a-la-chefferie-liberale


McGuinty: Also wants a draft but has long signaled interest.


Trudeau: Waiting on spousal approval, which Ivison and Oliver among others think will be forthcoming.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/waiting-for-trudeau-liberal-leadership-drama-revolves-around-his-indecision-159162515.html

[RogueBeaver]

Chretien: Plenty of "good candidates" such as LeBlanc/Garneau/Cauchon/Coderre/Trudeau, Trudeau has "proven himself."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/15/pol-liberals-chretien-on-rae-trudeau.html

What surprises me is that despite Chretien's long history with the Rae brothers, Rae didn't tell the old man he wasn't running.

[Holmes]

I kind of feel like Trudeau is being pressured to run, and that's not really a good thing. It's like, does he even want to run? Would he be totally committed? And does he have a choice - seems like the party insiders and the media is just pushing this onto him as if he's already been crowned the new leader.

[RogueBeaver]

I kind of feel like Trudeau is being pressured to run, and that's not really a good thing. It's like, does he even want to run? Would he be totally committed? And does he have a choice - seems like the party insiders and the media is just pushing this onto him as if he's already been crowned the new leader.

Scott Reid (pundit, not the MP) compared it to Charest in '98. Does he want to run? He's always said that his kids were the reason for staying out this time.* Having gone from Shermanesque to tossup even before Rae bowed out makes me think he's convinced himself that the work-family balance for a third party leader won't be that much heavier than a third party media favourite who gets more press in a week than most MPs do in a year. Now the last part is convincing Sophie. Does he have a choice? In the sense that he can say no and mean it, yes. But in practical political terms, pretty much no.


*He's on the record as saying 24 Sussex is his ultimate goal. Ambition certainly isn't lacking in his makeup.

Craig Oliver: Trudeau and LeBlanc have a mutual-support pact in place. No surprise.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/powerplay#clip701273


For more on that lifelong friendship, here's Bob Hepburn in the Star last year.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/989874--hepburn-liberals-look-to-trudeau-and-leblanc

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the Chretien interview on The House. Basically says that Trudeau passes the qualification threshold, names Clark, Harper, his own dad as people with equivalent or less experience.

http://www.cbc.ca/thehouse/past-episodes/2012/06/16/the-house-jean-chretien/

[RogueBeaver]

Crossposting this Forum poll from the General thread.

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/00294_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Political_Issues_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf


Maybe when Hatman has the time he can plug both results into his model?

[Hatman]

Crossposting this Forum poll from the General thread.

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/00294_Canada-wide_-_Federal_Political_Issues_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf


Maybe when Hatman has the time he can plug both results into his model?

I don't have a federal model. Making predictions at this point is useless, mostly because we don't know what the ridings will look like yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Plugging it into the 2011 model?

[Hatman]

Plugging it into the 2011 model?

Dont have one. I started my predictions after the election for the provincial races.

[RogueBeaver]

Apart from an Orange Massacre in Quebec, no idea how those numbers crunch.