E: -3.81, S: -9.30
Although I take personal offense to Hillsborough being "Tampa Bay's County", I'll address this. Miami-Dade went D both times and with the present Democratic gains among the Cuban vote (Obama won Cubans on election day), as well as other Hispanics, blacks, and urban voters, Dade will be solidly Democratic for the foreseeable future. Hillsborough is another matter - it does have large conservative areas, particularly outside of Tampa proper. It helps the Dems that the last 3 candidates for governor have come from the county, and that the next will be from a neighboring county (probably). Both are pretty Democratic for the future - as for the regions as a whole, South Florida will continue to be good for the Dems, while Hillsborough-Pinellas, occasionally joined by some other counties, will be the Democratic anchor in Tampa Bay, with the outer counties (Hernando, Citrus, Pasco, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota) being pretty Republican.