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Author Topic: NY-09, Special Election Thread  (Read 34647 times)
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« Reply #325 on: September 11, 2011, 05:47:12 pm »
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I created this thread in the hopes that we could all discuss Weprin v. Turner, not one religion v. other religion.

How 'bout some predictions?
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #326 on: September 11, 2011, 06:26:10 pm »
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Argue about these things elsewhere please.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #327 on: September 11, 2011, 06:26:49 pm »
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Death points for J.J.!
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Costco
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« Reply #328 on: September 11, 2011, 06:36:54 pm »
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Argue about these things elsewhere please.

Someone made a thread in R&P but it was deleted soon after.
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J. J.
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« Reply #329 on: September 11, 2011, 06:54:06 pm »
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I can understand NY Jew's point on the effect of Weprin's stand will turn off Orthodox Jewish voters, without agreeing with the underlying morality of it.  His view is probably representative of most Orthodox voters, which makes up a reasonable percentage of the electorate in this district.

Further, I'd expect it to energize the Orthodox Jewish electorate and I expect to turn out in higher numbers that the non Orthodox electorate.

The polling was showing Turner with a lead, and I'd expect it to hold.

(How, that for a prediction?)
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #330 on: September 11, 2011, 08:57:13 pm »
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PPP is going to release their poll in about an hour.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #331 on: September 11, 2011, 09:01:12 pm »
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Just repeating an earlier post because... you know...

Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #332 on: September 11, 2011, 09:41:40 pm »
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PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #333 on: September 11, 2011, 09:41:46 pm »
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I heard that he's "helping" him during the final push. If true, our thanks to you, sir.
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Grazie, Capitano!
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« Reply #334 on: September 11, 2011, 09:51:20 pm »
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PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.

He's going to lose next year.

Alright, that might just be the insomnia and the tramadol talking. I admit that. Who knows.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #335 on: September 11, 2011, 09:52:52 pm »
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I really hope Weprin pulls it out, just because I want to see Republicans get their faces crack and because I don't want to see them going on about New York trending heavily Republican and how even Palin could win in a landslide. Petty, but it's how I think.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #336 on: September 11, 2011, 09:54:22 pm »
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Petty, but it's how I think.

Stupid but it's how you think.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #337 on: September 11, 2011, 10:02:59 pm »
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47-41 Turner, sez PPP.  (4% for the Socialist Workers Party candidate - huh?)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/republican-bob-turner-is-poised-to-pull-a-huge-upset-in-the-race-to-replace-anthony-weiner-as-the-congressman-from-new-yorks.html
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Meeker
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« Reply #338 on: September 11, 2011, 10:03:28 pm »
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Same margin as Sienna.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #339 on: September 11, 2011, 10:04:28 pm »
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Not impossible to overcome given the usual issues with constituency/district/etc polling, I suppose. Looks pretty bleak regardless.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #340 on: September 11, 2011, 10:06:51 pm »
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Petty, but it's how I think.

Stupid but it's how you think.

There you go with the name calling. Let's keep this thread on track, one person already threw it way off already.

To ignore you go.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #341 on: September 11, 2011, 10:08:01 pm »
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To ignore you go.

Heartbreaking.
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« Reply #342 on: September 11, 2011, 10:12:48 pm »
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I kinda doubt the SWP guy will get 4%. Not that that will help Weprin. My guess for Tuesday is 52-47 Turner.
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J. J.
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« Reply #343 on: September 11, 2011, 10:15:13 pm »
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NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #344 on: September 11, 2011, 10:19:04 pm »
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I do have to scratch my head at this being leaked at the last minute. Surely a 25-year-old court case can't be that impressive a finishing blow. Of course, they did it to Phil Kellam in 2006 here in VA-02...
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nclib
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« Reply #345 on: September 11, 2011, 10:20:54 pm »
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Has Turner even run as a moderate, or at least less right-wing than the overall GOP? It would be even more disappointing to lose this if he hasn't.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #346 on: September 11, 2011, 10:22:51 pm »
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I know where Al's coming from in both of his posts.  This type of deterioration among these types of voters would spell real trouble.

Israel appears to be an significant issue in the campaign.  Also appears same-sex marriage is an issue as well (though a good bit less). (awaits tirades from all sides)

If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

Anyway, we'll see in a couple of days.
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« Reply #347 on: September 11, 2011, 10:32:20 pm »
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I've always been of the opinion that we were in trouble here because of Obama rather than Weprin's weaknesses as a candidate and his local selection, this poll confirms that.  Weprin has never been unpopular in the polls.

I don't understand what Turner has done to receive those numbers though, he strikes me as an awful, awful candidate who should be garnering no support from swing voters (his stances on taxes, medicare and social security should not be playing well here). His attacks against Weprin using the Mosque and 9/11 while condemning the DCCC for using a plane in their ad show his campaign's character. if people eat that pile of fecal matter up, this country is doomed.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2011, 10:36:13 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



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« Reply #348 on: September 11, 2011, 10:48:18 pm »
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I kinda doubt the SWP guy will get 4%. Not that that will help Weprin. My guess for Tuesday is 52-47 Turner.

Yup.
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« Reply #349 on: September 11, 2011, 11:13:11 pm »
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One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didnít show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and weíll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. Thatís a really big cause for concern.
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this is real
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