Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Last I checked, that's precisely how Brison is realigning their platform. Garneau and McGuinty would be godawful candidates- the only alternative to Rae is Kennedy.

http://www.canada.com/news/Tandt%2Baside%2Bremains%2Buphill%2Bclimb%2BLiberals/6428191/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

They don't need a saviour, they need someone without baggage who has both experience and a strategy. Gerard Kennedy.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1159803--hebert-liberals-looking-for-a-saviour-and-a-miracle

[Senator MaxQue]

Without baggage?
It's because of him than Dion became leader!

[RogueBeaver]

Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

[Sibboleth]

If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.

[RogueBeaver]

If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.

Did he kick your dog or something? :puzzled:

[Sibboleth]

If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.

Did he kick your dog or something? :puzzled:

A misunderstanding, I think. The comment is disparaging, but not motivated by hate.

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so if not Kennedy or Rae, then who of those who have not explicitly ruled out a run?

Coderre: NO.

Martha Hall Findlay: Inexperience plus "who?" to all those who didn't watch the '06 convention. Lost her seat.

Garneau: Age, not really leadership material IMO.

Mark Holland: Who? Plus he lost his seat.

LeBlanc: Harper and Mulcair would love that.

David McGuinty: No explanation required.

[adma]

Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

Well, not only no seat, but *lost* seat, to boot.  And to Peggy Nash, to boot.

I think his handicap is that he comes across as a bit of an insipid "NDP lite" pretty boy--which isn't great in an age of the NDP being stronger, nor is it great if the Grits want to assemble anything like the grand electoral coalitions of old--which, sad to say, also involves repatriating some erstwhile Grit vote from the Tories.  (Which also helps explain why Dalton McGuinty defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership a decade and a half ago.)

[RogueBeaver]

Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

Well, not only no seat, but *lost* seat, to boot.  And to Peggy Nash, to boot.

I think his handicap is that he comes across as a bit of an insipid "NDP lite" pretty boy--which isn't great in an age of the NDP being stronger, nor is it great if the Grits want to assemble anything like the grand electoral coalitions of old--which, sad to say, also involves repatriating some erstwhile Grit vote from the Tories.  (Which also helps explain why Dalton McGuinty defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership a decade and a half ago.)

Is it really his (or anyone else's) fault that he went under though? A few Liberals (Holland, Mendes, etc.) won their advance poll but lost their seat when the Dippers surged post-debate. I also highly doubt he would interfere with Brison's command of their policy shop, which is definitely not Dipper-lite.

[Senator MaxQue]

Well, doesn't Bob Rae the least worst of their choice?

[RogueBeaver]

What happens when Ontario gets reminded of his premiership?

Hence Kennedy.

[Senator MaxQue]

But Kennedy is totally unknown out of Ontario and he has no seat.

[adma]

Is it really his (or anyone else's) fault that he went under though? A few Liberals (Holland, Mendes, etc.) won their advance poll but lost their seat when the Dippers surged post-debate. I also highly doubt he would interfere with Brison's command of their policy shop, which is definitely not Dipper-lite.

As for the "advance poll" thing: even in the combined "600s" and Special Voting Rules, Kennedy got 3200 to Nash's 3600.

And as for the Kennedy vs Brison thing: that *could* wind up fatally schizophrenic, a la "Red Tory" leaders in Ontario running on hard-right platforms a la Larry Grossman and John Tory...

[RogueBeaver]

It wouldn't be "vs." so much as "and", but we might have to ATD on that point.

Name recognition: Party members and "supporters" will be voting, not the general voting public. Besides, Ontario is where the work needs to be done.

[RogueBeaver]

Rules will be set this weekend. 9 months with LeBland as interim? That would be almost as bad as 9 months of Turmel was for the Dippers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/20/pol-liberal-leadership-meet.html

[adma]

Honestly, I don't think LeBlanc would be *that* fatal as either interrim or permanent leader.  Indeed, his apparent "blandness" might be a blessing in disguise.

OTOH, blowing a horn for Gerard Kennedy as a "Grits' only hope" at this point is like blowing a horn for Myspace as the be-all and end-all of social media at this point.

[RogueBeaver]

It isn't so much blandness as wimpiness and being a complete tool of the Chretien gang.

Kennedy: Is there anyone better ATM? He can't win against Rae of course, but someone needs to make a strong stance. If by some miracle Rae doesn't run Kennedy's the frontrunner.

[adma]

Though keep in mind that the apparent blandest, wimpiest Liberal tool in the running defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership in Ontario--and look at Dalton McGuinty now. 

Perhaps it helps that when push comes to shove, McGuinty turned out to be less bland and wimpy than Kennedy would have been.  Or at least more of a salt-of-the-earth electable-in-the-heartland bland & wimpy, as opposed to Kennedy's vapid "Trudeau Lite" cast.

IOW, it's all about the gravitas, baby--sure, maybe Dom LeBlanc's no Dalton McBates; but notwithstanding Shawinigate and all of that, if one considers where the Liberals were electable or competitive during Chretien's leadership, maybe being a toady of that gang ain't so bad in the end...

[RogueBeaver]

Forgive me if I don't think McGuinty's the best model when it comes to either policy or politics. I'll give Dad credit for being a survivor, but he and everyone else knows that his last two terms have had more to do with PC self-nuking than anything else.

I don't see LeBlanc connecting with ordinary voters either. He's a great paper candidate- a young, Atlantic, perfectly bilingual Ivy League Francophone with lots of experience. In practice the story is very different. Shy, weak personality, completely unknown outside of NB and party circles. No Liberal I know has a particularly high opinion of him as leadership material. Do you really think he's a match for Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair in the Commons bear pit?

If he does become either interim or (heaven forbid from a Liberal POV) permanent, I'm predicting he will be overshadowed like Dion and to a degree Iggy were.

[adma]

Well, at this point, Gerard Kennedy's no solution, either--yeah, he might have been in 2006; but in the aftermath of Jackmania reconfiguring everything (and I'm not just talking about Kennedy's personal defeat), if GK is all the Liberals can muster up as a "commanding leadership presence", then they're truly destined for the vapid-bunch-of-twerp-land of infinite third-place oblivion.  As "saviours" go, he'd be more like the Stockwell Day of the centre-left in practice.

In which case, maybe LeBlanc may actually benefit from low expectations--and, perhaps, as a leader better able to "manage" third-party status: more of a Charles Kennedy than Nick Clegg figure IOW...

[RogueBeaver]

I thought the goal was to reclaim OO, but that looks quite unlikely with Mulcair at the helm. Though who knows- the present alignment was only formed in the campaign's final 10 days. We'll probably have to agree to disagree on Kennedy and leave that there.

Those who haven't said no...

Coderre: No. Just no.

Garneau: Francophone Dryden.

Hall Findlay: Too inexperienced, lost seat.

David McGuinty: Last name.

[RogueBeaver]

Yet another step. The rules will hopefully be set in June.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/22/pol-liberals-board-meeting.html

[DL]

Sounds like the Liberals had a meeting to decide to have a meeting at which time they will meet on rules for a later meeting of the party to eventually decide on a leader....

did i miss anything?

[RogueBeaver]

Bob Rae to resign at the end of June- confirming what we've known for a year. Only a non-denial in response.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/30/bob-rae-likely-to-to-resign-from-interim-gig-to-run-for-liberal-party-leadership/

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/30/bob-rae-resignation-interim-post_n_1465925.html