NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Vasall des Midas]

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=3403;sa=showPosts for a sample of the posts involved.

Why the socks?

(...)

The views expressed by Coburn, the imbecile, and KTC, the rather more intelligent sock, are accurate portrayals of the arguments, conversations and communications I still receive on a regular basis, from some of these folks.  I went to church with these people for many decades. I went to college with no small number of them.  More than a few members of my family could easily pass for KTC and, at least one, for Coburn.

[NY Jew]

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=3403;sa=showPosts for a sample of the posts involved.

Why the socks?

(...)

The views expressed by Coburn, the imbecile, and KTC, the rather more intelligent sock, are accurate portrayals of the arguments, conversations and communications I still receive on a regular basis, from some of these folks.  I went to church with these people for many decades. I went to college with no small number of them.  More than a few members of my family could easily pass for KTC and, at least one, for Coburn.

thank you

[Lunar]

A Democratic partisan just emailed me to say "Weprin's going down like a lesbian in love"

[krazen1211]

Dave Weigel

DEVELOPING: A confused David Weprin to spend rest of #NY09 campaign shaking hands outside Fenway, in the cold.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, Weprin is Coakley 2.0 on steroids:

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3282998/three-days-911-dccc-runs-bob-turner-rich-ad-showing-plane-buzzing-ma

[Keystone Phil]

Let's have a moment of silence in memory of the dick that made this special election possible.


Thank you.


In all seriousness, I'm still not sold that we'll win this.

[Vasall des Midas]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

[krazen1211]

Wow, Weprin is Coakley 2.0 on steroids:

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3282998/three-days-911-dccc-runs-bob-turner-rich-ad-showing-plane-buzzing-ma

Yes, this district is much more Democratic than Massachusetts as a whole is in terms of registration. 2008 Presidential results notwithstanding.

Weiner and Schumer used to get 70-80% here.

[Tender Branson]

Let's have a moment of silence in memory of the dick that made this special election possible.


Thank you.


In all seriousness, I'm still not sold that we'll win this.

I´m rather sold:

A) The Democratic incumbent had a sex scandal and has now sub-10% approvals.

B) The Democratic replacement candidate thinks the current debt is about 1/4 of what it really is.

C) The DCCC cuts an ad involving a plane flying above the Manhattan skyline on the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

D) Probably other retarded things I cannot recall now, because I have only decided to follow this race as of yesterday.

[Torie]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  The issue is what kind of Anglo seat would be naturally drawn in the area if done by someone non partisan holding the mouse?

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.

[Invisible Obama]

Obviously, it's getting cut not matter who wins it, it's all about what is easiest to remove.

[Vasall des Midas]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  

Not really. Depending how you draw it, you might get it to where it's becoming arguable that the 5th and not the 9th is gone, but that's about it.

And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  

No - if they do that, they still lose two of their guys, and all their remaining incumbents (and the Dems, of course. And the Dems) are less safe.

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.

No. You cannot draw a "normally" Republican district here. The votes just aren't there. You can theoretically draw one elsewhere that has some slight overlap, but only if you are ready to run major risks with the VRA with one of the Brooklyn Black seats.
Of course, maybe he can somehow build some kind of personal vote machine and stay in Congress for some time, especially should Ackerman retire, but then I'd have said that about Djou too.

Obviously, this still affects redistricting. R's now have much better arguments for demanding a D head upstate.

[krazen1211]

The 'draw the 9th in Brooklyn entirely' idea that wrangles Borough Park and other territory from the 8th creates a strong McCain district. That said it probably won't translate downballot quite as well anyway, and it creates problems with the Staten Island district.

[Lunar]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

[cinyc]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

But after Weiner had his tweetscandal, conventional wisdom was that whatever Democrat won the NY-09 special election would be out of a job come January 2013. 

If Turner wins, I think the redistricting calculations become more complicated, not less.  It's possible Turner and an Upstate Democrat's seat get axed (probably Hochul, but since she won a R+6 district, it's hard to see how it's even possible to make the seat more Republican).  Or Turner takes over more Republican-friendly territory in Brooklyn (it is possible without hurting the Staten Island seat, which is almost at ideal population in its current lines because Nadler's NY-08 juts into white parts of Brooklyn) and Ackerman loses his seat or faces off against Crowley while a Republican loses an Upstate seat.  If Turner wins, the redistricting fight should be interesting.

By the way, Weprin won't be able to vote for himself.  He doesn't live in NY-09.

[Tender Branson]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

But after Weiner had his tweetscandal, conventional wisdom was that whatever Democrat won the NY-09 special election would be out of a job come January 2013.  

If Turner wins, I think the redistricting calculations become more complicated, not less.  It's possible Turner and an Upstate Democrat's seat get axed (probably Hochul, but since she won a R+6 district, it's hard to see how it's even possible to make the seat more Republican).  Or Turner takes over more Republican-friendly territory in Brooklyn (it is possible without hurting the Staten Island seat, which is almost at ideal population in its current lines because Nadler's NY-08 juts into white parts of Brooklyn) and Ackerman loses his seat or faces off against Crowley while a Republican loses an Upstate seat.  If Turner wins, the redistricting fight should be interesting.

By the way, Weprin won't be able to vote for himself.  He doesn't live in NY-09.

If he doesn't live there, how can he run there ?

Aren't you required to live in the district that you are running in ?

[Lunar]

for federal office you only need to live in the state

Kathy Hochul didn't live in NY-26 either, but, like Weprin, she represented part of the district in elected office

[Sibboleth]

What a remarkably sh!tty candidate and what a remarkably sh!tty campaign. Are they actually trying to lose?

[Lunar]

What a remarkably sh!tty candidate and what a remarkably sh!tty campaign. Are they actually trying to lose?

more stuff on his campaign: http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9998757180/why-is-bob-turner-winning

[Sibboleth]

Weiner and Schumer used to get 70-80% here.

Not really true; it was (and still ought to be) a safe seat, but not to that extent. Weiner never got close to 80% in a contested election.

[NY Jew]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  The issue is what kind of Anglo seat would be naturally drawn in the area if done by someone non partisan holding the mouse?

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.

one that is ten times more Conservative then this one right now the reason the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

 that's due to orthodox Jewish populations strong social Conservative positions and strong Israel support has been in many elections voting Republican ever since at least the 80's (right now there are EDs that can flip 90% either way depending on numerous factors) (Borough Park had a Contiguous area with 50,00 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate (though they decided to put this area in to Nadler's seat to dilute the Jewish vote))

if you get rid of partisan redistricting and combine the Orthodox areas of Brooklyn and don't make any strange shapes moving the district in to northern Brooklyn but combine the orthodox jewish areas with the overwhelmingly Jewish Russian areas and catholic areas in Brooklyn, Rockways and Howard Beach this district rivals almost any other Conservative district in the country (though it might still go to a democrat like Hikind)

[Sibboleth]

isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?

Given that this district isn't majority English speaking, how can it be an Anglo seat?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

[Sibboleth]

Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.

I maintain that this was a fundamentally good idea.

[cinyc]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.