NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Progressive]

Could any of the following people pose a formidable challenge to Weiner?

Former Assemblywoman and Councilwoman Melinda Katz?
Councilwoman Karen Koslowitz?
Assembly Andrew Hevesi?

Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge. I think Melinda Katz could do it.

[King]

No.

[Vasall des Midas]

Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge.

Well, yes - by Gary Ackerman. Merging the two seats is pretty much the rational thing to do once it's agreed that all the nonwhite seats need to stay.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

R+1!

[cinyc]

There won't be much of a NY-09 left after redistricting, so if Democrats draw the lines properly, Weiner's going to have to face off against a sitting Democratic Congressman largely on that other Congressman's turf.  My guess is he'll retire in anticipation of running for mayor, instead.

[Mr.Phips]

I think we can all agree that this is the downstate Dem seat that will likely be eliminated now. 

[Holmes]

Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

[Verily]

Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

[psychicpanda]

I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

[bgwah]

I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

Well it's probably not going to exist in 2012, so...

[So the Heroes Fall]

Obama's numbers are a bit of an underperformance too, there are a lot of older Jews and "ethnic" voters weren't too big on him. Kerry got 56%. Also it has some haredi who strongly supported McCain but mostly support Democrats on the local level.

[Progressive]

I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

I lived her for a long time in the Queens section. Because of a large elderly/socially conservative (religious) faction in some parts of NY-09, the presidency tends to be a 10 pt difference between Dem and GOP but virtually all other offices are vast-majority Dem.

[Lunar]

Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race

[muon2]

I think we can all agree that this is the downstate Dem seat that will likely be eliminated now. 

^^^

It does make the legislature's choice a lot easier politically.

[UpcomingYouthvoter]

Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

Why would crunchy-granola crowd hate Weiner now just because of his Twitter picture? They are not religious conservatives you know.

[cinyc]

I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race

...and then, there's Alec Baldwin for mayor.  Maybe.

[Verily]

Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

Why would crunchy-granola crowd hate Weiner now just because of his Twitter picture? They are not religious conservatives you know.

Middle-aged feminists are perhaps the group most disgusted by cheating in the country, much more so than religious conservatives. You are discounting the 40-year-old white liberal women who make up a very large percentage of the vote in places like Park Slope and the Upper West Side.

Obviously it's a fairly small segment of the population, but it's a group among whom he probably would have done reasonably well before but would not do well among now.

[King]

If Weiner does not return to the House, he should join CNN for the show WeinerSpitzer.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Weiner does not return to the House, he should join CNN for the show WeinerSpitzer.

[Progressive]

So yeah....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Has there been any other state to hold so many special elections in such short time?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

California has had eight since 2005: CA-05, 48, 50, 37, 12, 32, 10, and the pending 36.

[Jbrase]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/anthony-weiner-resigns-audience-cheers-13858250

Its time to change the title of this thread to NY-09 Special Election Thread

[Meeker]

People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

[Jbrase]

People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

lol, I am sure this seat will remain Democratic, albeit more competitive than under normal circumstances, but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.