Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[mileslunn]

Why would the NDP have any interest in merging with the Liberals when all the polls show the NDP already dead even with the Tories even with the Liberals still staggering through their death rattle with 19% of the vote. It was a totally different situation when the PCs and the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003. The Liberals under Paul Martin were consistently polling over 50% and the PCs and Tories were both in the teens. They realized that merging was the only way to escape annhilation. At the time they weren't even thinking about winning - it was about survival. The NDP has good reason to believe they can win the next election on their own. Why waste time playing games with the dying Liberals?

That might be what the polls say but when you look at a riding by riding breakdown as well as the fact the Liberals were the second place party until recently, I still see parallels.  Maybe not in the next few years, but in the long term.

[DL]

The Tories only have to lose about 12 seats and their majority is gone and then the NDP can form a minority government. The federal Tories right now would lose their majority just on a 1% swing to the opposition...if I'm the NDP I have plenty of reason for optimism.

Again as I said before, in 2003 the federal Liberals looked absolutely, totally, utterly invincible!! Martin was expected to win 250 seats in the 2004 election! Books like "Gritlock" were being written that speculated that the Liberals might NEVER lose power...ever!

Who needs shady deals with the Liberal remnants, by 2015 the Tories will have pissed off a few more people, the NDP will be even more established as the only real alternative and just the slightest little breeze will send Tory seats cascading to the NDP and in some cases to the Liberals in Ontario and BC and a few in Man/Sask.

No one in the NDP or the Liberal parties would give any thought to merger unless they feel they are in a situation of "mutual assured self-destruction". The Liberals might be feeling desperate these days, but I think the NDP sees the next election as being totally winnable and regards the Liberals as irrelevant - which they are!

[adma]

It was a totally different situation when the PCs and the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003. The Liberals under Paul Martin were consistently polling over 50% and the PCs and Tories were both in the teens. They realized that merging was the only way to escape annhilation. At the time they weren't even thinking about winning - it was about survival.

And before that, the formation of the Canadian Alliance was seen as the only way the "redneck" Reformers could seem like a viable governing, as opposed to perennial-opposition, party--sort of like, positioning themselves as a successor to the PCs without actually merging with the PCs.  (Unfortunately, Stockwell Day was no Layton/Mulcair.)

[RogueBeaver]

Open question: who besides Gerard Kennedy might actually run?

On another note, I've noticed for years that the Toronto media has a very bipolar view of Trudeau. When he does well they're all unanimous in gushing restorationism, when he goofs they  write very personal "charming, hunky airhead" screeds (like Gagnon did in February). FFS, even Le Devoir takes a much more balanced approach to a guy they hate for reasons other than his surname. And we Quebecers are supposedly the ones who are emotional and volatile. Michael Den Tandt is one of the few Torontonians who keeps it level- and that's precisely as it should be. Same applies to Tom Mulcair, as I mentioned in the NDP thread.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Punch%2Bdrunk%2Bpolitics/6413606/story.html

[Χahar]

If the Liberals were to hijack the NDP as a way of returning to power, what on earth would be the point of having an NDP?

[RogueBeaver]

If the Liberals were to hijack the NDP as a way of returning to power, what on earth would be the point of having an NDP?

Are we talking about merger? I highly doubt that in said hypothetical "LDP" (or whatever the name would be) Grits would have first dibs on leadership or anything else for that matter. The NDP would dominate said party just like Blues dominate the Conservative Party, and some more right-leaning Liberals (McCallum, Goodale, Brison) might swallow their pride and join our side, where they'd be more comfortable ideologically.

[Hatman]

I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

[Hatman]

I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

You were talking about the CA-PC merger, though. I don't think any Red Tories exist any more, at least not federally. (Chong might be an exception)

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

You were talking about the CA-PC merger, though. I don't think any Red Tories exist any more, at least not federally. (Chong might be an exception)

MacKay and Moore, to name the most prominent. I meant that the NDP would dominate both numerically and ideologically, just as the Alliance did. Hopefully this race starts soon.

[DL]

The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

[RogueBeaver]

The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf

[adma]

MacKay and Moore, to name the most prominent. I meant that the NDP would dominate both numerically and ideologically, just as the Alliance did. Hopefully this race starts soon.

Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC.  He's now "red" by default (and perhaps as a reflection of his own younger generation).

But back to the unite-the-left subject--I think the first time that came to be voiced as an "issue" was in the aftermath of 1988's "Free Trade Election", where more Canadians voted for an anti-Free Trade party than pro.  But prior to then, "uniting the left" was redundant--and indeed, in those federal/provincial jurisdictions where the Liberals went into thorough eclipse, it was more often than not on behalf of uniting the right against the "socialist hordes"...

[Hatman]

The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf

I will have to live in ignorance. I took one look at who wrote that, and I was reminded of his gawdawful show on CTV Newsnet, and I closed the tab.

[RogueBeaver]

The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf

I will have to live in ignorance. I took one look at who wrote that, and I was reminded of his gawdawful show on CTV Newsnet, and I closed the tab.

1) open up the party to non-members (check), build a Manning Centre equivalent, realign economic policy (check), write a new policy manifesto (incomplete).

2) Have an interim leader who gives the party a pulse (check) and keeps them relevant both in Parliament and the national dialogue (check).

3) Recommending a Trudeau/Brison permanent leadership team without mentioning their (or anyone else's) name.

[Hatman]

What's the Liberal equivalent of the Manning Institute? The NDP has the Broadbent institute, but it sucks so far.

[RogueBeaver]

What's the Liberal equivalent of the Manning Institute? The NDP has the Broadbent institute, but it sucks so far.

They don't have one ATM. Who would head such a thing anyways? Right now Brison's their wonk-in-residence, but he can't do all that by himself.

[Sibboleth]

Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC. 

Which, in a way, says everything.

[RogueBeaver]

Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC. 

Which, in a way, says everything.

There was one Blue PC, Scott Brison, but he's on Team Red.

[Smid]

James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

[RogueBeaver]

James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.

[DL]

James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.

Does Kenney still claim to be a virgin like he did not long after he was first elected?

[Hatman]

James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.

Does Kenney still claim to be a virgin like he did not long after he was first elected?

LOL - must be an asexual. Or well, you know...

[RogueBeaver]

Crawley told Rae that he must make a decision before June.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/john-ivison-thomas-mulcairs-sure-footed-start-could-be-made-moot-by-by-oil-sands-comments/

[RogueBeaver]

I'll believe that when I see it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1157912--bob-rae-not-running-for-leader-of-liberal-party