Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What's wrong with Brison?

[RogueBeaver]

What's wrong with Brison?

He doesn't seem to be that popular among the grassroots for some reason. What that reason is, I don't know.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I love Brison, I'd vote for him.

[Hatman]

What's wrong with Brison?

He doesn't seem to be that popular among the grassroots for some reason. What that reason is, I don't know.

Really? A) he's a turncoat. B) he's gay (that is more of a disadvantage than one thinks)

[RogueBeaver]

Had Kennedy not gotten thumped by Nash he'd have also been a leading, perhaps the leading contender. But alas, he unfortunately did.

As for who's better between LeBlanc and McGuinty, meh. Flip a coin. Both are decent without too many negatives, and if Rae does the heavy lifting of internal reform with the grassroots then LeBland's Chretien cronyism won't matter as much.

Brison: PET was also a turncoat, and as for sexual orientation I don't believe that. Maybe in a progressive party which has a substantial rural base, like the NDP or the PQ, but not the urbanite LPC.

[mileslunn]

McGuinty's main baggage is his brother is premier.  While his brother was re-elected provincially, I am not sure people in Ontario want two McGuinty's in power at once, still he is a possibility.  Leblanc seems a like a good choice as he is bilingual, not from Toronto, Ottawa, or Montreal, from a rural riding (most rural ridings the party is irrelevant), although he does have the Chretien baggage.  As for Brison, the problem I think is many of the positions he took when in the Progressive Conservatives (scrapping regional development programs, supporting two tiered health care) would be a little much to stomach for the Liberals.  There seems to be little appetite to pull the party to the right of the centre.  As for Karygiannis, I don't think he will win, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ran and depending on how many show up he might do quite well.  As much of a sleazeball as he is, he is quite popular amongst many of the ethnic communities and could get a lot of votes here.  He also could help the Liberals regain their support amongst the ethnic voters, the only problem is unlike Kenney, he comes across too much of someone who wants to pander to them and that could backfire elsewhere whereas Kenney seems to be more careful to not go so far overboard it backfires elsewhere.  Likewise surprisingly a large number of those from ethnic communities actually resent politicians that single them out.  Many just want politicians to listen to their concerns and ensure they are addressed but still treat them as Canadians, not a different group.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If McGunity becomes leader I will quit the party.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with miles: it's ideology that's Brison's handicap. TBH, I think ideologically he'd fit better on our side of the aisle. (and I for one would be happy to have him) Just 6 months ago he advocated axing the capital gains tax- something which we Tories heartily endorse, but I don't think many Liberals would.

Karygiannis: I don't recall seeing anything, anywhere, about him as a possibility.

LeBlanc: If he can get some personality and more importantly, some firmness, it would be helpful. Otherwise, I agree that an Atlantic perspective is certainly welcome.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the Liberals ever want to win again they'll have to adopt Brison's policies.

[RogueBeaver]

If the Liberals ever want to win again they'll have to adopt Brison's policies.

Well, Rae did give him total authority over economic policy and everyone defers to him. They'll do anything for Brison but vote for him as leader.

Here's what he wrote on policy for the Post back in May.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/30/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved/

Rae publicly investing him with economic authority.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Liberals+need+more+than+talk/5685207/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Anyways, for now the field is confined to LeBlanc and McGuinty with LeBlanc the favorite. In the primaries I say BC is up for grabs, McGuinty sweeps the Prairies and Ontario, LeBlanc wins Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

[mileslunn]

I agree Brison's policies would help the Liberals, but the problem is support for those policies in the party is mostly in areas the party has a weak membership and has lost ground in.  During the 90s when the Liberals were strong throughout Ontario, not just the 416 area code and averaging close to 25% in the West (not enough to win seats, but certainly a much stronger base than they have now in the West) those policies would have been an easier sell.  A lot of Liberals still reminisce back to the Trudeau era of an activist government, despite the fact the NDP has largely cornered that market today and the percentage of the population who supports this is not as large as it once was.  Sure we may support a more activist government than the US has, but that doesn't mean going to the extreme of the 60s or 70s either. 

As for Karygiannis, he is not well know nationally and I don't think he could win and never mind I think the primary system makes it a lot more difficult for him than the previous one.  Under the older system, he just has to sign up a huge number of instant members from a certain cultural community, which he can do quite easily, and then when it comes time to playing kingmaker, he has enough members to influence the final outcome.  But with the primary system I doubt he will go far.  And this is a good thing, as he is a very sleazy politician much like Joe Volpe was whom I heard some Liberals were actually happy to see him lose his seat last election.

[RogueBeaver]

Karygiannis: Has anyone mentioned him as leadership material? If so, 'twud be news to me.

Another good idea would be appointing regional lieutenants on the Quebec model for both Prairie and Atlantic provinces. Lamoureux can take the Prairies, Trudeau Quebec and perhaps John McKay (because Brison has his hands full) for Atlantic.

[Senator MaxQue]

Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

[RogueBeaver]

Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

He's good at organization, fundraising and media- which is what the lieutenant does. When there was polled "who would make a good Liberal leader" both now and in 2007, his Quebec favourables were, well... in line with the national trend. I'll try and find the polls for you.

[mileslunn]

Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

  If anything I think he would be better outside of Quebec.  Lets remember the Trudeau name is still quite popular in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.  By contrast the two provinces where Pierre Trudeau had the highest negative ratings were Alberta and Quebec albeit for different reasons (in the former for the National Energy Program and later for repatriating the constitution without Quebec's approval). 

[RogueBeaver]

All we need is Hebert to endorse the idea before Rae 4 Permanent becomes a Pundit Consensus. I usually agree with MacDonald, but not this time. Brison can't be nominated and LeBland is probably marginally better than McGuinty.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/opinion/MacDonald+Rumours+Liberals+demise+greatly+exaggerated/5785669/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/

[RogueBeaver]

Leading policy resolutions.

http://convention.liberal.ca/

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://convention.liberal.ca/lpc-governance/18-democratic-renewal/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/21-electoral-reform/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/79-preferential-balloting-system/

I strongly back all of these

[RogueBeaver]

http://convention.liberal.ca/lpc-governance/18-democratic-renewal/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/21-electoral-reform/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/79-preferential-balloting-system/

I strongly back all of these

Wouldn't electoral reform require a constitutional amendment? At any rate, most of these proposals look decent. Too bad you're stuck with President Copps for the next 2 years.

[The Head Beagle]

Which person is "Kodak", and why?

[mileslunn]

IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/

A lot depends on the polls too.  The Liberals didn't win any of the 11 ridings by massive margins thus no guarantee they would win again, never mind the Tories always seem to either do really well in by-elections where they are competitive or bomb them where not competitive thus making it easier for the NDP.  My guess is their base is more motivated to show up so they benefit from lower turnouts while in ridings they stand no chance they put no resources into it, thus why they perform poorly.

[Χahar]

IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/

He could run in some Atlantic seat, couldn't he? The Tories would be smart not to put up much of a challenge; if the Liberals stick around, it hurts the NDP.

[Vasall des Midas]

So... what happens in the (obviously theoretical) scenario of a fresh election in 2012? Rae leads the Liberals to victory and then hands over in 2013?