Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[MaxQue]

Apart from an Orange Massacre in Quebec, no idea how those numbers crunch.

Which would be awful becauce Trudeau seems very incompetent. He has no business being there and wouldn't be if he wasn't the son of his father.

[adma]

Which would be awful becauce Trudeau seems very incompetent. He has no business being there and wouldn't be if he wasn't the son of his father.

You make Justin Trudeau sound like the Rob Ford of the federal Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

The FR poll seems to suggest a 10 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in Quebec if Trudeau was leader.

[RogueBeaver]

The FR poll seems to suggest a 10 point swing from the NDP to the Liberals in Quebec if Trudeau was leader.

There's also a swing from the Tories. Only safe ones are Bernier and Paradis, the others might go down. I think a fair amount of rural seats would be close Red-Orange battles.

[DL]

I have to say that one of the most useless things I ever see in polling are these "how would you vote if (insert name) was leader of such and such a party?". It's beyond hypothetical and more often than not means nothing if that person wins. According to hypothetical polls like this, if the BC Liberals picked Christy Clark as their new leader they were supposed to sweep the province! Today they are 30 points behi d and in danger of falling into third place.

In Quebec in particular people sometimes get briefly attracted to the latest bright, shiny bauble...a year ago it was Francois Legault...now he has crashed and burned. In fact when the PQ was floundering under Boisclair, polls showed they would do better with Marois, then she became leader and promptly tanked.

IF Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader he would have almost no where to go but down, he is not smart, makes major gaffes every time he opens his mouth and has no idea what he stands for. He inherited his brains from his mother. I'm not sure he would even withstand the scrutiny of a 9 month Liberal leadership contest let alone years as a third party leader. Any poll about JT right is essentially nothing more than a measure of name recognition.

[adma]

In fact when the PQ was floundering under Boisclair, polls showed they would do better with Marois, then she became leader and promptly tanked.

Well, they *did* do better.  Just not "better enough".  (And with an assist from the ADQ *really* tanking.)

[RogueBeaver]

Eh, screw this. I hope he runs and proves you all wrong

On a related note, LeBlanc/MHF/Garneau were on QP and all said they were seriously considering runs.


That said, you guys did bring to mind a lesson that all parties should keep in mind for 2015.

Policy only. Those who get bogged down in inside-baseball procedural stuff or personal attacks will pay an electoral price. Iggy ranted about things that voters perceived as inside baseball, stole the 2006 NDP platform and preached to the choir about how evil Stephen Harper is. Got plastered. The BQ took a cheap shot at Layton's French. Liberals tried to throw the massage parlour smear at him. Voters already decided they liked and trusted Layton and punished his opponents. So the "Trudeau is a charming, handsome airhead" (which even L. Gagnon, not one I'd think would go for personal guttersniping, used in February) meme will either replace or supplant the "EV0L HARPO" one.

This is where I give Tom Mulcair a lot of credit as LOTO. While I disagree with him on just about everything, he sticks to policy and leaves personality and procedure out of it. He didn't say "OMNIBUS IS EV0L AND SO IS HARPER." He disagreed with its contents and made a case for those policy positions. At the same time we stumbled on a solid line which could well demarcate 2015. Liberals and Tories in support of the oilsands (with varying enthusiasm), NDP talking about "Dutch Disease." Much better than the microtargeted tax credits and thematic touchy-feeliness that have been so dominant since at least '04.

[Smid]

Plugging it into the 2011 model?

Dont have one. I started my predictions after the election for the provincial races.

I've got one, and will plug in numbers. I'm fine, but not spectacular at maths, so my model isn't as detailed as Teddy's. In my opinion, that makes Teddy's better, although some might argue that the margin for error within a poll may produce larger variation than the difference between my model and Teddy's. I'll post a map and seat count later today.

Anyway, just to reiterate, I believe Teddy's model to be better than mine. 

One thing I did notice, however, about the Forum poll. Looking at the cross tabs of who would you vote for/who did you vote for in 2011, it seems they missed about a quarter of people who voted Conservative last election (the poll has 445 of 1482 voting Tory in 2011, which is 30%, however the Conservative vote at the last election was 39.63%). Indeed, this poll has the same proportion voting Tory as voted Tory in the election (30% now and 30% then).

I used that table of voter retention, and multiplied the party movement by last election results to see how it compares with the poll. Assuming, therefore, that the voter retention numbers are accurate, I ended up with the following results, which are still good for the Opposition, but not as incredible, and seem to be a bit more in line with recent polls having the NDP leading by only a couple of points. As I say, I'm not spectacular at maths, so it's possible that my methodology of weighting is wrong and someone could probably explain exactly that, but these are my numbers:

Conservative: 34.4% (as opposed to 30%).
Liberal: 20% (as opposed to 22%).
NDP: 36% (as opposed to 37%).
Green: 3.8% (as opposed to 5%).
Bloc: 5.5% (as opposed to 6% - possible rounding?).
Other: 0.5% (as opposed to 1% - possible rounding?).

[RogueBeaver]

Seat projections, seat projections. For the second half of that poll.

[Smid]

Seat projections, seat projections. For the second half of that poll.

Plugging in the percentages given of party support by region for the question of "If the Liberal Leader were Justin Trudeau..." my model gives the following results (I want to re-check some of this... in particular the Atlantic Canada and Quebec results...). The seat totals only add up to 305 because it doesn't estimate the three territories, since I don't think they get polled.

Conservative: 94 (-70)
Liberal: 82 (+48)
NDP: 125 (+23) (major beneficiary in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba/Saskatchewan and BC offsetting a loss of seats in Quebec, also a slight gain in Ontario).
Bloc: 3 (-1)
Greens: 1 (-)

By region, it would be:
Atlantic Canada:
Conservative: 1 (-13)
Liberal: 16 (+4)
NDP: 15 (+9)
Poll - (23%C, 31%L, 38%N, 5%G, 2%O)
Election - (37.87%C, 29.32%L, 29.52%N, 2.99%G)

Quebec:
Conservative: 5 (-)
Liberal: 20 (+13)
NDP: 47 (-12)
Bloc: 3 (-1)
Poll - (12%C, 30%L, 32%N, 4%G, 20%BQ, 2%O)
Election - (16.52%C, 14.16%L, 42.9%N, 2.11%G, 23.45%BQ)

Ontario:
Conservative: 42 (-31)
Liberal: 38 (+27)
NDP: 26 (+4)
Poll - (32%C, 33%L, 30%N, 3%G, 1%O)
Election - (44.43%C, 25.32%L, 25.62%N, 3.75%G)

Man/Sask:
Conservative: 12 (-12)
Liberal: 4 (+2)
NDP: 12 (+10)
Poll - (37%C, 19%L, 37%N, 4%G, 3%O)
Election - (54.86%C, 12.70%L, 28.94%N, 3.15%G)

Alberta:
Conservative: 27 (-)
NDP: 1 (-)
Poll - (62%C, 17%L, 13%N, 6%G, 2%O)
Election - (66.82%C, 9.26%L, 16.82%N, 5.23%G)

BC:
Conservative: 7 (-14)
Liberal: 4 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+12)
Greens: 1 (-)
Poll - (30%C, 21%L, 44%N, 6%G, 0%O)
Election - (45.57%C, 13.42%L, 32.53%N, 7.68%G)

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks for that. Now we just have to wait at least till late August, maybe later for any candidate to declare.

[Smid]

NDP is obviously doing well in BC due to the unpopular provincial government. Some of the results there - in the Fraser Valley in particular - seem a bit odd...

[Hatman 🍁]

that's one weird map

[RogueBeaver]

Martha Hall Findlay calls for the (long-overdue, IMO) termination of supply management. I could see her being the first entrant. The window is between the Olympics and that major Cabinet shuffle reportedly in the works.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/politicians-need-courage-to-dismantle-supply-management/article4359234/

I won't post the polls showing JT dominating the field and having a low-30s baseline in a hypothetical '15 matchup. They're at G&M or TS and even their authors admit that they're not terribly predictive.

[lilTommy]

Martha Hall Findlay calls for the (long-overdue, IMO) termination of supply management. I could see her being the first entrant. The window is between the Olympics and that major Cabinet shuffle reportedly in the works.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/politicians-need-courage-to-dismantle-supply-management/article4359234/

I won't post the polls showing JT dominating the field and having a low-30s baseline in a hypothetical '15 matchup. They're at G&M or TS and even their authors admit that they're not terribly predictive.

Yup, courage alright to support and allow the import of inferior quality US mIlk (mmm i like mine with extra hormones please); and with little to no guarantee of lower prices, infact NO proof of it (look at Australia). ANYWHO, thats my personal take, i support some form of Supply managemnet... but it is a unique platform to run on... just don't expect tow in back any seats in Eastern ON or rural PQ

[RogueBeaver]

Eh, let's disagree and leave it there. For now let's wait till Sunday and QP, maybe Craig Oliver will have more scoops for us.

[lilTommy]

Eh, let's disagree and leave it there. For now let's wait till Sunday and QP, maybe Craig Oliver will have more scoops for us.

Agreed.. or wait, disagreed? But i will give her credit for coming forward with a strongly distinctive policy to run on... still reading all the "polls" being done have mini-Trudeau in the lead of prospectives

[RogueBeaver]

Since Brison is their CPO I wouldn't expect a huge shift from the markers he wants laid down. Trudeau can run on his pro-sands, sustainable development energy plank. Garneau on what, science/tech?

[RogueBeaver]

Delacourt compiles a list of potentials.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1216283--a-long-long-list-of-liberals-are-dreaming-about-leadership-this-summer

LeBland: Only gets in if Trudeau doesn't. I like to think of LeBland as a moderate version of Ed Miliband, and it ain't a compliment.

Garneau: Seems to be leaning yes but could easily become this cycle's Dryden if not careful.

David McGuinty: Sounds like he's getting in.

Coderre: No, he wants to be mayor. And would be godawful too.

Brison: More valuable where he is and a guy who wants to eliminate CGT isn't getting elected Liberal leader. Highly unlikely he runs.

Goodale: Highly unlikely.

Kennedy: Like LeBland, he's only in if JT's out.

MHF: In no matter what.

[lilTommy]

Here are some names thrown about by the star... a lot more then have been mentioned here:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1216283--a-long-long-list-of-liberals-are-dreaming-about-leadership-this-summer

Pumping-up Marc Garneau:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/marc-garneau-could-have-the-right-stuff-for-liberal-leader/article4367583/

Is Justin really the best?:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/is-justin-trudeau-really-the-liberals-best-option/article4365181/

[RogueBeaver]

I already posted that list in my previous post.

Garneau: Age, he's also 63 like Rae. Plus nearly losing his own seat last year... WVM isn't exactly known as a swing seat.

Gagnon: She said the same thing in February. Bad case of JDS.

[DL]

I think Christy Clark of BC would be the perfect federal Liberal leader. She has all the necessary ingredients - she's perky, zany and bouncy and doesn't have any policy ideas and has good ties to the tories so she can attract disaffected Tory voters out west. What's not to like? The Liberals need a bouncy cheerleader to lead them out of the wilderness.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think Christy Clark of BC would be the perfect federal Liberal leader. She has all the necessary ingredients - she's perky, zany and bouncy and doesn't have any policy ideas and has good ties to the tories so she can attract disaffected Tory voters out west. What's not to like? The Liberals need a bouncy cheerleader to lead them out of the wilderness.

She's horrendously unpopular, right-wing and the BC Liberals aren't really like the federal Liberals at all, they're not even affliated.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Christy Clark of BC would be the perfect federal Liberal leader. She has all the necessary ingredients - she's perky, zany and bouncy and doesn't have any policy ideas and has good ties to the tories so she can attract disaffected Tory voters out west. What's not to like? The Liberals need a bouncy cheerleader to lead them out of the wilderness.

She's horrendously unpopular, right-wing and the BC Liberals aren't really like the federal Liberals at all, they're not even affliated.

He was being sarcastic.

Meanwhile no one has much clue as to who would form Team Trudeau were he to pull the trigger. I wouldn't expect any Hillside big names, at least not for the campaign part of it. We do have at least one report that a team is being assembled, but we'll have to wait at least another 2 months before any more concrete news emerges.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/06/25/time-to-gather-round/

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/04/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-can-dominate-attract-the-spotlight-but-can-he-lead-a-team/

[RogueBeaver]

Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/