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Author Topic: NY-09, Special Election Thread  (Read 39731 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #50 on: July 01, 2011, 09:53:24 pm »
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Perfect candidate.

WRONG!

I'm sorry to be blunt, but she did not perform well in NY-9 in her past elections (two decades ago), has made tons of foreign policy statements guaranteed to lose Orthodox voters, and doesn't live anywhere near the district now.

It's hard to imagine a worse choice Crowley could realistically make, electorally speaking.  He could pick like six or eight other candidates who would have a better chance at winning the seat but still wouldn't primary a sitting Congressional incumbent.

There's an Orthodox Jewish Assemblyman right there in the district (who voted for gay marriage but can still relate better to the Orthodox voters who I think occupy the majority of the swing voters in the district than any Republican), why not just go with him instead of some kind of big named candidate guaranteed to be controversial?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2011, 09:59:26 pm by Lunar »Logged

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« Reply #51 on: July 02, 2011, 12:47:00 am »
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I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.
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« Reply #52 on: July 02, 2011, 01:00:15 am »
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Perfect candidate.

WRONG!

I'm sorry to be blunt, but she did not perform well in NY-9 in her past elections (two decades ago), has made tons of foreign policy statements guaranteed to lose Orthodox voters, and doesn't live anywhere near the district now.

It's hard to imagine a worse choice Crowley could realistically make, electorally speaking.  He could pick like six or eight other candidates who would have a better chance at winning the seat but still wouldn't primary a sitting Congressional incumbent.

There's an Orthodox Jewish Assemblyman right there in the district (who voted for gay marriage but can still relate better to the Orthodox voters who I think occupy the majority of the swing voters in the district than any Republican), why not just go with him instead of some kind of big named candidate guaranteed to be controversial?

ok fine lunar you know more about new york politics than me no need to rub it in jerk

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« Reply #53 on: July 02, 2011, 01:16:42 am »
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Ah, the woman who beat Emanuel Celler. So she's still around.

Would be a good candidate in the sense that she wouldn't mind being a seatwarmer.

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama. As Johnny has noted, the GOP need someone who can run down the margins in Queens, and who do they have?
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« Reply #54 on: July 02, 2011, 05:52:58 am »
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Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.
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Lunar
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« Reply #55 on: July 02, 2011, 06:33:28 am »
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How about Ed Koch if we're just throwing around silly names
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« Reply #56 on: July 02, 2011, 06:35:46 am »
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I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes
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Lunar
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« Reply #57 on: July 02, 2011, 06:36:41 am »
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I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.

Yes, those two would be in my top three, I'd toss in David Weprin too
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« Reply #58 on: July 02, 2011, 06:39:56 am »
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How about Ed Koch if we're just throwing around silly names

Why ever not? He'd win without much bother (presumably) and then there would be no issue regarding redistricting as I'm sure that the legislature would regard carving his district up as more a pleasure than a duty.
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« Reply #59 on: July 02, 2011, 06:44:41 am »
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Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

It was held by 21pts in a dire year, something that normally indicates 'safe' - especially as Tony Penis never showed much sign of having a genuine personal vote.

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Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

Think you need to be more specific, oh Brooklyn expert (sorry; easy target). Not all Orthodox are Hasidism even if all Hasidism are Orthodox. Its the Hasids that have such wacky voting patterns, wherever they exist.
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« Reply #60 on: July 02, 2011, 07:26:48 am »
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I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

So all the Republicans need to do is nominate a Jewish billionaire who can spend as much as he wants and hope the Democrats nominate an underfunded black guy?
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« Reply #61 on: July 02, 2011, 07:34:20 am »
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I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

So all the Republicans need to do is nominate a Jewish billionaire who can spend as much as he wants and hope the Democrats nominate an underfunded black guy?

That's what they would need to do to win 70% in the district.  I assume that they'd be just as happy with 50.1% in the special election.
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« Reply #62 on: July 02, 2011, 07:38:13 am »
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Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

It was held by 21pts in a dire year, something that normally indicates 'safe' - especially as Tony Penis never showed much sign of having a genuine personal vote.

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Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

Think you need to be more specific, oh Brooklyn expert (sorry; easy target). Not all Orthodox are Hasidism even if all Hasidism are Orthodox. Its the Hasids that have such wacky voting patterns, wherever they exist.

Good points both.  On the first point, I think the Democrats will win, but that's partially because I expect Crowley to put up a solid candidate.

On the second, whoops, but Orthos are still a growing and swing constituency trending away from the Dems (along with the Russian Jews):
http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/wake_up_and_spell_the_kugel.html

(edit if that link doesn't work, try the cache here)
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« Reply #63 on: July 02, 2011, 09:53:44 am »
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I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

Why are we so obsessed with the Orthodox? There are virtually no Orthodox in this seat. The Orthodox in Boro Park live west of McDonald Ave, which is the western edge of this district. There's the small community in Kew Gardens Hills, but they're no more than a couple thousand votes.

The Republicans in this seat are Italians and Irish in places like Howard Beach, Middle Village and Marine Park, and Russians in Brighton Beach. Losing sight of that is a sure way for both the Democrats and the Republicans to screw up. Bloomberg did well in this seat because he dominated the South Asian, Filipino and Reform Jewish votes and did well with Hispanics, groups Obama won and Democrats typically win.
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Lunar
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« Reply #64 on: July 02, 2011, 10:16:02 am »
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I think you're wrong, there are Orthodox voters in Queens, Midwood, and they are expanding and growing in areas like Marine Park.
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« Reply #65 on: July 02, 2011, 10:27:40 am »
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More specifically: Sheepshead Bay, Forest Hills, Fresh Meadows, Kew Gardens, Rego Park all have Orthodox communities as well, and most of their Wikipedia pages even confirm this.

edit: Don't forget that the Soviet Jewish population in Sheepshead Bay, Brighton Beach, and Queens is turning away from the Democratic Party as well.

It's probably going to stay in Democratic hands, but that's because the Democrats will nominate a strong candidate
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« Reply #66 on: July 02, 2011, 11:54:49 am »
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There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park
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« Reply #67 on: July 02, 2011, 02:12:36 pm »
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There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park

Indeed, but they'll have reduced turnout for a special election relative to the district's Jewish voters, and those that do tirn out wont be as swingy in their voting characteristics
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« Reply #68 on: July 02, 2011, 03:34:17 pm »
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There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park

Indeed, but they'll have reduced turnout for a special election relative to the district's Jewish voters, and those that do tirn out wont be as swingy in their voting characteristics

Agreed; I hope that Joe Crowley chooses someone with mass appeal, that's why I think Melinda Katz i the best choice. I remember when she ran for Comptroller she got endorsed by Diaz Jr and a slew of others. Plus when I lived in the district she was my councilwoman so I'm biased Cheesy
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« Reply #69 on: July 03, 2011, 02:06:28 pm »
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I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

That's like saying every seat in Oklahoma is potentially competitive because Brad Henry won them all in 2006.

The point about Orthodox is exactly what I was saying. McCain already won them in the 90s, and Obama still carried the seat by 13 points despite being disliked by plenty of other voters in the district.
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Lunar
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« Reply #70 on: July 03, 2011, 04:43:07 pm »
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I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

That's like saying every seat in Oklahoma is potentially competitive because Brad Henry won them all in 2006.

No it's not like saying that at all -- it's more like arguing that the seat Brad Henry did the best in is potentially competitive.  This was Bloomberg's best district in the city.

The point about Orthodox is exactly what I was saying. McCain already won them in the 90s, and Obama still carried the seat by 13 points despite being disliked by plenty of other voters in the district.

Yup, and the Democrats are favored, it's a Democratic-leaning district and Republicans only have of handful of districts that Democratic throughout the country.

I'm just saying the Democrats can't treat this seat like it's a joke and nominate whomever.  I don't expect them to.  Hopefully that part is understood, so no need to make a bunch of "Lunar was wrong!" posts when the D's win this one Wink

Special elections CAN be funky and surprising though, if recent history is any indication
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« Reply #71 on: July 04, 2011, 08:43:34 am »
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I suppose if Bloomberg himself ran for the Republicans then the district might be in danger. As it is though... sorry to be like a stuck record, but the district was held by an incumbent who never seemed to be notably personally popular by over 20pts in a sh!t year for his party. The circumstances can't be helpful, but in order to lose the seat the Democrats would have to fyck up candidate selection big time. Its a safe seat.
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« Reply #72 on: July 04, 2011, 11:25:28 am »
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The one who lost 1980 Senate election with 1% to D'Amato?

Well, she'd probably win back then without Javits remaining in the race as Liberal nominee.
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« Reply #73 on: July 05, 2011, 12:13:32 am »
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I suppose if Bloomberg himself ran for the Republicans then the district might be in danger. As it is though...

I think it's a misunderstanding to assume that Bloomberg did well here because he's Bloomberg.  Bloomberg did well in the Upper West Side because he's Bloomberg, but not necessarily here.  

I think it has more to do with the Democrat, which is my entire point: the Democrats can't just nominate anybody here and expect to win by default.

The Democrats will likely select a candidate who will be at a huge advantage in the special election, but if they select someone like Holtzman, this seat will be in real danger.  I'd be surprised if they actually selected someone outside of the district like that though, Crowley is trying to make his machine NOT look out of order while the national spotlight is on it.

But, of course, sometimes even the most solidly favored special elections go awry (MA-Sen, NY-26, etcetc).  This is a weird district though since at its core it's like 20% Republican.
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« Reply #74 on: July 05, 2011, 12:19:20 am »
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Let me put my prediction in more simple terms, since I'm bobbing back and forth a bit: I expect the Democratic nominee to have ties or appeal to the Jewish social services organizations in the area like Agudah Israel
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