Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[Smid]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

Would a similar comparison also be Vaughan, which may have seen the Liberal vote fall, but the voters swung to the Conservatives, rather than the NDP? If it's not similar, disregard, but if it is, perhaps low expectations for the Tories may allow the Liberals to hang onto the vote rather than seeing it go NDP?

[Smid]

It wouldn't surprise me if Nenshi is a Liberal. He is certainly quite Progressive.  I'd rather not know if he's a Liberal, because I like him, and I don't want to have a negative view of him. (I'd still support him though, since it's Calgary, and having even a Liberal mayor there is huge).

Actually, Nenshi's predecessor, Dave Bronconnier, was also a Liberal--as was (I think) his predecessor Al Duerr (and even Ralph Klein was Liberal-affiliated before he jumped to the PCs and the legislature).  For some reason, Calgary's mayoral profile quite profoundly contradicts its federal-provincial legislative profile.

No where else for Liberals to go, but municipal politics?

I think municipal politics are seen as less partisan, so conservative voters are willing to vote for good candidates with policies and ideas for improving the city, regardless of political persuasion. That's the impression I've got from some Albertan tories, anyway.

[Smid]

James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

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Plugging it into the 2011 model?

Dont have one. I started my predictions after the election for the provincial races.

I've got one, and will plug in numbers. I'm fine, but not spectacular at maths, so my model isn't as detailed as Teddy's. In my opinion, that makes Teddy's better, although some might argue that the margin for error within a poll may produce larger variation than the difference between my model and Teddy's. I'll post a map and seat count later today.

Anyway, just to reiterate, I believe Teddy's model to be better than mine. 

One thing I did notice, however, about the Forum poll. Looking at the cross tabs of who would you vote for/who did you vote for in 2011, it seems they missed about a quarter of people who voted Conservative last election (the poll has 445 of 1482 voting Tory in 2011, which is 30%, however the Conservative vote at the last election was 39.63%). Indeed, this poll has the same proportion voting Tory as voted Tory in the election (30% now and 30% then).

I used that table of voter retention, and multiplied the party movement by last election results to see how it compares with the poll. Assuming, therefore, that the voter retention numbers are accurate, I ended up with the following results, which are still good for the Opposition, but not as incredible, and seem to be a bit more in line with recent polls having the NDP leading by only a couple of points. As I say, I'm not spectacular at maths, so it's possible that my methodology of weighting is wrong and someone could probably explain exactly that, but these are my numbers:

Conservative: 34.4% (as opposed to 30%).
Liberal: 20% (as opposed to 22%).
NDP: 36% (as opposed to 37%).
Green: 3.8% (as opposed to 5%).
Bloc: 5.5% (as opposed to 6% - possible rounding?).
Other: 0.5% (as opposed to 1% - possible rounding?).

[Smid]

Seat projections, seat projections. For the second half of that poll.

Plugging in the percentages given of party support by region for the question of "If the Liberal Leader were Justin Trudeau..." my model gives the following results (I want to re-check some of this... in particular the Atlantic Canada and Quebec results...). The seat totals only add up to 305 because it doesn't estimate the three territories, since I don't think they get polled.

Conservative: 94 (-70)
Liberal: 82 (+48)
NDP: 125 (+23) (major beneficiary in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba/Saskatchewan and BC offsetting a loss of seats in Quebec, also a slight gain in Ontario).
Bloc: 3 (-1)
Greens: 1 (-)

By region, it would be:
Atlantic Canada:
Conservative: 1 (-13)
Liberal: 16 (+4)
NDP: 15 (+9)
Poll - (23%C, 31%L, 38%N, 5%G, 2%O)
Election - (37.87%C, 29.32%L, 29.52%N, 2.99%G)

Quebec:
Conservative: 5 (-)
Liberal: 20 (+13)
NDP: 47 (-12)
Bloc: 3 (-1)
Poll - (12%C, 30%L, 32%N, 4%G, 20%BQ, 2%O)
Election - (16.52%C, 14.16%L, 42.9%N, 2.11%G, 23.45%BQ)

Ontario:
Conservative: 42 (-31)
Liberal: 38 (+27)
NDP: 26 (+4)
Poll - (32%C, 33%L, 30%N, 3%G, 1%O)
Election - (44.43%C, 25.32%L, 25.62%N, 3.75%G)

Man/Sask:
Conservative: 12 (-12)
Liberal: 4 (+2)
NDP: 12 (+10)
Poll - (37%C, 19%L, 37%N, 4%G, 3%O)
Election - (54.86%C, 12.70%L, 28.94%N, 3.15%G)

Alberta:
Conservative: 27 (-)
NDP: 1 (-)
Poll - (62%C, 17%L, 13%N, 6%G, 2%O)
Election - (66.82%C, 9.26%L, 16.82%N, 5.23%G)

BC:
Conservative: 7 (-14)
Liberal: 4 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+12)
Greens: 1 (-)
Poll - (30%C, 21%L, 44%N, 6%G, 0%O)
Election - (45.57%C, 13.42%L, 32.53%N, 7.68%G)

[Smid]

NDP is obviously doing well in BC due to the unpopular provincial government. Some of the results there - in the Fraser Valley in particular - seem a bit odd...

[Smid]

Perhaps a Trudeau leadership won't be so bad - maybe the Tories could even agree to that.

So something like BC, provincially?

[Smid]

I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

So basically, the US Senate?

[Smid]

What it is telling than all those marginal candidates are trying to run?

Last chance to nominate for captain of the Titanic?

[Smid]

Brison took his time. Any idea what he was playing at?

[Smid]

Can anyone tell this uninformed Brit what's so great about Justin Trudeau?

As a Brit, you should understand royalty and someone being born into a role.

[Smid]

2013 Liberal Party of Canada Leadership Election - Leading Non-Trudeau Candidate



Not necessarily entirely relevant in all ridings... for example, in Nunavut, the two leading non-Trudeau candidates tied with two votes each...

Still, it gives an idea of some regional patterns. I didn't use "Runner Up" for the map for that reason, since this way it shows the regional strength of Murray in BC by highlighting ridings won and runner-up, whereas a purely runner up map would have had Trudeau breaking up that wall-to-wall green. I haven't shaded percentages, I hope no one minds.

[Smid]

JT got over 90% in all those Brampton ridings, I think. I'll check the results to make sure it isn't a mistake in my spreadsheet (I was a little surprised when making the map), but I think it's one of those "no one else got more than five votes" type of a second place.

Edit: JT "only" got 85.67335% in Brampton-Springdale. No error on the above map, though. My calculations are that the votes work out as:
Justin Trudeau - 299
Joyce Murray - 15
Martha Hall Findlay - 14
Martin Cauchon - 18
Deborah Coyne - 3
Karen McCrimmon - 0

In other words, very close for second place, and not sure why Cauchon did so well (in comparison to neighbouring ridings).

Neighbourhing ridings...
B-G-M (far more votes cast), JM 10, MHF 6, MC 6, DC 8, KM 6
BW (fewer votes than BGM, but more than BS), JM 15, MHF 16, MC 1, DC 1, KM 15