NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Torie]

I projected on my spreadsheet assuming all the remaining precincts are the same size as those which came in, and the votes counted will be the same break as those already counted in Brooklyn and Queens respectively, and came up with this - an 8% to 9% margin for Turner. It dropped a bit because the Turner percentage margin in Brooklyn has dropped a bit. About 15% of the precincts are left to be counted.

37551   54.4%  Turner
31481   45.6%  Welprin
   
69032   8.8%  margin

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.

I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.

[NY Jew]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

this was won by Obama in the non Orthodox white areas (not enough to win even if Orthodox support was at 50% Weprin would have won 90% of the Orthodox vote if not for his social agenda)

[NY Jew]

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

Yes, this gay marriage thing was way overblown due to one of our posters who really cares about that issue. Sure it may have cost Welprin a couple of points. I think the Jews in NYC in this CD are more concerned about other Obama policies (think Middle East, Muslims, etc.), along with the economy like everyone else.

there is no way in the world Weprin would have lost the Orthodox vote (most likely would have gotten in the 90% range) much less get clobbered at what I heard from a reliable source went around 85% in some places (ED's).

[Wonkish1]

PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?

Look at the trend lines, the district got less Democratic, from D+14 to just D+5. It's always had more conservative Democrats on average, but a shift has occurred, much like many districts in the South have had.

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

[NY Jew]

if anyone was wondering the true reason why Koch endorse Turner it was to try and make sure this wasn't a public referendum on gay marriage (which it clearly was is certain parts of it (that brings in thousands of votes))

[Wonkish1]

pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.

I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that you were probably one of those people that said that or at least believed it for a while.

[Lunar]

Yup, and the Democrats are favored, it's a Democratic-leaning district and Republicans only have of handful of districts that Democratic throughout the country.

I'm just saying the Democrats can't treat this seat like it's a joke and nominate whomever.  I don't expect them to.  Hopefully that part is understood, so no need to make a bunch of "Lunar was wrong!" posts when the D's win this one

Special elections CAN be funky and surprising though, if recent history is any indication

I thought Weprin was going to win at the time he was chosen though, to be fair.

[DrScholl]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.

I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that you were probably one of those people that said that or at least believed it for a while.

No, actually.  I thought the Democrats were in a pretty good position for a few years, but they would lose at least a couple elections in the future.  It can't be that good for one party forever.

[Torie]

Is the Dem machine in these parts toothless? Just asking. Welprin seemed to think he could get a disproportionate Dem turnout in a low turnout election. Maybe he did, and that is why he didn't lose by 15%.    Or maybe it is BS. Any opinions?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Great job, Obama, keep up the good work. Toothless moderate heroism has done wonders for the Democratic brand.

[krazen1211]

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

Orly.

[krazen1211]

I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

I give you credit, sir. You called it a long time ago.

[NY Jew]

Did none of you read that article that Lunar posted that described how poorly Democrats did among Jews in Brooklyn in 2010? This kind of a shift was bound to happen here at some point, the national climate and a lackluster campaign just brought it to the forefront quicker.

Keep in my mind that I've been arguing on DKE that the defeats in NV-2 and NY-9 are largely due to Obama's unpopularity and the poor economy with attention being deflected away from entitlements.

have you ever spoken to the jews in Brooklyn this was solely due to the marriage vote. (many of the Israel voters (keep in mind many people don't see any difference between Turner and Weprin on that subject ) were to PC or afraid to say marriage redefinition but that's not what I heard when people heard the results)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

I give you credit, sir. You called it a long time ago.

Don't feed the trolls.

[Wonkish1]

See that is where your way off. This district is extremely different than a Southern district. Most Southern districts trended way to the right in the 90s. They are protestant Christian not orthodox Jewish with a handful of Catholic. They are surrounded by other conservatives and this district is surrounded by liberals. They are in low cost of living towns and this district is in a very expensive suburb of one of the largest cities in the world.

Historically, Dem politician after politician has been pretty crappy towards Israel yet the Jewish voters don't ditch. Historically Dem politician after politician have taken very socially liberal positions and yet Jewish voters don't ditch.

What made this the election where all of sudden those issues were the be all and end all when before Jews had an economy where they had the luxury to be exclusively focused on social issues. Now they have a bad economy and all of sudden gay marriage and Israel are extremely important? Something doesn't compute.

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and
B) Is the Jewish vote going to start coming close to even in at least the upcoming election?

Those are real questions and given the fact that elections like these are the only glimpses we are going to get into these questions before 12 then they are important in understanding the electorate that is shaping here.

[NY Jew]

PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?

The Orthodox Jewish political establishment (who were largely missing from this race) recommends everyone register democrat to have a say in local elections

[Wonkish1]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

[NY Jew]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

Orthodox Jews are probably the fastest growing natural demographic in the country.
9% of all jew in Miami were Orthodox in 2004
(Orthodox households are much larger so this lessens there numbers)

[NY Jew]

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

all from 2004 Miami Jewish Study
39.7% of Orthodox Jews have lived in Miami for more then 20 years, 60.4% for Conservative Jews, 69.8 for Reform Jews, 63.8 for Just Jewish.

Jewish Identification
number of people in Households
1 2 3 4 5 6+ 4+ Average 1 Sample Size Number of Households
                    1 person    2      3     4     5     6+    4+   Avg num                                         
Orthodox        26.0% 34.5 11.3  9.9  10.6 7.7 28.2% 2.8001
Conservative  32.1% 37.1 12.7 10.1 6.2  1.8  18.1% 2.2662
Reform            32.3% 39.7 11.5 11.0 4.1  1.4  16.5% 2.1967
Just Jewish     35.6% 38.4 12.8  8.1  4.5  0.6  13.2%  2.0972

                                    Orthodox Conservative Reform  just Jewish
Household with Children 34.9%          22.0%     20.7%   17.3%

under the age of 35
Orthodox     16.7%
Conservative 11.5%
Reform 8.2%
Just Jewish 11.4%
All 11.2%

[NY Jew]

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

first of all there are many Orthodox strongholds in queens
second there was a very strong anti Obama sentiment in this district (both Jewish (not just Orthodox) and Catholic neighborhoods) but it would never have materialized in to a win if Weprin would have a decent social record because then he wouldn't have drove his base in to Turner's hand.

[NY Jew]

Historically, Dem politician after politician has been pretty crappy towards Israel yet the Jewish voters don't ditch. Historically Dem politician after politician have taken very socially liberal positions and yet Jewish voters don't ditch.

1. Orthodox Jews (Russian Jews are also not but there in a category to themselves) are not like other Jews they have been swing voters for years (Orthodox Jews voted for Reagan, and Giuliani, and abandoned Solarz over social issues, it gets even more glaring in the past 10 years)

2. Obama is widely considered in all non liberal jewish circles (Orthodox, and Russians plus a little bit of the second generation immigrants still alive ) to be a big anti semite (I don't want to turn this into a discussion about Israel I don't think I'll get any father on that one then I did on the marriage issue just except it as the facts because even if their wrong they will vote that way)
3. The Orthodox Jewish community (though many times it has voted based on social issues) is furious over the passage of the marriage destruction bill and is now more willing to be one issue voters. (Weprin's extras on this issue really hurt him) (further more once Jews saw this race was winnable it ended a long standing tradition in certain circles of voting for the front-runner)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like we're stalled at 54% to 46%, with 88% reporting. G'night!

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for NY-09:

54.19% Turner (R)
45.24% Weprim (D)
  0.57% Others

I'm happy with that so far ...