NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

from the largest Orthodox paper todays edition
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=fd88eade5b1a47698f86ee741ef5da94

and read this interview with Weprin on page 15 (and tell me marriage wasn't the big issue)
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=4224c51b74ef4a0aa0a7e453049c9e02

[Keystone Phil]

I'm predicting a 51% to 48% win for Turner.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Turner 53%
Weprin 46%

[Tender Branson]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

[NY Jew]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277046/marriage-and-remarkable-turner-surprise-kathryn-jean-lopez

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/103093/YWN-MAILBAG%3A-Only-A-Few-Hours-Left-For-NY-9.html

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

[Keystone Phil]

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

But does it have to do with gay marriage?

[cinyc]

One person's endorsement that Weprin probably could have done without:
Weiner votes for Weprin, says it would be 'bad' if Republican won.

[Progressive]

My friends in NY 09 (Kew Gardens and Forest Hills) tell me that Weprin people are out in full force at every precinct...like a dozen people at each precinct.

Could Weprin pull it off?

[DrScholl]

Structurally, it's definitely possible for Weprin to scrape together enough votes. It can be difficult at this late stage, but not impossible.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277046/marriage-and-remarkable-turner-surprise-kathryn-jean-lopez

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/103093/YWN-MAILBAG%3A-Only-A-Few-Hours-Left-For-NY-9.html

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

yes

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My friends in NY 09 (Kew Gardens and Forest Hills) tell me that Weprin people are out in full force at every precinct...like a dozen people at each precinct.

Could Weprin pull it off?

no

[Napoleon]

One person's endorsement that Weprin probably could have done without:
Weiner votes for Weprin, says it would be 'bad' if Republican won.

All 435 should be Democrats!

[Wonkish1]

Look the only outcome after Turner wins this race is:
Before: Redistricting was likely going to be decided by the courts
Now: Redistricting will likely be a compromise "incumbency protection" bill

"I trade you my 'likely to lose soon' Dem congressman in GOP district for your 'likely to lose soon' GOP congressman in Dem district and everything else stays pretty close to the same.

For those that disagree with that:
1) If you are a Dem thinking you are entitled to two seats given up by the GOP why do you think the GOP senate would ever agree to that
2) If you are GOP thinking the exact opposite...I point you to number 1.
3) If you think that it makes more sense for your particular party to let the courts decide, your wrong. The courts will produce a similar delegation map except the NY politicians will likely wonder if so and so court could put me on the chopping block for no gain...better to cut a deal now and protect me!!!!!!!!!!!!

The real story here is: Why are the Dems blowing a ton of money on a race that doesn't matter much, AGAIN? My guess is that state bills and the economy have dropped union dues by at least 15% nationally in just the last 4 years and the Left are acting like they have money to piss around on nothing.

Like right after WEA threw the kitchen sink at the WI senate when they knew that the new redistricting bill was going to make sure they didn't have the WI senate after 2012 anyway. Election ends and they lay off 60% of their union staff and are now out of the 2012 race.

I for one will continue to applaud the stupidity of Dem campaign committees and their 527s/501c(4)s blowing money on meaningless races.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll try to be the optimist here, just because I'll be the only one with bragging rights if I'm right:

Weprin 50%
Turner 49%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I say Weprin 51.5%, Turner 47%, just to deny BRTD his bragging rights in case Weprin wins.

[Rowan]

"GOTV will win it for us!" is usually a death knell.

[DrScholl]

50% Weprin
47% Turner

As I said, the structure of the district makes it not a guaranteed win for the Republican. This isn't an R+ district by any stretch.

[J. J.]

"GOTV will win it for us!" is usually a death knell.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections: "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

This is close to that violation.

Turner 54%
Weprin 45%

[Keystone Phil]

like a dozen people at each precinct.

I don't understand this tactic. Have all but two of them go knock on doors somewhere (not that I mind Weprin wasting his people...). Already have people knocking? Ok. Add some more. Or have them do phone calls.

We had a major City Council primary in the district just south of mine this past May. Both of the Dems had a dozen people at almost every polling place. They were just huddled around, with one or two of them really working. I understand strength in numbers but this is just a waste.

[Wonkish1]

The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

[Sbane]

Turner 50
Weprin 48

Pulled the numbers completely out my ass. I nailed the special election in CA even though I wasn't anywhere close to there for a year or two, so why not in NYC?

[Phony Moderate]

The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Just heard that African American turnout is at 2008 levels.  This will be very close.

lol, good trolling.

[Wonkish1]

The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?

Talking about how Dems are blowing money on a race that wont have much consequence after redistricting and how they are putting way to many people at the polls that should be door knocking.

Its interesting to watch the Dems being horrible stewards of their own election resources and money. I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later given how bad they are with other peoples money in government.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

After playing around with the 2010 Weiner/Turner numbers and '08 Presidential numbers, I think Weprin's going to have to get about 54-55% in Queens and 39-40% in Brooklyn to win. Of course, if turnout is down in Queens relative to Brooklyn (it was about 70-30 in both of the previous elections), it gets significantly harder for Weprin to pull off a win.