NY-09, Special Election Thread
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Author Topic: NY-09, Special Election Thread  (Read 94345 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #175 on: September 04, 2011, 10:04:36 AM »

Also, you know, it's very possible to be raised going to Hebrew School, to be able to read Hebrew and understand the tenets of the Jewish faith, and then find there is no place for you in it. Just be glad you have never had to confront the issue of your own sexual orientation being in conflict with what your teachers said... And think twice before patting yourself on the back for not understanding this conflict.
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Guderian
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« Reply #176 on: September 04, 2011, 11:40:51 AM »
« Edited: September 04, 2011, 11:42:48 AM by Guderian »


Uh, this isn't the United Kingdom. Once again, a heavy hint to cut it out.

"You've been talking about the Queen again? On Independence Day?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xU5x4HmAvk
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #177 on: September 04, 2011, 12:41:40 PM »

So what they think is 100% irrelevant to anything.

Excuse me?  I'm Jewish, I don't keep Kosher or the Sabbath (fully, at least), and I damn well beg to differ.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #178 on: September 06, 2011, 01:28:24 PM »

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2011/09/06/new-york-9th-congressional-district-special-election-survey-9611/

Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District.  The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%.

The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). 



Probably too rosy, but it is what it is. If what is being said here is true, it will be his views on homosexual marriage that cost Weprin the seat.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #179 on: September 06, 2011, 02:31:48 PM »

lol, homosexual marriage
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #180 on: September 06, 2011, 02:47:14 PM »

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #181 on: September 06, 2011, 04:29:44 PM »

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

Obama got 55%.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #182 on: September 06, 2011, 04:31:21 PM »

Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.
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Progressive
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« Reply #183 on: September 06, 2011, 04:36:58 PM »

As I've said before...I really think this one could fall out of Weprin's hands. Weprin made a huge mistake by not attending the debate. Bob Turner seems to want it more than Weprin does.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #184 on: September 06, 2011, 04:37:36 PM »

Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).
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Verily
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« Reply #185 on: September 06, 2011, 05:55:29 PM »

Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).

No one other than the Orthodox care what Dov Hikind thinks. I doubt his endorsement has any real impact other than to indicate which way the Orthodox vote was going (which we already knew, and the Orthodox vote in this district was around 90% McCain in 2008 anyway).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #186 on: September 06, 2011, 06:16:19 PM »

Magellan thinks black voters are going 40-39 for Turner. That... seems unlikely.
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cinyc
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« Reply #187 on: September 06, 2011, 07:34:48 PM »

Magellan thinks black voters are going 40-39 for Turner. That... seems unlikely.

Because the poll was of over 2,000 voters, the African American sample size wasn't as small as usual for these polls, either - 115 - in a district that is only 5% black.   That would theoretically put the MoE in the 9-10 point range, though I doubt the subsample was properly weighted or as random as it should be if Turner is winning the black vote.

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

That's Obama's job approval number among likely voters, not registered voters or adults.  Figuring out which voters are likely to turn out for an off year special election is challenging.  If disgust at Obama is what will drive special election turnout, that number might not be far off.  But that's a big if.

Like much in this poll, Obama's 36% job approval number seems a bit off.  Those with no opinion on Obama's job approval were in double digits, which is a bit unusual for Presidential job approval question.  If you take out the undecideds, Obama's Magellan Strategies NY-09 job approval is at 41%, near Siena's NY-09 approval rating among those with an opinion - 46%.   But Siena's undecideds were only 3%, not 12.5%.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #188 on: September 06, 2011, 07:37:21 PM »

Magellan's polls are far from accurate. I think they've missed the mark more than once.
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J. J.
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« Reply #189 on: September 06, 2011, 08:27:58 PM »

Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).

No one other than the Orthodox care what Dov Hikind thinks. I doubt his endorsement has any real impact other than to indicate which way the Orthodox vote was going (which we already knew, and the Orthodox vote in this district was around 90% McCain in 2008 anyway).

It could help with turnout.  As a complete outsider, the Orthodox seem both cohesive and organized.  They could end up being a big chunk of the electorate.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #190 on: September 06, 2011, 08:37:30 PM »

Dov Hikind always almost always endorses Republicans; his endorsement would only be news if he endorsed the Democrat.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #191 on: September 06, 2011, 09:05:48 PM »

Magellan's polls are far from accurate. I think they've missed the mark more than once.

This was one of their Wisconsin polls.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2011/08/05/wisconsin-senate-district-18-recall-election-survey/
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NY Jew
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« Reply #192 on: September 07, 2011, 12:54:42 PM »

Dov Hikind always almost always endorses Republicans; his endorsement would only be news if he endorsed the Democrat.
he has endorsed Democrats (who represent values that his district opposes) which is why he did so badly last time.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #193 on: September 07, 2011, 01:55:06 PM »

Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)
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cinyc
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« Reply #194 on: September 07, 2011, 05:31:55 PM »

Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)

Answering "I don't know" to a question that most constituents couldn't answer isn't that big a deal except to insiders.  And a philosophical disagreement with raising taxes through cutting things that are not real loopholes isn't a gaffe.   

The so-called tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas are a feature of the dumb, overreaching way the US taxes overseas income, not a loophole in any traditional sense.  If anything, the way the US taxes foreign income needs to be reformed.  Not by enacting some simplistic, populist band aid that makes little economic sense and puts US companies with overseas operations at more of a competitive disadvantage than they already are, but in a well-thought out, complete fashion.  How to do so is above the pay grade of all but a handful of Congressmen, anyway.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #195 on: September 07, 2011, 06:17:54 PM »

Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)

Answering "I don't know" to a question that most constituents couldn't answer isn't that big a deal except to insiders.  And a philosophical disagreement with raising taxes through cutting things that are not real loopholes isn't a gaffe.   

The so-called tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas are a feature of the dumb, overreaching way the US taxes overseas income, not a loophole in any traditional sense.  If anything, the way the US taxes foreign income needs to be reformed.  Not by enacting some simplistic, populist band aid that makes little economic sense and puts US companies with overseas operations at more of a competitive disadvantage than they already are, but in a well-thought out, complete fashion.  How to do so is above the pay grade of all but a handful of Congressmen, anyway.

Remind me, which one of the Koch brothers you are?
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Torie
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« Reply #196 on: September 07, 2011, 11:03:28 PM »

US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #197 on: September 07, 2011, 11:19:07 PM »

US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

Yep. In the case of Microsoft, they would rather borrow money to pay dividends rather than repatriate cash.
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Meeker
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« Reply #198 on: September 08, 2011, 01:41:28 PM »

DCCC just purchased a nearly half-million dollar ad buy.
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cinyc
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« Reply #199 on: September 08, 2011, 02:19:47 PM »

US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

That that is a loophole instead of simply the function of the way the US tax system works and what that has to do with outsourcing in the first place, as it affects all US companies, even those who are increasing their US hiring.   

It's also rarely clear what exactly Democrats mean when they say "tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas".  One proposal was to disallow deductions for the costs of closing down US operations if jobs were shifted overseas as a result.  Another was to immediately tax income related to goods imported into the US from a factory outside the US after a trade or business is outsourced, instead of allowing deferral.  Neither is really a loophole in the conventional sense, and, arguably, would have caused US corporations to move their headquarters overseas.

A better solution to that problem would be to lower or eliminate the tax on repatriated profits, not hike taxes on US companies, making them less competitive than they already are.  Or to lower the corporate tax rate so it's not the highest in the industrialized world. Unlike the US, most developed countries don't tax corporations on their worldwide income.

DCCC just purchased a nearly half-million dollar ad buy.

Yeah, Weprin's ads are now showing up on the local NYC network affiliates, not just cable in Brooklyn and Queens.
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