MN-PPP: Pawlenty leads primary

[Ben Romney]

Republican voters in Minnesota are warming up to Tim Pawlenty's Presidential bid and give him far more support than they do Michele Bachmann. Pawlenty leads the way in the state with 33% to 14% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, 10% for Herman Cain, 9% for Ron Paul, 4% for Newt Gingrich, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/pawlenty-strong-at-home.html

[Mr. Morden]

It's actually a caucus rather than a primary.  Though I'm not sure that makes any difference in terms of how PPP selects its sample.

Pawlenty 33%
Bachmann 14%
Palin 11%
Romney 11%
Cain 10%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 4%
Huntsman 2%

If Palin doesn't run, then it's:

Pawlenty 38%
Bachmann 19%
Romney 11%
Cain 10%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 5%
Huntsman 1%

Another poll in which Huntsman actually *loses* ground when you take Palin out.

favorability / unfavorability among GOP caucus voters:

Gingrich 35 / 41%
Palin 66 / 26%
Romney 45 / 37%
Bachmann 68 / 23%
Cain 32 / 22%
Pawlenty 76 / 15%

[Poundingtherock]

I have to think that Romney's favorable rating is better than 45/37 with a non-southern Republican electorate.

If not, Romney isn't going to last.

[Liberté]

Isn't that a relatively weak number for the former governor of the state? I understand some of these guys won't be there by the time Minnesota rolls around, but it's still pretty anemic-looking to me.

[King]

Another strong showing for Cain.  Obviously this caucus won't be competitive if Pawlenty and/or Bachmann are still in it by election day--and that's highly likely as I believe this one is in February.

Newt's ratings are so bad across the board that polling him is just a formality at this point.  He is not going to win anything.

[Poundingtherock]

But PPP doesn't ask for "caucus" voters.  They ask for "regular Republican voters."

[Tender Branson]

Map:

Red -> Romney
Green -> Pawlenty

[Lief 🗽]

But PPP doesn't ask for "caucus" voters.  They ask for "regular Republican voters."

They've said in the comments on their website that they think it's too early to screen the "regular Republican voters" as "likely caucus goers", so they're just polling it as if it were a primary for now.

[Poundingtherock]

Lief,

That makes a big difference though especially in a state like Iowa.  It probably doesn't change Minnesota that much but I think Vander Plaats would have won a caucus against Branstad.

[Lief 🗽]

Lief,

That makes a big difference though especially in a state like Iowa.  It probably doesn't change Minnesota that much but I think Vander Plaats would have won a caucus against Branstad.

Oh yeah, I agree with you, and it's probably while pollsters like Selzer who have a lot more experience with caucus-polling did better than the national pollsters in 2008. Just explaining why PPP hasn't been doing "caucus" polls.

[Gustaf]

Isn't that a relatively weak number for the former governor of the state? I understand some of these guys won't be there by the time Minnesota rolls around, but it's still pretty anemic-looking to me.

There are a lot of candidates though, that makes it hard to get a really high figure.