NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Orthodox Jews are only Republican based on a few issues (though the democrats keep expanding this number) and most Orthodox Jews never would have abandoned Weprin if not for this vote (watch when the special election ED by ED numbers come out for the 27 AD and compare Weprin and Simanowitz's numbers and you'll see that many voted for the democrat in 1 race and the Republican in the other)
here's the results for the whole district (many of the traditional republican areas aren't in the 9th CD)
Simanowitz (D) 6,448 76%-DeSena (R) 2,032 24% (this district includes McCains best areas in Queens proper (and I'm sure that you were seeing numbers here like 80% for Simanowitz and 80% for Turner) (not including the Rockways))


in regards to the Catholics many Hispanics here and therefore would be changed votes.

don't confuse very important with 1 issue voters.

[NY Jew]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

depends what follows or precedes it (in other words it's neutral)

[Meeker]

Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?

[BigSkyBob]

Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?

Never? Somebody noted that there were a large number of empty precincts in the district.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry 2016!]

Props to Michael Tomasky.

[Lunar]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

http://tinyurl.com/3zuawa4

[Wonkish1]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

http://tinyurl.com/3zuawa4

Way to post one of those that doesn't lead to the question being answered. Google seems to think I should be searching for "jewelry"

[J. J.]

NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

In the 1970's it was common to see banners on synagogues that said, "Save the Soviet Jewry."

[Tender Branson]

A new motto for the NY-09 Democrats:

"Yesterday we stumbled across Anthony's weiner, now on to a brighter future and victory in 2012 !"

[Keystone Phil]

“The New York election was bizarre, just totally bizarre,” said Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.). “It was about Israel, it was about gay marriage, it was about all sorts of local issues. It was not a referendum on anything outside of that district.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63512.html#ixzz1Xxo8ynLR


I wasn't aware that gay marriage and matters related to Israel only happened in NY 9, Congressman.

[NY Jew]

http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/09/heard-around-town-sept-14-2011/

[Lief]

I haven't really read this thread (because this) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?



So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

[Keystone Phil]

That's hilarious! The presence of the flag, of course; not Lief's anti-Semitism.

[NY Jew]

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2093186,00.html

"In some places, government has moved ahead while the nation debates. New York in July became the sixth state, along with the District of Columbia, to legalize same-sex marriage. Still, the issue played a part in the special election Tuesday to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. Democrat David Weprin's support for gay marriage cost him support among the district's Orthodox Jews, and he lost to Republican Bob Turner.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2093186,00.html#ixzz1XxypQGek
"

[MilesC56]

So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Agreed.

[Gravis Marketing]

This one leaps past NY-13 to become the most densely populated district represented by a Republican.

[The Vorlon]

“The New York election was bizarre, just totally bizarre,” said Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.). “It was about Israel, it was about gay marriage, it was about all sorts of local issues. It was not a referendum on anything outside of that district.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63512.html#ixzz1Xxo8ynLR


I wasn't aware that gay marriage and matters related to Israel only happened in NY 9, Congressman.

I don't think Obama and his policies had anything at all to do with the GOP win in this seat.

I suggest Obama and the Democrats ignore any impulse to change direction and continue upon the path to peace and prosperity that they have so firmly placed the nation upon.

By staying true to their current policies, I am sure 2012 will be a resounding victory.

[J. J.]

I think a lot of it was about Obama's stand on Israel and same sex marriage, but not all of it.  Queens was not an Orthodox stronghold.  Some of it is the economy.

There is another problem.  Jews have traditionally supported Democratic candidates and supported Obama in the last election.  All D presidential nominees since 1928 have gotten at least a plurality of the Jewish vote.  Except for Carter in 1980, all got more than 60%.  http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

This election is an indication that Obama might be below the 60% range, possibly below the 50% mark.  That should trouble any Obama supporter, especially if you look at the states with a fairly large Jewish population.

And Lief, thank you for helping drive Jewish voters away from Obama.

I haven't really read this thread (because this) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?



So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

[Invisible Obama]

Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

[BigSkyBob]

Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

No, I would conclude that Obama is losing Jewish voters because self-described "Jews" in various polls indicate that that is the case.

[J. J.]

Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.

[Invisible Obama]

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.

My point is about using special elections to predict future general elections, it just doesn't work, because special elections can be very unpredictable. This isn't a partisan thing, I wouldn't use a Republican losing a special election to predict anything either.

[Gustaf]

I haven't really read this thread (because this) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?



So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Yeah, better watch out for those Jews. You never know where their true loyalties lie.

[Sibboleth]

Once again, why does everyone think this district is Tel Aviv West? Of course it has a massive (and diverse) Jewish population, but then it's majority white and in New York City...

Look, if this result can be seen as any kind of warning, it isn't really because of the district's Jewishness (not directly, anyway). Your hat wearers (can people who are not Orthodox Jews buy those, by the way?) and so on will not be voting for him anyway, and I somehow doubt that all non-Jewish groups in the district voted for Weprin...

[J. J.]

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.

My point is about using special elections to predict future general elections, it just doesn't work, because special elections can be very unpredictable. This isn't a partisan thing, I wouldn't use a Republican losing a special election to predict anything either.

Well Defrazio, a D, that was saying it was "local issues." I agree that this was much, but not all of it.

If a conservative Mormon R would lose a special election in Montana for a seat that was R+5, I would call it troubling.  Unlike some of liberals here, I would not be in denial about it.