NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Progressive]

I created this thread in the hopes that we could all discuss Weprin v. Turner, not one religion v. other religion.

How 'bout some predictions?

[Sibboleth]

Argue about these things elsewhere please.

[Meeker]

Death points for J.J.!

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Argue about these things elsewhere please.

Someone made a thread in R&P but it was deleted soon after.

[J. J.]

I can understand NY Jew's point on the effect of Weprin's stand will turn off Orthodox Jewish voters, without agreeing with the underlying morality of it.  His view is probably representative of most Orthodox voters, which makes up a reasonable percentage of the electorate in this district.

Further, I'd expect it to energize the Orthodox Jewish electorate and I expect to turn out in higher numbers that the non Orthodox electorate.

The polling was showing Turner with a lead, and I'd expect it to hold.

(How, that for a prediction?)

[Former Moderate]

PPP is going to release their poll in about an hour.

[Sibboleth]

Just repeating an earlier post because... you know...

Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%

[Meeker]

PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.

[Keystone Phil]

I heard that he's "helping" him during the final push. If true, our thanks to you, sir.

[Sibboleth]

PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.

He's going to lose next year.

Alright, that might just be the insomnia and the tramadol talking. I admit that. Who knows.

[Invisible Obama]

I really hope Weprin pulls it out, just because I want to see Republicans get their faces crack and because I don't want to see them going on about New York trending heavily Republican and how even Palin could win in a landslide. Petty, but it's how I think.

[Keystone Phil]

Petty, but it's how I think.

Stupid but it's how you think.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

47-41 Turner, sez PPP.  (4% for the Socialist Workers Party candidate - huh?)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/republican-bob-turner-is-poised-to-pull-a-huge-upset-in-the-race-to-replace-anthony-weiner-as-the-congressman-from-new-yorks.html

[Meeker]

Same margin as Sienna.

[Sibboleth]

Not impossible to overcome given the usual issues with constituency/district/etc polling, I suppose. Looks pretty bleak regardless.

[Invisible Obama]

Petty, but it's how I think.

Stupid but it's how you think.

There you go with the name calling. Let's keep this thread on track, one person already threw it way off already.

To ignore you go.

[Keystone Phil]

To ignore you go.

Heartbreaking.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I kinda doubt the SWP guy will get 4%. Not that that will help Weprin. My guess for Tuesday is 52-47 Turner.

[J. J.]

NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Sigh...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0911/In_leaked_custody_filing_heedless_Weprin_dirty_politics_alleged.html?showall

I do have to scratch my head at this being leaked at the last minute. Surely a 25-year-old court case can't be that impressive a finishing blow. Of course, they did it to Phil Kellam in 2006 here in VA-02...

[nclib]

Has Turner even run as a moderate, or at least less right-wing than the overall GOP? It would be even more disappointing to lose this if he hasn't.

[Sam Spade]

I know where Al's coming from in both of his posts.  This type of deterioration among these types of voters would spell real trouble.

Israel appears to be an significant issue in the campaign.  Also appears same-sex marriage is an issue as well (though a good bit less). (awaits tirades from all sides)

If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

Anyway, we'll see in a couple of days.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I've always been of the opinion that we were in trouble here because of Obama rather than Weprin's weaknesses as a candidate and his local selection, this poll confirms that.  Weprin has never been unpopular in the polls.

I don't understand what Turner has done to receive those numbers though, he strikes me as an awful, awful candidate who should be garnering no support from swing voters (his stances on taxes, medicare and social security should not be playing well here). His attacks against Weprin using the Mosque and 9/11 while condemning the DCCC for using a plane in their ad show his campaign's character. if people eat that pile of fecal matter up, this country is doomed.

[Meeker]

I kinda doubt the SWP guy will get 4%. Not that that will help Weprin. My guess for Tuesday is 52-47 Turner.

Yup.

[Lunar]

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn’t show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That’s a really big cause for concern.