The Collapse of the Republican Party?

[JewCon]

I think the GOP is nearing total disaster.

[Liberté]

I still hold to re-alignment theory, and the next re-alignment due is probably going to be along their terms.

[Mehmentum]

Maybe, maybe not.  It depends on how strong the Tea Party remains within the Republican party. 

If they stick around, then yes, Republicans will be nearing total  disaster. 

[Lief 🗽]

I still hold to re-alignment theory, and the next re-alignment due is probably going to be along their terms.

How can there be two Republican re-alignments in a row?

[Liberté]

I still hold to re-alignment theory, and the next re-alignment due is probably going to be along their terms.

How can there be two Republican re-alignments in a row?

If you want a (really poor) analogy, Nixon is Cleveland and Reagan is Wilson - the former the last President who comes close to representing the Old Testament of the Party, the latter the prophet of the New.

[Stranger in a strange land]

A lot of people were saying that in early 2009. A lot of people were saying that about the Democrats in 2003-2006. They'll probably lose the next round of elections, and the Tea Party is rapidly becoming a liability, but the party isn't in danger of collapse.

[Paul Kemp]

A lot of people were saying that about the Democrats in 2003-2006.

I remember some posts here around that time saying just that. Of course they were mostly written off as they should have been.

[Liberté]

A lot of people were saying that in early 2009. A lot of people were saying that about the Democrats in 2003-2006. They'll probably lose the next round of elections, and the Tea Party is rapidly becoming a liability, but the party isn't in danger of collapse.

I don't think it'll come in 2012 unless there's a total collapse between now and then - in fact, I expect Obama to win by a margin at least as big as his last one.

[Ban my account ffs!]

They're not going to collapse... but they have certainly overreached.  Also, the whole angry conservative thing is wearing thin on independents.

At this point, I see a healthy win by Obama with some coattail effects.  I do not believe the Dems will re-take the house, though at this point it is in the realm of possibilities... especially if the GOP doesn't drop its plan to end medicare soon.  The 45-55 year old age group, which would be the first to get these inadequate vouchers, are also the largest population cohort in the nation... at least in voting totals.  You really shouldn't f**k with them.. and the Republicans have taken them to task.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is a stupid question. It was equally as stupid around 2007 or 2009, and questions about the collapse of the Democrats in 2005 and 2010 were also inane and stupid.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, we're still reeling from the collapses in 2006 and 2008. I wonder if we'll ever get back the House and more than 40 Senate seats.

[King]

Not to sound like opebo here, but the only way a major party could collapse (even the last major party collapse, The Whigs, fell this way) is if the elites of the party give up on it.  They are the major financial foundation of any operation as they, unlike grassroots supporters, continue their donations outside of the campaign season and help cover the debts during off years. I believe the top donors are perfectly fine with the state of the Republican and Democratic parties.

Now, it certainly could be possible to have seen a collapse with this whole Tea Party business, but two things would have to happen:

(1) The Tea Party would have to organize in Congress.  Right now, there is a Tea Party Caucus with 60 members or so, but I have yet to see a major bill where they voted in uniform against Boehner.  In order to be taken seriously in organization, they are going to have to be politically mischievous--go to Pelosi not Boehner, find an issue (even a small issue) that they agree with the Democrats with but mainstream Republicans aren't interested in, pass/fail something Dems+Tea, and let the media know about it.  This could be anything.  The Patriot Act would have been perfect, but sadly it went by the wayside.  By doing this, it would show that this is a brokered House not a Republican House and that the Tea Party Caucus deserves contributions and attention from the lobbyists.

(2) At the campaign level, the RNC would simply have to continue pumping itself with weak leadership like Michael Steele, et al. while Tea Party PACs show that they actually can distribute money better than the Republican Party.   Simple as that.

If these two things happen, the big money goes to the Tea Party as a real force and the Republicans teeter on the brink.  Lucky for everyone, the Tea Party Caucus is a vain, disorganized tumor that would never be smart enough to do #1 while the GOP is too smart to let RNC stick with bad leadership for long at #2.

[Associate Justice PiT]

A lot of people were saying that in early 2009. A lot of people were saying that about the Democrats in 2003-2006. They'll probably lose the next round of elections, and the Tea Party is rapidly becoming a liability, but the party isn't in danger of collapse.

     This. Either party collapsing is essentially impossible at this point as they are the only feasible opposition to each other. The GOP will get thrashed soon & adapt to changing circumstances. Then the Dems will get thrashed at some point & the GOP will be back in power.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

A lot of people were saying that in early 2009. A lot of people were saying that about the Democrats in 2003-2006. They'll probably lose the next round of elections, and the Tea Party is rapidly becoming a liability, but the party isn't in danger of collapse.

     This. Either party collapsing is essentially impossible at this point as they are the only feasible opposition to each other. The GOP will get thrashed soon & adapt to changing circumstances. Then the Dems will get thrashed at some point & the GOP will be back in power.

This (again).  Unless one of the two parties suddenly turn into totalitarian douchebags who establish a fascist America that is toppled, they're staying for a long time.  The only other circumstance a collapse could happen is a major exodus of members from one party to another, but again, they would have to screw up royally for that to happen.

We're in our usual cycle right now, it's the closest thing to party stability we have.

[opebo]

Wishful thinking, perhaps, but the new poverty would seem to militate towards rationality in the impoverished populace.  However a large number of them still support suicidal neo-liberalism against all sense.

I would say no, the poor-killers will stay strong.

[minionofmidas]

One can always dream...

Nah, seriously. What would it even achieve?

[opebo]

One can always dream...

Nah, seriously. What would it even achieve?

Precisely.  Hope for progress is a mental disorder. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I think the GOP is nearing total disaster.

Are you a Republican version of the ModerateDemocrat1990?

[Landslide Lyndon]

According to the 40-year cycle, we are entering a period of Democratic dominance where the Republicans will become the minority party. And unless they change their attitude towards minorities, the Republicans will become much more irrelevant than Democrats were during the 1968-2008 period.

But a total collapse isn't possible. If they survived the Great Depression and New Deal then I can't imagine what could possibly sink them lower.

[DrScholl]

It's not sustainable as one party, you've got the ultra-conservatives wanting too much control. What will happen is that the Tea Party will split into it's own party which will be competitive mostly below the Mason-Dixon line and the Republican Party will go the route of the British Conservative Party, diverse and center-right.

[angus]

I think the GOP is nearing total disaster.

Totally.

Just kidding.  Seems that the left is moving left and the right is moving left as well, which suggests a breakaway by Libertarians or Tea Party people on the right.  But this would bring centrists into the GOP and the net effect would be a slightly smaller Republican Party and a slightly smaller Democrat Party and a very small Liberal Right party.

I don't know.  I've been hearing about third parties all my life.  They never materialize.  I think the GOP will remain weak for a while while it alienates non-natives, but it'll get its head out of its ass eventually.  It's all cyclic.  During wars, the Republicans are in the ascendancy.  During economic crises, the Democrats are in the ascendancy.  At the moment, our wars are winding down, but our depression is only a few years old.  So the circumstances favor a protracted period of GOP weakness.  Not a collapse.

[Phony Moderate]

Democrat Party

We are not discussing the politics of Thailand.

[freepcrusher]

nope, political parties are like airline companies. They may file chapter 11 every now and then, but they will never cease to exist.

[tpfkaw]

Democrat Party

We are not discussing the politics of Thailand.

Makes perfect sense if we are discussing the politics of Massachusetts:

[Phony Moderate]

Democrat Party

We are not discussing the politics of Thailand.

Makes perfect sense if we are discussing the politics of Massachusetts:

lol