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Author Topic: NY-09, Special Election Thread  (Read 36113 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #100 on: July 13, 2011, 12:12:32 am »
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what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.

I mean, the seat isn't quite what it once was. Anthony Weiner lost his own former Brooklyn City Council District in 2010 when he ran for reelection.  Weiner almost even lost Brooklyn altogether against a candidate who only won 39% overall, so the district's clearly changed from what Weiner and Schumer held when they first got elected to the seat, and Ferraro's district is obviously different and contained no Brooklyn parts, if I recall correctly.

Weprin is more liberal than Anthony Weiner was, in some ways (he attacked his Assembly opponent in 2010 for flip flopping on gay marriage and cited his own Orthodox Jewish beliefs when backing gay marriage in 2011), but he's not going to generate YouTube clips. But Weiner was the frontrunner for the NYC Mayor's office, that's an awfully high bar to set.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2011, 12:14:04 am by Lunar »Logged

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Lunar
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« Reply #101 on: July 13, 2011, 12:17:00 am »
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Also: Who were the better choices? 

Melinda Katz is tied to the most controversial aspects of the Queens machine,  Eric Gioia didn't really represent much of the district (if any), and a Holtzman selection would have done more to help Bob Turner win than God himself intervening.
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« Reply #102 on: July 13, 2011, 12:36:42 am »
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Eric Gioia didn't really represent much of the district (if any)

I checked on maps and Gioia district come close of the border of NY-9 but doesn't enter it.
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« Reply #103 on: July 13, 2011, 10:05:15 pm »
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I find the Ed Koch maneuvering amusing. Is he lonely? He's moving from "Turner has to do this and this" to "I could endorse him anyways" after Turner does nothing to move closer to Koch
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« Reply #104 on: July 14, 2011, 12:20:28 am »
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I find the Ed Koch maneuvering amusing. Is he lonely?

Koch has a long memory, let's just say that. Some have suggested that his opposition to Weprin might be based off of that. Saul Weprin (David Weprin's father) was no friend, and was almost the only outer borough Jew to endorse Cuomo over Koch in the governor's race
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« Reply #105 on: July 14, 2011, 12:15:50 pm »
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Yes, I agree with Lunar on that regard. I know some people who were asked if they wanted to come in for interviews. They includes the runner-up for the 2009 city council primary in this district, to an Orthodox business-owner. I think that they could've won this seat with a better pick. Bob Turner won't win. I promise.
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« Reply #106 on: August 18, 2011, 05:56:00 pm »
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Republican City Councilman Peter Koo backs Weprin.
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Lunar
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« Reply #107 on: August 20, 2011, 08:58:18 pm »
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Guys, this has become a serious race. Even partisan Democrats I've talked to close to the Weprin campaign think that this could easily end up within 5%

I'd lean towards slightly above that for Weprin's final margin, but STILL, this election is 20something days away and deserves some love
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« Reply #108 on: August 20, 2011, 10:14:14 pm »
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Guys, this has become a serious race. Even partisan Democrats I've talked to close to the Weprin campaign think that this could easily end up within 5%.

Oy. What do they think the turnout is going to be? Why would the Dem be doing so poorly--is it because Weprin isn't taking the race seriously, as a placeholder, or because of macro issues?

This district won't exist after 2012 anyway and one additional Republican would be an embarrassment, but not actually affect the outcome of votes in Congress. Of course the PR value would be poor but does that really matter that much at this point in time, especially given the bizarre circumstances?
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Lunar
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« Reply #109 on: August 20, 2011, 10:42:37 pm »
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Oy. What do they think the turnout is going to be? Why would the Dem be doing so poorly--is it because Weprin isn't taking the race seriously, as a placeholder, or because of macro issues?

I think it has more to do with Turner running a professional campaign and disapproval of Obama than any flaws on Weprin's part


This district won't exist after 2012 anyway and one additional Republican would be an embarrassment, but not actually affect the outcome of votes in Congress. Of course the PR value would be poor but does that really matter that much at this point in time, especially given the bizarre circumstances?

You may be assuming too much -- if Turner wins, it will have an impact. The conventional wisdom is that there will be a deal to eliminate one Democratic district and one Republican one. If Turner wins and the district is eliminated, then a Democratic district will probably be eliminated Upstate instead of a Republican one.

And if Turner wins, the district's future is far more in doubt in general.
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« Reply #110 on: August 20, 2011, 10:44:44 pm »
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Kathy Hochul's district is R+6, this district is D+5, and that doesn't even represent the trendlines which had Obama improving compared to Kerry in NY-26 but declining in NY-9
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« Reply #111 on: August 20, 2011, 11:11:49 pm »
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Special elections are always strange.  Turner should never win here, but this district has so many weird voters, and with lower turnout, ugh.  I still don't see how he wins, but who knows.  You have to expect that the place will, without an incumbent, at minimum, start reverting to its PVI, so single digits makes sense.

Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

It's getting to be in NY congressional races - when the machine hand-picks someone, maybe you should always bet against them.  Tongue
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Lunar
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« Reply #112 on: August 20, 2011, 11:11:58 pm »
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I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza
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« Reply #113 on: August 20, 2011, 11:14:43 pm »
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Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

NY State Dems are plastering the district with fliers, DCCC issuing scathing anti-Turner press releases, I think that's about it.
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« Reply #114 on: August 21, 2011, 04:31:40 am »
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I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

Weprin was endorsed by Lieberman, so I guess he has his Zionist flank covered.
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« Reply #115 on: August 21, 2011, 07:50:15 am »
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Kathy Hochul's district is R+6, this district is D+5, and that doesn't even represent the trendlines which had Obama improving compared to Kerry in NY-26 but declining in NY-9

I'm not reading your implication here.
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« Reply #116 on: August 22, 2011, 07:02:42 am »
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Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech
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« Reply #117 on: August 22, 2011, 09:04:26 am »
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I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

Weprin was endorsed by Lieberman, so I guess he has his Zionist flank covered.

Wow, I don't even want to win this race anymore.
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« Reply #118 on: August 22, 2011, 09:20:14 am »
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I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

I used to live in NYC, it was very entertaining. (Especially because most of my family took it seriously).
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Lunar
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« Reply #119 on: August 23, 2011, 12:30:50 am »
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/nyregion/heckling-marks-election-forum-for-turner-and-weprin.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytmetro&seid=auto

I was there tonight, it was WILD for should have been a sleepy debate, the moderator constantly lost control of the crowd. Crowd constantly heckled both candidates, mostly Weprin, and then the Crowd constantly yelled to throw out the people heckling, although that never happened
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« Reply #120 on: September 01, 2011, 09:38:55 am »
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Charlie Gasperino tears Welprin a new one:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/queens/clueless_bond_pro_is_going_to_be_JoG9e5X3QURIC2MHV4BwCJ

The corrupt government is the bloated government. Politicians don't save the taxpayers money and pocket a taste of it for themselves. Politicians create giant honeypots, and, help themselves to a taste.
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« Reply #121 on: September 01, 2011, 10:23:53 am »
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/nyregion/heckling-marks-election-forum-for-turner-and-weprin.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytmetro&seid=auto

I was there tonight, it was WILD for should have been a sleepy debate, the moderator constantly lost control of the crowd. Crowd constantly heckled both candidates, mostly Weprin, and then the Crowd constantly yelled to throw out the people heckling, although that never happened

Shoulda told me.  I had an invite to the debate, but decided not to go.  I figured it would get out of control, though.
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« Reply #122 on: September 01, 2011, 07:56:57 pm »
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I actually think Turner might this one.
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« Reply #123 on: September 01, 2011, 08:42:43 pm »
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I heard that there is a poll out showing Weprin and Turner tied at 42% each. Any truth to this? Is it from a reputable pollster?
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« Reply #124 on: September 01, 2011, 08:46:41 pm »
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I heard that there is a poll out showing Weprin and Turner tied at 42% each. Any truth to this? Is it from a reputable pollster?

This pollster predicted a 52% Weiner, 48% Turner election last year. The actual margin was 60-40.
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