Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

I figured this might have an official thread. If the National Board's constitutional amendment passes next month, the convention will take place between November 1, 2012 and February 28, 2013. In the highly unlikely event said amendment fails, the convention will be held October 28-29 of this year. The date will be announced no sooner than 5 months in advance.

...

That said, let's take a look at potential candidates.

 
Scott Brison


 
MP since: 1997
Riding: Kings-Hants, NS
*Critic: Finance
Cabinet: Public Works (2004-6)
Age: 44
Party wing: Centre-right
 
Pros: policy wonk, excellent Commons performer, charismatic, cabinet experience, organizational skill.
 
Cons: PC past, poor 2006 showing.



Denis Coderre


MP since: 1997
Riding: Bourassa, QC
Frontbench: N/A
Cabinet: Immigration and Citizenship (2002-3), President of the Privy Council (2003-4), La Francophonie (2003-4)
Age: 47
Party wing: Centrist

Pros: Cabinet experience, organizational experience.
Cons: abrasive, temperamental, insubordinate, a failure as Quebec lieutenant.



 
Dominic LeBlanc
 
MP since: 2000
Riding: Beausejour, NB
Critic: Defence
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 44
Party wing: Centrist
 
Pros: excellent Commons performer, personable, experienced non-Quebec Francophone.
 
Cons: near-zero name recognition outside the Hillverse or NB.
 
 
David McGuinty
 
MP since: 2004
Riding: Ottawa South
Frontbench: House Leader
Cabinet: N/A   
Age: 51
Party wing: Centre-left
 
Pros: Experienced, high name recognition, bilingual.
 
Cons: An Ed Balls-type figure, plus he happens to be his brother’s brother.

For Quebec lieutenant (Rae all but confirmed Garneau will remain in that role despite his utter failure in it)...


Denis Coderre: as described.




Marc Garneau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Westmount-Ville-Marie, QC
Frontbench: Quebec lieutenant, Industry
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 63
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: Highly respected, bilingual, high name recognition.
Cons: has been a failure as Quebec lieutenant, failing to save seats that have been Liberal for generations, plus nearly losing his own seat. Age.



Justin Trudeau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Papineau, QC
Frontbench: Immigration, Youth
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 39
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: universal name recognition, telegenic, charismatic, prodigious fundraiser.
Cons: Insufficient policy depth.


* The Liberal frontbench for this Parliament has yet to be announced, and there are by my count 17 slots to fill, merge or abolish due to vacancies.

In alphabetical order:

Brison: The ideal candidate. His ideas on EI reform and European-style healthcare have been floating around for a decade, and only now are the pundits saying the Liberals should latch onto entitlement reform as a vision thing. Speaking as a Tory activist, I can say that he would be the most formidable. Knows how to connect with rural voters, might persuade them to stop demonizing hunters and drop support for the gun registry. Comfortable in his own skin, which is more than can be said for Harper.

Coderre: I doubt he would make a serious run for leader. The man is quite simply a thug and an incompetent one at that. Look no farther than the intraparty brawl over star candidates 2 years ago that nearly got him expelled from caucus for insubordination. Brings nothing to the table that I can think of.

LeBlanc: He is running and he wants it badly. Already there have been reports of his assembling a team assembled from ex-Martin operatives. His major problem is that he has no personality and no one knows who he is despite having been an MP for over a decade and serving in senior Shadow Cabinet positions. Outside the Hillverse and NB, a complete nonentity- I'd be surprised if non-junkies could pick him out of a lineup. Apparently he's a good Commons performer. Hardly anything on his YouTube channel or CPAC, so nothing to verify that with. Were he elected leader, he would be completely overshadowed by his two top lieutenants: Brison and Trudeau, who both have more charisma in their fingertips than he does in his entire body. Look at any picture of them together to see what I mean.

McGuinty: he's also a brawler, and happens to be his brother's brother. Almost as radioactive in Ontario as Rae is. High name ID, but that's all he has going for him IMO.


Quebec lieutenant:

Coderre: he's already failed at the job.

Garneau: ditto, and nearly lost his seat in the process.

Trudeau: give him the job. His current lack of policy depth (though on many issues his instincts are good IMO) is mostly irrelevant in what is a primarily organizational job. No one else has the star power to compete with Tom Mulcair, plus he has a good constituency organization going in Papineau that should serve as a model for how to work a riding properly- try applying that on the macro level. Needless to say that he can get them "fired up, ready to go" like no other Liberal in the country, plus get the donors to open their wallets. They could do a lot worse IMO.  In the next leadership cycle or 2 he'll be seasoned enough to grab the brass ring.

[RogueBeaver]

If anyone knows anything about LeBlanc beyond what I've mentioned, please let us know.

McGuinty: Forgot that he was more fiscally responsible than his brother.

Trudeau: I'm basing this on economic, not social issues. Obviously everyone on that list is a social progressive, including the uber-Martinite Scott Brison. His comments on the sands were pleasantly surprising. Hatred: so were Chretien and Dion, and they won more seats than what the Liberals currently have. Even in the event of a public repentance for torpeoding Meech, which is as likely as Harper streaking down Rideau Avenue in broad daylight, there would still be an underlying issue with most Francophones. Better someone who's hated but has the organizational and fundraising skills than someone who's hated slightly less but has conclusively proven their incompetence.

*I define economic centrism as what Chretien did in the '90s, just so that's clear.


Brison: now there are reports he's mulling it over. There has to be someone opposing LeBlanc who is not radioactive in Ontario. Another coronation would be hammering the final nail into their own coffin.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone who lost their seat can be safely eliminated. Especially since none of those races were particularly close. Kennedy and Dryden both lost previously safe seats by 15 points, while Hall Findlay is an unknown with no accomplishments in her brief tenure as an MP.

McKenna, Manley and McCallum are too old and have never been interested. Everyone realizes it has to be one of the 40-somethings, either Brison or LeBlanc.

[RogueBeaver]

Carolyn Bennett's bilingualism status is unknown (Hell, there are conflicting reports about Brison, but since he has a Francophone spouse I'm assuming he at least speaks conversational French) and she's never indicated an interest. Also too old. Solid in any senior portfolio though.

Quebec: not unless Coderre drinks enough of his own bathwater (far from impossible) and runs.

Can anyone think of a potential downside for LeBlanc besides being a complete unknown? How would he be portrayed in the media? Harper is the soulless, wonky robot and Layton the glad-handing everyman.

[RogueBeaver]

DL: Out of curiosity, are you from NB and/or have you met LeBlanc?

Here are a couple of the few clips I can find. Makes Harper look dynamic in comparison.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dL-qYPUCSU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR6yPJS8WUY

[RogueBeaver]

Were I a senior Liberal, I'd be starting a "Draft Brison" movement about now. Not a huge fan of a primary or dropping fees, but capital gains and effective use of youth are excellent ideas. Drop the gun-grabbing and adopt his old EI/healthcare ideas, and you've got a solid foundation. A Liberal leader who can challenge Harper on his own economic turf is not someone that should not be lightly discarded again.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/30/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved/

[RogueBeaver]

Coderre would have to run under the UM banner as Tremblay's heir if he wanted to run in 2013.


Bourassa by-election: European and African immigrants are still mostly Liberal, especially African immigrants. More class than ethnicity though, as was mentioned.


Dion: NDP would probably take that seat. The remaining Quebec Liberals won as de facto indies on a personal rather than a party vote, and without Dion that goes.

There are also rumours that Cotler might retire, which would turn MR blue. He lost the Jewish vote but won the Asian vote on a personal basis.

Orchard: You're joking right?

[RogueBeaver]

Updating this now that the Shadow Cabinet has been announced. LeBlanc's promotion to Foreign Affairs guarantees that at least in the Hillverse he will come off as a wimp against Baird. Still no sign of a potential challenger. If it comes down to LeBlanc v. McGuinty *shudders*... yeesh.

[RogueBeaver]

He's been Shermanesque on the issue and he wants to be the Blair, not the Kinnock. I'm hoping that Brison reconsiders myself.

[RogueBeaver]

Update: Tomorrow at 3 will be the teleconference vote on postponement to the previously mentioned dates. I still see no reason why it can't be held this December, since only one candidate is all but confirmed (the Strangler's tool) with another (McLiar's brother) quite likely.

[RogueBeaver]

It will probably be LeBlanc- a Mr. Vanilla if I ever saw one.

[RogueBeaver]

They just voted to delay the convention to between Nov. 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013, having listened into the phone convention. No links yet. I don't want to offend any Liberals here, so I'll restrict myself to saying that I think it was a horrible decision. Every leadership convention in our history, regardless of party, has been held within a year. The constitution forbids major structural adjustments by an interim leader- the sort of sensible reforms proposed by Scott Reid in this month's Policy Options. There are only three realistic choices for leader, all of whom are well known and/or have deep Rolodexes: Brison, LeBlanc and David McGuinty. IMO there should have been one in the spring or summer of next year.

[RogueBeaver]

Fixed, but 2013 is still far too late. The first reports of LeBlanc putting his team together were in the G&M within 3 weeks of the election for Chrissakes.

[RogueBeaver]

Bumping because someone has finally identified the problem and hinted they might run.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/canada/rogue-liberal-readies-leadership-bid-62194.html

[RogueBeaver]

Oh, no, not him. I'm not able to say his name.

By the way, your link is broken, you need to delate the ''http'' at the end.

Regardless, the Chretien tool Kodak will still win easily.

[RogueBeaver]

Till next time, but he's been clear on that for a while.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201110/13/01-4456743-justin-trudeau-ne-sera-pas-candidat-a-la-direction-du-plc.php

[RogueBeaver]

Dalton McGuinty rules out a run yet again, this time after his brother floated the idea. A rather staid race if the choices are between Kodak and David McGuinty.

Also, the new primary system will be adopted for both national leaders and individual ridings per Apps' roadmap. Could a Mod change the title to "... Election 2013 thread" perchance?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201111/26/01-4471963-le-premier-ministre-ontarien-nie-vouloir-se-presenter-a-la-tete-du-plc.php

[RogueBeaver]

It was always a choice among the currents. LeBlanc and McGuinty are all but certain to run, and most of the others you mentioned won't. Only Brison might change his mind, but I doubt he wants a third consecutive humiliation.

Brison: Best choice (as both leader and potential PM), but can't be nominated.

LeBlanc: Likely nominee, but he's a Chretien tool, unknown and a weak personality.

Trudeau: Till next time, when he has more experience and his kids are older.

Coderre: No, just no. Tremblay's running for a fourth term, so Coderre's locked out of the mayoralty that he apparently wants.

Garneau: No, just no. Too old and shouldn't even be in his lieutenancy position considering how badly he bungled it.

Rae: More Ontarian massacres? People were still telling NDP canvassers no because they remembered the man who hasn't been running their province for 16 years.

McGuinty: Decent choice, though he does have some baggage.

Goodale: Unilingualism, age, politically dated.

[RogueBeaver]

If it comes down to a LeBlanc-McGuinty race, then I think LeBlanc has a slight edge over McGuinty but with the potential for a McGuinty upset. There has to be another candidate but can't think of who that would be. Reason I give LeBlanc an edge is his support among the Chretien-centred establishment crowd and unlike McGuinty, would be a fresh face.

As for Rae running, Copps has said she'll repeal that rule if elected party president. However, I believe Rae when he said he's not running. He has an ego but is also very much a political realist these days.

[RogueBeaver]

What's wrong with Brison?

He doesn't seem to be that popular among the grassroots for some reason. What that reason is, I don't know.

[RogueBeaver]

Had Kennedy not gotten thumped by Nash he'd have also been a leading, perhaps the leading contender. But alas, he unfortunately did.

As for who's better between LeBlanc and McGuinty, meh. Flip a coin. Both are decent without too many negatives, and if Rae does the heavy lifting of internal reform with the grassroots then LeBland's Chretien cronyism won't matter as much.

Brison: PET was also a turncoat, and as for sexual orientation I don't believe that. Maybe in a progressive party which has a substantial rural base, like the NDP or the PQ, but not the urbanite LPC.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with miles: it's ideology that's Brison's handicap. TBH, I think ideologically he'd fit better on our side of the aisle. (and I for one would be happy to have him) Just 6 months ago he advocated axing the capital gains tax- something which we Tories heartily endorse, but I don't think many Liberals would.

Karygiannis: I don't recall seeing anything, anywhere, about him as a possibility.

LeBlanc: If he can get some personality and more importantly, some firmness, it would be helpful. Otherwise, I agree that an Atlantic perspective is certainly welcome.

[RogueBeaver]

If the Liberals ever want to win again they'll have to adopt Brison's policies.

Well, Rae did give him total authority over economic policy and everyone defers to him. They'll do anything for Brison but vote for him as leader.

Here's what he wrote on policy for the Post back in May.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/05/30/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved/

Rae publicly investing him with economic authority.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Liberals+need+more+than+talk/5685207/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Anyways, for now the field is confined to LeBlanc and McGuinty with LeBlanc the favorite. In the primaries I say BC is up for grabs, McGuinty sweeps the Prairies and Ontario, LeBlanc wins Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

[RogueBeaver]

Karygiannis: Has anyone mentioned him as leadership material? If so, 'twud be news to me.

Another good idea would be appointing regional lieutenants on the Quebec model for both Prairie and Atlantic provinces. Lamoureux can take the Prairies, Trudeau Quebec and perhaps John McKay (because Brison has his hands full) for Atlantic.