Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[DL]

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

The Liberals probably only managed to hang on in Bourassa because Coderre is still somewhat of a "big name" and because the NDP ran a total unknown - and while that was enough for them to win some totally francophone ridings - the non-francophone vote didn't swing quite as strongly NDP as the francophone did. When and if Coderre quits - it will be a whole different situation. The NDP would probably have a strongly contested nomination and would have all kinds of prominent people wanting to run. Bourassa has a very large Haitian community (which Coderre worked hard at catering to) and the NDP seems to be making major inroads in the recent immigrant/visible minority communities.  It would be a VERY interesting byelection - when and if it happens.

[RogueBeaver]

Coderre would have to run under the UM banner as Tremblay's heir if he wanted to run in 2013.


Bourassa by-election: European and African immigrants are still mostly Liberal, especially African immigrants. More class than ethnicity though, as was mentioned.


Dion: NDP would probably take that seat. The remaining Quebec Liberals won as de facto indies on a personal rather than a party vote, and without Dion that goes.

There are also rumours that Cotler might retire, which would turn MR blue. He lost the Jewish vote but won the Asian vote on a personal basis.

Orchard: You're joking right?

[mileslunn]

Orchard: You're joking right?

No I am not actually.  He won't win the Liberal leadership but much like the PC leadership race he could play kingmaker.  He has about 30,000 loyal followers who will go wherever he goes.  He is almost a cult like leader in some ways.

As for joking matter here are mine though.

Joe Volpe: He can not only win amongst those eligible to vote, but is popular amongst the dead and kids.  Heck I am sure he can find a way to get cats and dogs to support him. 


Gordon Campbell:  If people get tired of the Tories perhaps they will turn to another free enterprise option.  After all he replaced the BC Liberals as the free enterprise party which was previously the Social Credit.  And he could learn French easily, after all his wife was a French teacher (and BTW I actually had her as my French teacher in elementary school and this is not a joke.  I didn't know much about politics back then, but everyone was hoping Campbell would run for premier so they could get rid of her as she gave out detentions, more homework than other teachers and had no problem failing you if you deserved it unlike some other teachers.  She taught at Queen Mary Elementary School which is on the West Side of Vancouver for those of you who are interested.)

Garth Turner: Loves to spout off and as a leader of the turd party as Chretien would say he can spout off all he wants.  In fact the Liberals needs as much media attention as possible.  The danger is being marginalized.

Jennifer Granholm:  Ignatieff didn't live outside of Canada long enough and we need someone who is both a dual citizen and lived outside of Canada for a long time.  After all she only lived her first three years of her life in Canada.  For those of you who don't recongize the name, she is the former Democrat governor of Michigan

[Hatman]

lol @ Jennifer Granholm

[RogueBeaver]

Updating this now that the Shadow Cabinet has been announced. LeBlanc's promotion to Foreign Affairs guarantees that at least in the Hillverse he will come off as a wimp against Baird. Still no sign of a potential challenger. If it comes down to LeBlanc v. McGuinty *shudders*... yeesh.

[DL]

I think in the end Justin Trudeau will run - despite his low intelligence and all the rumours about him - and in a one member one vote process, he will win because Liberals will project on to him and see what they want to see. Then he will lead them to lose official party status in 2015

[RogueBeaver]

He's been Shermanesque on the issue and he wants to be the Blair, not the Kinnock. I'm hoping that Brison reconsiders myself.

[RogueBeaver]

Update: Tomorrow at 3 will be the teleconference vote on postponement to the previously mentioned dates. I still see no reason why it can't be held this December, since only one candidate is all but confirmed (the Strangler's tool) with another (McLiar's brother) quite likely.

[Holmes]

First Bob Rae, then maybe David McGuinty? Please, Liberals! Let it be so.

[RogueBeaver]

It will probably be LeBlanc- a Mr. Vanilla if I ever saw one.

[RogueBeaver]

They just voted to delay the convention to between Nov. 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013, having listened into the phone convention. No links yet. I don't want to offend any Liberals here, so I'll restrict myself to saying that I think it was a horrible decision. Every leadership convention in our history, regardless of party, has been held within a year. The constitution forbids major structural adjustments by an interim leader- the sort of sensible reforms proposed by Scott Reid in this month's Policy Options. There are only three realistic choices for leader, all of whom are well known and/or have deep Rolodexes: Brison, LeBlanc and David McGuinty. IMO there should have been one in the spring or summer of next year.

[Sibboleth]

That's insane.

[Senator MaxQue]

Finally, the Convention won't be between November 1st, 2012 and June 30th, 2013, but between March 1st, 2013 and June 30th, 2013.

So, I think the title can be changed.

[RogueBeaver]

Fixed, but 2013 is still far too late. The first reports of LeBlanc putting his team together were in the G&M within 3 weeks of the election for Chrissakes.

[RogueBeaver]

Bumping because someone has finally identified the problem and hinted they might run.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/canada/rogue-liberal-readies-leadership-bid-62194.html

[Senator MaxQue]

Oh, no, not him. I'm not able to say his name.

By the way, your link is broken, you need to delate the ''http'' at the end.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh, no, not him. I'm not able to say his name.

By the way, your link is broken, you need to delate the ''http'' at the end.

Regardless, the Chretien tool Kodak will still win easily.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've heard a lot of good things about Wrzesnewskyj (rej-NIF-sky) and he was one of the Liberal MP's that impressed me.

He has my tentative support.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Of course it should be pronounced Vshesnevski.

[RogueBeaver]

Till next time, but he's been clear on that for a while.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201110/13/01-4456743-justin-trudeau-ne-sera-pas-candidat-a-la-direction-du-plc.php

[RogueBeaver]

Dalton McGuinty rules out a run yet again, this time after his brother floated the idea. A rather staid race if the choices are between Kodak and David McGuinty.

Also, the new primary system will be adopted for both national leaders and individual ridings per Apps' roadmap. Could a Mod change the title to "... Election 2013 thread" perchance?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201111/26/01-4471963-le-premier-ministre-ontarien-nie-vouloir-se-presenter-a-la-tete-du-plc.php

[mileslunn]

I think unless the party's numbers increase dramatically they will probably chose from one of the current MPs.  Choosing one who isn't an MP is too risky as that means someone has to step aside for them and there weren't too many seats they won by comfortable margins meaning there is a risk of the leader losing the by-election.  In terms of current MPs, my thoughts on potentials are Scott Brison, Dominic LeBlanc, Justin Trudeau, Denis Coderre, Marc Garneau, Bob Rae (yes I know he isn't suppose to run, but this could be changed), Carolyn Bennett, Jim Karygiannis, David McGuinty, and Ralph Goodale.  Anybody else have see any other MPs who might make a run?

[RogueBeaver]

It was always a choice among the currents. LeBlanc and McGuinty are all but certain to run, and most of the others you mentioned won't. Only Brison might change his mind, but I doubt he wants a third consecutive humiliation.

Brison: Best choice (as both leader and potential PM), but can't be nominated.

LeBlanc: Likely nominee, but he's a Chretien tool, unknown and a weak personality.

Trudeau: Till next time, when he has more experience and his kids are older.

Coderre: No, just no. Tremblay's running for a fourth term, so Coderre's locked out of the mayoralty that he apparently wants.

Garneau: No, just no. Too old and shouldn't even be in his lieutenancy position considering how badly he bungled it.

Rae: More Ontarian massacres? People were still telling NDP canvassers no because they remembered the man who hasn't been running their province for 16 years.

McGuinty: Decent choice, though he does have some baggage.

Goodale: Unilingualism, age, politically dated.

[Sibboleth]

Karygiannis? Really?

[RogueBeaver]

If it comes down to a LeBlanc-McGuinty race, then I think LeBlanc has a slight edge over McGuinty but with the potential for a McGuinty upset. There has to be another candidate but can't think of who that would be. Reason I give LeBlanc an edge is his support among the Chretien-centred establishment crowd and unlike McGuinty, would be a fresh face.

As for Rae running, Copps has said she'll repeal that rule if elected party president. However, I believe Rae when he said he's not running. He has an ego but is also very much a political realist these days.