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Author Topic: NY-09, Special Election Thread  (Read 36572 times)
Progressive
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« on: June 07, 2011, 10:38:55 am »
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Could any of the following people pose a formidable challenge to Weiner?

Former Assemblywoman and Councilwoman Melinda Katz?
Councilwoman Karen Koslowitz?
Assembly Andrew Hevesi?

Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge. I think Melinda Katz could do it.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2011, 06:54:56 pm by Progressive »Logged
King
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2011, 02:59:09 pm »
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No.
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2011, 03:05:41 pm »
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Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge.
Well, yes - by Gary Ackerman. Merging the two seats is pretty much the rational thing to do once it's agreed that all the nonwhite seats need to stay.
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2011, 03:51:01 pm »
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R+1!
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2011, 04:19:37 pm »
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There won't be much of a NY-09 left after redistricting, so if Democrats draw the lines properly, Weiner's going to have to face off against a sitting Democratic Congressman largely on that other Congressman's turf.  My guess is he'll retire in anticipation of running for mayor, instead.
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2011, 04:22:40 pm »
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I think we can all agree that this is the downstate Dem seat that will likely be eliminated now. 
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2011, 04:25:19 pm »
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Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.
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Verily
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2011, 04:58:55 pm »
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Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.
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JacobNC
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2011, 09:33:03 pm »
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I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2011, 09:35:25 pm »
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I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

Well it's probably not going to exist in 2012, so...
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2011, 10:03:53 pm »
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Obama's numbers are a bit of an underperformance too, there are a lot of older Jews and "ethnic" voters weren't too big on him. Kerry got 56%. Also it has some haredi who strongly supported McCain but mostly support Democrats on the local level.
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2011, 10:04:58 pm »
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I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

I lived her for a long time in the Queens section. Because of a large elderly/socially conservative (religious) faction in some parts of NY-09, the presidency tends to be a 10 pt difference between Dem and GOP but virtually all other offices are vast-majority Dem.
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2011, 11:34:14 pm »
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Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race
« Last Edit: June 07, 2011, 11:35:51 pm by Lunar »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2011, 06:14:23 am »
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I think we can all agree that this is the downstate Dem seat that will likely be eliminated now. 

^^^

It does make the legislature's choice a lot easier politically.
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« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2011, 03:21:36 pm »
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Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.


Why would crunchy-granola crowd hate Weiner now just because of his Twitter picture? They are not religious conservatives you know.
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« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2011, 04:07:55 pm »
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I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race

...and then, there's Alec Baldwin for mayor.  Maybe.
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Verily
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2011, 04:22:47 pm »
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Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.


Why would crunchy-granola crowd hate Weiner now just because of his Twitter picture? They are not religious conservatives you know.


Middle-aged feminists are perhaps the group most disgusted by cheating in the country, much more so than religious conservatives. You are discounting the 40-year-old white liberal women who make up a very large percentage of the vote in places like Park Slope and the Upper West Side.

Obviously it's a fairly small segment of the population, but it's a group among whom he probably would have done reasonably well before but would not do well among now.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 04:24:43 pm by Verily »Logged
King
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2011, 05:03:15 pm »
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If Weiner does not return to the House, he should join CNN for the show WeinerSpitzer.
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2011, 05:11:58 pm »
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If Weiner does not return to the House, he should join CNN for the show WeinerSpitzer.

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Progressive
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2011, 11:57:23 am »
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So yeah....
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2011, 12:13:58 pm »
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Has there been any other state to hold so many special elections in such short time?
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2011, 12:35:43 pm »
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California has had eight since 2005: CA-05, 48, 50, 37, 12, 32, 10, and the pending 36.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2011, 03:34:04 pm »
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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/anthony-weiner-resigns-audience-cheers-13858250

Its time to change the title of this thread to NY-09 Special Election Thread
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Meeker
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2011, 04:04:58 pm »
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People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2011, 04:14:18 pm »
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People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

lol, I am sure this seat will remain Democratic, albeit more competitive than under normal circumstances, but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.
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