Which McCain states will the Obama campaign target?

[Gustaf]

Tier 2 defensive territories- NJ, WA, ME
Tier 1 defensive territories- MN,WI,MI,OR,PA
Pure toss-ups- States that Obama won but Gore or Kerry didn't
Tier 1 offensive territories- AZ, MT, MO, GA,
Tier 2 offensive territories- SC, WV, ND, SD
Tier 3 offensive territories- TX, TN, KY, KS, NE

Ok, that's pretty good, though I would change several things.  But I have to point out that you've forgotten Colorado.  Surely it is more vulnerable than Oregon or Maine??

Colorado would presumably fall under the category of states that Obama won but Gore or Kerry didn't. But that may be one of my famous literalistic interpretations I suppose.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tier 2 defensive territories- NJ, WA, ME
Tier 1 defensive territories- MN,WI,MI,OR,PA
Pure toss-ups- States that Obama won but Gore or Kerry didn't
Tier 1 offensive territories- AZ, MT, MO, GA,
Tier 2 offensive territories- SC, WV, ND, SD
Tier 3 offensive territories- TX, TN, KY, KS, NE

My view, based on those categories
T2: MN, ME, NJ, OR (I think WA is safe)
T1: WI, MI, PA
PTU: I'll agree with that
T1 O: MO, MT, GA
T2 O: AZ, SC, ND, SD

.... not worth looking any further beyond that unless the GOP cock-up spectacularly...

[TheGlobalizer]

I just don't see it.  If Obama couldn't win the states in the dismal GOP year 2008, I can't see him taking them in in 2012, unless the GOP nominates a total loser and he wins them almost by default.

This.  Obama will be on defense, unless the other team has no offense, in which case the conversation is functionally meaningless.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Will Obama really be on the offensive? Sure, one could say he will be because of the 2010 elections, but that was before the Paul Ryan/Kill Medicare debacle and what happened in NY-26. I know a lot can happen now and polls don't mean much this early on, but he's leading every single Republican. If he really is to be on the offensive, he'd be losing or at least close to some of them. I don't really buy that he'll be on the offensive, in which case, it'll give him opportunities to pick up a handful of states that he lost in 2008. I say Missouri, Montana, Georgia and Arizona are the best pickup opportunities he has. He'll obviously be devoting a lot of resources into the Big Three of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and I'll put Virginia in the leans Democratic category right now.

[Jackson]

Will Obama really be on the offensive? Sure, one could say he will be because of the 2010 elections, but that was before the Paul Ryan/Kill Medicare debacle and what happened in NY-26. I know a lot can happen now and polls don't mean much this early on, but he's leading every single Republican. If he really is to be on the offensive, he'd be losing or at least close to some of them. I don't really buy that he'll be on the offensive, in which case, it'll give him opportunities to pick up a handful of states that he lost in 2008. I say Missouri, Montana, Georgia and Arizona are the best pickup opportunities he has. He'll obviously be devoting a lot of resources into the Big Three of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and I'll put Virginia in the leans Democratic category right now.

Defensive, not offensive

[mondale84]

I think these are the states that the Obama campaign is likely to target/spend the most resources in...obviously, I'm thinking as of right now, things can and will change as the time goes on...

[California8429]

Arizona, the Dakotas, Montana, South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia

[TheGlobalizer]

I think these are the states that the Obama campaign is likely to target/spend the most resources in...obviously, I'm thinking as of right now, things can and will change as the time goes on...

This map, though I'd add Michigan and drop South Carolina.

[Lief 🗽]

Don't really know why Obama would target Missouri but not Indiana, considering he won the latter and lost the former.

[TheGlobalizer]

Don't really know why Obama would target Missouri but not Indiana, considering he won the latter and lost the former.

Good point, if I'm Obama I probably keep spending in MO/IN nominal unless polling shows they're in play.  I doubt they will be.

[Lief 🗽]

Also, Missouri and potentially Indiana will have competitive Senate races where turnout in St. Louis/Lake + Indianapolis could help whether or not Obama wins the state.

[NHI]

My prediction of the map:

Against Romney, Huntsman, Bachmann:

R: 285
D: 253

Against Perry, Palin, Gingrich etc:

D: 385
R: 154

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

How is Bachmann as strong as Romney or Huntsman?

[pbrower2a]

Also, Missouri and potentially Indiana will have competitive Senate races where turnout in St. Louis/Lake + Indianapolis could help whether or not Obama wins the state.

So long as the Tea Baggers don't knock off Dick Lugar in the primary, Lugar is as safe as they get.  If the Tea party types do knock off Dick Lugar, then the US Senate seat from Indiana becomes competitive, but I wouldn't bet on that circumstance.

Missouri will have a competitive Senate race unless the GOP nominee melts down catastrophically.