NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Meeker]

Does anyone have the Siena poll's internals? Someone told me they had Obama with a 45% approval rating.

[NY Jew]

NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.

Q12 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%


Importance of Same-Sex Marriage on Vote (Orthodox Jews are always unrepresented in these polls)
Jewish Very 32%
Catholic Very 29%

unfortunately this poll doesn't ask enough questions (like dividing Jews up)

[NY Jew]

Has Turner even run as a moderate, or at least less right-wing than the overall GOP? It would be even more disappointing to lose this if he hasn't.

we'll you'll be happy to know he ran a lot more moderate (so much so that if he didn't have a lot of outside help (and I don't mean normal campaign staffers) he would have lost drastically) a campaign than last time.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Does anyone have the Siena poll's internals? Someone told me they had Obama with a 45% approval rating.

Here. No "approval" question, but they show Obama with a 43% "favorable" rating. Nationally, Obama's personal favorables are 7+ greater than his job rating, according to RCP.

[CatoMinor]

R+1!

Congrats Kal, it looks like you may have been the first to call this if the polls are true.

[redcommander]

I've always been of the opinion that we were in trouble here because of Obama rather than Weprin's weaknesses as a candidate and his local selection, this poll confirms that.  Weprin has never been unpopular in the polls.

I don't understand what Turner has done to receive those numbers though, he strikes me as an awful, awful candidate who should be garnering no support from swing voters (his stances on taxes, medicare and social security should not be playing well here). His attacks against Weprin using the Mosque and 9/11 while condemning the DCCC for using a plane in their ad show his campaign's character. if people eat that pile of fecal matter up, this country is doomed.

Well Hochul and the DCC's campaign against Corwin wasn't exactly tame either, so it's not as if Democrats don't pull similar stunts to try and win special elections. What was throwing Granny off the cliff in NY-26, is going after Wepren for the Ground Zero Mosque in NY-9. Special elections come down to turnout, and the best way to maximize turnout is to sensationalize issues.

[minionofmidas]

I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

"Objectively sinful"? Wtf is that even supposed to mean? "Sinful" pretty much means "a sin according to the tradition of religion x [as defined by context, but usually Christian or some Christian tradition], irrespective of what the law or the rather minimal rules of "absolute morality" have to say on the subject".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And the moral of the story is "don't nominate a member of the New York Assembly for a special election to Congress".

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

"Objectively sinful"? Wtf is that even supposed to mean? "Sinful" pretty much means "a sin according to the tradition of religion x [as defined by context, but usually Christian or some Christian tradition], irrespective of what the law or the rather minimal rules of "absolute morality" have to say on the subject".

It's supposed to mean 'a phrase used in an argument with another religious person when a certain set of assumptions have already been established, mainly because the other religious person is obviously trolling anyway'.

[Tender Branson]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

I think NY-09 is a "special case" this year. People want to send a message after the sex scandal of Weiner and the district itself is trending away from the Democrats on the Presidential level. Considering that Obama got only 55% there and Gore almost 70%, it's not really so out of line that Obama might be in a tight battle with Romney or Perry in the district. Obama is also not really the most Pro-Israel candidate and that certainly isn't playing well with the large right-wing Jews in the district. Add to that a moderately popular Republican candidate, a clueless Democrat with no campaign skills and a DCCC with no campaign skills and you get a recipe for disaster tomorrow.

[Keystone Phil]

Is Turner actually popular though? I thought I remember some people here saying that this race was over for the GOP when that City Councilman passed on running and Turner got the nomination. I also thought that Turner was pretty damn conservative.

[Tender Branson]

Is Turner actually popular though? I thought I remember some people here saying that this race was over for the GOP when that City Councilman passed on running and Turner got the nomination. I also thought that Turner was pretty damn conservative.

PPP says yes:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner?

Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin?

Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NY9_9111118.pdf

Siena also:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner?

Favorable........................................................ 48%
Unfavorable .................................................... 34%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin?

Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf

[Brittain33]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

Yep, for two reasons.

[Tender Branson]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

Yep, for two reasons.

*big picture of Joe Lieberman*

*big picture of W*

It still trended away, even without this factor:

2000: Gore 48%, NY-09: 67% Gore (+19)
2004: Kerry 48%, NY-09: 56% Kerry (+8)
2008: Obama 53%, NY-09: 55% Obama (+2)

So, the Lieberman factor probably added +5 to Gore in the district.

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle), Obama's 2012 percentage in NY-09 should be about 4% less than his national result. Considering Obama is currently in a tie with Romney and Perry nationally at about 47% each, Obama should have about 43% against them in NY-09.

Which is about what PPP said.

[rob in cal]

If there are just three candidates on the ballot are the Greens and Independence parties giving their ballot line to either Turner or Weprin?  I'm assuming Working Families goes to Weprin and Conservative to Turner.

[Torie]

It is just so special that Weiner quit right before redistricting. His CD is now going to live on,  and be way out of reach of the Dems.  Mr. Weiner had an impact on history which will have legs. Isn't that special? 

[Brittain33]

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle),

Would you extrapolate a trend line from two data points (the change from 2000 to 2004, and from 2004 to 2008)?

Here's how I see it:

2000: Dems way overperform because Lieberman is on the ticket and Bush is a terrible candidate for the NYC metro area.
2004: Absence of Lieberman causes regression to the mean for here, also people vote more R over 9/11 and Iraq war
2008: Obama only treads water here while doing better elsewhere because he does badly among olds and old Jewish Dems in particular (see FL-22 as well)
2011: Continues to crater among old people and Jewish Dems.

[NY Jew]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

I think NY-09 is a "special case" this year. People want to send a message after the sex scandal of Weiner and the district itself is trending away from the Democrats on the Presidential level. Considering that Obama got only 55% there and Gore almost 70%, it's not really so out of line that Obama might be in a tight battle with Romney or Perry in the district. Obama is also not really the most Pro-Israel candidate and that certainly isn't playing well with the large right-wing Jews in the district. Add to that a moderately popular Republican candidate, a clueless Democrat with no campaign skills and a DCCC with no campaign skills and you get a recipe for disaster tomorrow.

Turner's Jewish vote in the last poll was 6 points above his popularity.  (anyone who doesn't think that 40 rabbis (including some of the biggest (most respected in Orthodox circles) rabbis in America today) forbidding voting for Weprin is a major factor in this race is way to clueless to understand why this election will be lost)

[NY Jew]

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle),

Would you extrapolate a trend line from two data points (the change from 2000 to 2004, and from 2004 to 2008)?

Here's how I see it:

2000: Dems way overperform because Lieberman is on the ticket and Bush is a terrible candidate for the NYC metro area.
2004: Absence of Lieberman causes regression to the mean for here, also people vote more R over 9/11 and Iraq war
2008: Obama only treads water here while doing better elsewhere because he does badly among olds and old Jewish Dems in particular (see FL-22 as well)
2011: Continues to crater among old people and Jewish Dems.

the answer is Orthodox Jews who have changed their voting habits more towards the GOP thanks to the postions of the current democratic party plus many areas in this district have a lot more orthodox jews then they had 10 years ago ex. Marine Park, Kew Garden Hills ext.

[Progressive]

Is Weprin done at this point? A poll from PPP has Turner>Weprin 47-41.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Weprin done at this point?

Yes.

[DrScholl]

It is just so special that Weiner quit right before redistricting. His CD is now going to live on,  and be way out of reach of the Dems.  Mr. Weiner had an impact on history which will have legs. Isn't that special? 

It's still getting cut. There is no way Democrats are going to agree to give Turner a safe seat and eliminate a Democratic seat somewhere else, that would be tantamount to eliminating to Democratic seats. Controlling the state senate narrowly is hardly enough for Republicans to force a map that favorable.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing the path whereby Republicans are allowed to play hardball. If it goes to the courts, this district is likely going to be changed dramatically.

[NY Jew]

dedicated to all my critics (hope you have fun tomorrow, because the Jewish Community will be happy though we would have been much happier if this election was not necessary (and I wasn't referring to Weiner's problems (though that too)))
just to repost some of the comments that were said after I made my prediction on August 11th that this will be won based on marriage redefinition (now even a Philip Goldfeder (Orthodox politician running for the 23 Assembly district) is trying to separate him self from Weprin based on that)

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.

[NY Jew]

Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing the path whereby Republicans are allowed to play hardball. If it goes to the courts, this district is likely going to be changed dramatically.

they can't change it to dramatically in Brooklyn other wise this district would get in to trouble with the voting rights act or become even more Conservative.