Which McCain states will the Obama campaign target?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Basically, where will Obama be going on the offense?

[Lief 🗽]

Georgia, Missouri, Arizona...

[tpfkaw]

It appears that they're putting the most effort into South Carolina (no) and Arizona (unlikely) right now.

[Frodo]

South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona. 

[Eraserhead]

Georgia, Missouri, Arizona...

Pretty much. Maybe throw in Montana and South Carolina if he is polling really well against whoever his opponent is in those states. Texas and the Dakotas could potentially be thrown in the mix if he somehow got a joke opponent (Palin, Cain, Gingrich... wow there are quite a few of them aren't there?).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and Arizona will be targeted no matter what. If Mitt is the nominee, Obama will look to make inroads among his weakest group, blue-collar workers. He likely will at least try to keep Romney on his toes in West Virginia and gain the Kerry voters he lost in 2008.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Arizona, Missouri and Georgia are the most obvious answers, but South Carolina and Montana could also be in the crosshairs. I'm not sure if AZ and GA have really moved left in the past 4 years if we look at the approval numbers though.

If the GOP nominates a Palin, Bachman type character, all those states becomes relatively easy pickups.

[anvi]

I just don't see it.  If Obama couldn't win the states in the dismal GOP year 2008, I can't see him taking them in in 2012, unless the GOP nominates a total loser and he wins them almost by default.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I just don't see it.  If Obama couldn't win the states in the dismal GOP year 2008, I can't see him taking them in in 2012, unless the GOP nominates a total loser and he wins them almost by default.

That would be why. I'm expecting the GOP to nominate a total loon this time around with the tea party in full force.

[Niemeyerite]

Against a Palin-esque candidate?? Est Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, South and North Dakota, Montana, Arizona, Alaska.

Against a Romney-esque candidate?? Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Arizona, Montana, and maybe the Dakotas.

Against Huntsman? Georgia and Montana.

[CatoMinor]

I doubt he'll do much in SC, the whole Boeing situation isn't gonna help him there.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri, Georgia, and Montana are obvious because they were close in 2008. Arizona looks closer than one would expect for a State that has a Favorite Son, so it is on the list -- if only because of the open Senate seat.

Open Senate seats will attract his attention.   

[Del Tachi]

None of them.

Obama will be on defense in 2012.  He be spending all his time and money trying to keep states like OH, VA, NC, FL, CO, PA, NV, and NH in his column.  This time, Obama doesn't have the luxury of campaigning in states he doesn't need in order to win.

 

[tmthforu94]

Assuming Romney is the nominee, the only McCain state I could possibly see Obama winning is Missouri.

[izixs]

Ye think he has no luxury? Sure he does, if he has the money and volunteers to do it with.

In the era of the billion dollar campaign, if you toss large fractions of that money at a few states you'll over saturate and pull a Meg Whitman with spending tons of cash for no change in the outcome (good or bad). But if you have the resources to nearly hit saturation points in most states then you're more likely to have at least a few good outcomes, even if the rest of the swing states flop. And in a close election, that might be all you need.

It kind of comes back to the 50 state strategy the dems used after 2004 because 2004 sucked. If you have the resources, you send people into all 50 states and you'll start winning where folks didn't expect you to.

That's how Obama got Indiana and NE-2 last time.

A candidate that honestly believes they have a winning message will not be hurt by brining it to more people. So yeah, Georgia should be on the target list.

[King]

I just don't see it.  If Obama couldn't win the states in the dismal GOP year 2008, I can't see him taking them in in 2012, unless the GOP nominates a total loser and he wins them almost by default.

I agree, except in the case of Arizona, which IMO would have voted for Obama had it not been McCain's home state though the immigration lawsuit may have changed that in 2012.

That being said, Obama's 2008 campaign was so wealthy that it had basecamps in all 50 states and ran national advertisements, including a 30 minute primetime infomercial.  He's targeting all of the above.

[Person Man]

Tier 2 defensive territories- NJ, WA, ME
Tier 1 defensive territories- MN,WI,MI,OR,PA
Pure toss-ups- States that Obama won but Gore or Kerry didn't
Tier 1 offensive territories- AZ, MT, MO, GA,
Tier 2 offensive territories- SC, WV, ND, SD
Tier 3 offensive territories- TX, TN, KY, KS, NE

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I just don't see it.  If Obama couldn't win the states in the dismal GOP year 2008, I can't see him taking them in in 2012, unless the GOP nominates a total loser and he wins them almost by default.

Candidates have different advantages/disadvantages when they're running as incumbents. Theoretically, Bush should have done worse in '04 since there was less of a Nader factor and he'd supposedly alienated a bunch of moderate voters.

[Person Man]

I, for one, was very surprised that bush got a clear majority of the vote. I was about to say that was a "landslide" despite the fact that it was one of if the closest reelections ever.

Before the Republican/9-11 palozzaa/Swift Boat trifecta, I was expecting a map like this-

and there were even signs that Bush was struggling in Colorado, Arizona and Arkansas.



and even on Election Night, I was expecting that Kerry would have taken what he did plus Ohio because he did alright in the debates and was doing well in Ohio polling...or at least that's what I remember. ...and I do remember him doing alright in New Mexico, but Bush crept back over him near the end.

I am thinking that Republicans may reasonably expect to simply win by restoring Bush's empire and after the debate, they will hold to hopes of just getting that extra state in either Colorado or Virginia to put them over. When election night comes,  they will find that they eventually win in Indiana and maybe even North Carolina, but  Georgia and Arizona won't be called  until Obama creeps up on them in the wee hours of the morning and they get called for him.




   

[Tender Branson]

GA, AZ and MO of course.

Probably SC and MT as well with a slight chance for MS.

But ask me again in a year.

[Jackson]

Tier 2 defensive territories- NJ, WA, ME

No national Republican can win in Washington regardless of how unpopular our governor is.

[Mehmentum]

Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana in that order. 

[opebo]

Tier 2 defensive territories- NJ, WA, ME
Tier 1 defensive territories- MN,WI,MI,OR,PA
Pure toss-ups- States that Obama won but Gore or Kerry didn't
Tier 1 offensive territories- AZ, MT, MO, GA,
Tier 2 offensive territories- SC, WV, ND, SD
Tier 3 offensive territories- TX, TN, KY, KS, NE

Ok, that's pretty good, though I would change several things.  But I have to point out that you've forgotten Colorado.  Surely it is more vulnerable than Oregon or Maine??

[Tender Branson]

Is the man in your signature related to Mike Naso ?

[opebo]

Is the man in your signature related to Mike Naso ?

Haha no he's apparentley one of Bin Laden's right-hand men. I just liked his impressive beard.