Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[Χahar]

This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.

Oh, I don't care about the rule. It just amuses me as a tradition.

[Holmes]

Rae as leader is probably the worst idea ever. They'll get nowhere in Ontario, and will just drag the NDP down with them there, too. Unless that's their objective. Who knows with them? The media is obsessed with the guy.

[RogueBeaver]

Rae as leader is probably the worst idea ever. They'll get nowhere in Ontario, and will just drag the NDP down with them there, too. Unless that's their objective. Who knows with them? The media is obsessed with the guy.

One of 3 reasons: a) because he keeps referring to his pledge instead of making an unconditional statement b) the media wants to start something with nothing c) media knows something we don't. I'd say a combination of A & B myself.

Teddy: Anti-Rae material hardly needs such a minor addition to it.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.

Oh, I don't care about the rule. It just amuses me as a tradition.

It's better than this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald_%E2%80%93_hairy

[RogueBeaver]

Another Rae article from Le Devoir. We'd all really appreciate it if the media would pay attention to actual candidates like Kennedy, LeBlanc and David McGuinty.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/337811/bob-rae-ne-souhaite-pas-etre-le-chef-permanent-du-parti-liberal-du-canada

[RogueBeaver]

OK forum Grits, who's your choice for leader in a Kennedy/LeBlanc/(David) McGuinty race. I'd say Kennedy is your best shot myself. Only possible negative is being tied to the OLP, but a) no one remembers it b) he left before Dad really went downhill.

[The Head Beagle]

Rae wouldn't be nearly the disaster that is often suggested; the situation with him in Ontario is  complicated.

Even in his 1995 loss NDP got a higher % of the vote in Ontario than in any subsequent provincial or federal election until the breakthrough this year, and exceeded what was considered the NDP "base" during the decade 2000-2010. And given that he was very unpopular with certain sections of his own party, this number probably slightly underestimates the degree to which he was still then pulling in some votes from outside the party's core. And he has rehabilitated his image to some degree since that time in a lot of ways.

The private-sector industrial unions, remember, supported the social contract, and the labour chaos was mostly public-sector; given the recession the party did pretty badly in '95 in industrial areas, but he's not personally toxic there. And urban left-of-centre non-trade-unionists don't particularly dislike the guy.

The personal problems with Rae are concentrated among (a) a small group of very partisan NDP'ers who won't vote Liberal anyway; (b) public sector workers like teachers, who are often the base of the non-Tory vote in Tory areas; and (c) the large section of the population that is firmly anti-NDP, (whether loyally Tory or not) and generally regard the 1990-1995 period as a disaster.

Obviously (c) and to some degree (b) are serious problems, but surely the first step for the party has to be getting NDP votes back - no matter how unlikely you think a return to Lib/Con is, it's surely more likely than a Lib/NDP system. And Rae is probably better than the alternatives among many of the voters these parties actually compete over.

[Χahar]

The problem is that there are a lot more non-NDP votes than NDP votes. If the Liberals want to remain relevant, they need to win back the ridings in Ontario that the Tories have taken from them. Bob Rae will actively hurt them there.

[DL]

The Liberals have actually lost far more votes to the Tories in Ontario over the past decade than they have to the NDP. Those are the votes they need to win back. In 2004 the Tories took 31% in Ontario and this soared to 45% in 2011 ALL from the Liberals. During the same period the NDP vote went from 18% in 2004 to 26% in 2011.

[lilTommy]

I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

Then the choice is David McGuinty, since Scott Brison cannot be nominated. Or you have a centre-left leader who adopts Brison's manifesto (which I posted a while back), i.e. Kennedy or LeBlanc. Pearson and Sharp, PET and Turner, Chretien and Martin provide ample precedent.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I don't know what is up with you and Brison. Brison can be nominated, will be nominated, and will win.

[Senator MaxQue]

I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

Then the choice is David McGuinty, since Scott Brison cannot be nominated. Or you have a centre-left leader who adopts Brison's manifesto (which I posted a while back), i.e. Kennedy or LeBlanc. Pearson and Sharp, PET and Turner, Chretien and Martin provide ample precedent.

Given what the Chrétien-Martin "cold" feud did to the party, I'm not sure it is a good model.

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy, I'm hardly anti-Brison. But given 2006 (which still puzzles me in some ways 5 years later), I'll believe it when I see it.

CSD: So the best comparison is with Sharp, and I'll leave it there.

[RogueBeaver]

Endorsements...

Eyking: Brison or McGuinty, depending who runs.

Dion: Kennedy.

Fry: Kennedy.

Scarpaleggia: Kennedy.

Neville: Not McGuinty.

Sgro: LeBlanc or Kennedy.

Coderre: LeBlanc

Easter: McGuinty

Cuzner: LeBlanc

Bennett: Kennedy

Goodale: Neutral

Cotler: No idea.

Trudeau: Neutral

Chretien: LeBlanc

Martin: Neutral

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe. Though Kennedy's the only candidate with any kind of retail skills.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/are-primaries-the-spark-for-liberal-spirit/article2266175/

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Is Kennedy good enough with "The French"? Last I heard he was somewhere between Dewar and Chisholm.

[RogueBeaver]

Wah wah what? Kennedy is fluent (Brison is Harper-style borderline IIRC) but like Rae, the accent is quite noticeable.

[DL]

Maybe Kennedy's French is better now, but it stank like sh**t when he ran for Liberal leader in 2006. He was billed as being fluently bilingual and then when he opened his mouth in the leaders debates - it turned out that his French was dreadful.

One can be forgiven for not speaking perfect French, but its a big problem when someone boasts about being perfectly bilingual and it turns out that they speak French like my ass chews gum!

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe Kennedy's French is better now, but it stank like sh**t when he ran for Liberal leader in 2006. He was billed as being fluently bilingual and then when he opened his mouth in the leaders debates - it turned out that his French was dreadful.

One can be forgiven for not speaking perfect French, but its a big problem when someone boasts about being perfectly bilingual and it turns out that they speak French like my ass chews gum!

The only one who meets the platinum standard of these contenders is LeBlanc.

[RogueBeaver]

No Quebec candidates this time, though whoever wins will be at least functionally bilingual.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-born-leaders-give-federal-parties-a-significant-electoral-edge/article2267922/

[RogueBeaver]

I'll believe that when I see it, given his very emphatic "a la prochaine" response to this question.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/12/15/lawrence-martin-trudeaus-stinkbomb-fits-the-cursed-times/

[RogueBeaver]

No, just no. Though I'll gladly exchange both MacKay and Prentice for Brison. Who at least is pushing the Grits where they need to be to regain those lost centrist/centre-right votes.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Michael+Tandt+Liberal+Party+leftward+drift+could+open+doors+Tories/5880258/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy, how would your NDP ranking system grade Kennedy, LeBland and David McGuinty?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I would rank the current race as:

Trudeau - A+
Dull McG - A+
LeBland - A-
Dav McG - B+
Kennedy - B

with no changes if the top 2 decide not to run (and I doubt that Dullton will)